Expires:201612232100;;330878
FPUS51 KBTV 231136
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
634 AM EST FRI DEC 23 2016


VTZ006-232100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
634 AM EST FRI DEC 23 2016

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.SATURDAY...RAIN OR SNOW OR A CHANCE OF SLEET IN THE MORNING...THEN
RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.CHRISTMAS DAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO. 
.MONDAY...SLEET LIKELY OR A CHANCE OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY.
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN LIKELY OR A CHANCE OF SNOW.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 15. 
.WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
20S. LOWS 10 TO 15. 
.THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 30S. 

$$


Expires:201612231200;;330507
ASUS41 KBTV 231130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST FRI DEC 23 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-231200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    32  26  78 S5        30.21R WCI  27          
MONTPELIER     PTCLDY    30  23  75 W6        30.20R WCI  24          
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    34  23  64 SW9       30.19R WCI  27          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     31  26  82 MISG      30.17R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    30  24  81 CALM      30.18R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      26  26 100 CALM      30.23R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    30  24  78 CALM      30.23R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR     25  21  85 E5        30.21S WCI  19          
HIGHGATE*        N/A     34  28  77 S5        30.20R WCI  30          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    33  24  69 VRB5      30.25R WCI  29          
SUTTON*          N/A     28 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     27 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     27 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     23 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     19 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     36  30  80 SW9         N/A  WCI  29          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     39  28  65 SW9         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     32  30  93 S5          N/A  WCI  27          

$$


Expires:No;;330967
FXUS61 KBTV 231141
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
641 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region today and gradually moves
east of the area tonight. This feature will help promote dry
weather across the area during this time period. Clouds will
also be decreasing in areal coverage today with highs expected
to be in the 30s to around 40. Clouds will be on the increase
tonight as an upper level trough of low pressure moves toward
the region. This feature will eventually move across the area on
Saturday and thus expecting widespread light rain and snow. The
low exits the area Saturday night and high pressure returns for
Christmas Day...with dry weather expected along with highs in
the mid 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 641 AM EST Friday...Clouds have begun to erode rather 
quickly this morning in some areas...Saint Lawrence Valley and 
southeast Vermont...but still holding strong elsewhere in the 
northwest flow aloft. These clouds should linger through late 
morning before finally eroding and most areas should see some 
sunshine. Have tweaked the clouds to fit current scenario and 
then blended into the idea already in the grids of decreasing 
clouds. Otherwise a pretty quiet day with no precipitation 
expected. Looking at above normal temperatures again today with 
highs in the mid 30s to around 40.

Clouds will be on the increase tonight as the flow aloft backs
to the west and southwest ahead of approaching upper trough.
Looks like most areas will stay dry tonight with just parts of
northern New York and south central Vermont seeing the potential
for some very light mixed precipitation...generally trace
amounts.

Warmer air moves into the region on Saturday and high
temperatures will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Thus the bulk
of the precipitation will either be in the form of rain or snow.
Precipitation amounts will generally be a tenth of an inch or
less. Note there will be a 1 to 2 hour period at the onset of
the precipitation where a light mix may occur. This potential
will be primarily over parts of the Saint Lawrence Valley and
northern Adirondacks of New York and from the Green Mountains
eastward in Vermont. At this time...there should be very little
impact given how light the precipitation will be during this
transitional window.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EST Friday...Latter half of the holiday weekend 
continues to look fairly quiet with low pressure exiting 
northeast of the region Christmas Eve, and is replaced by 
surface high pressure and ridging aloft for Christmas Day and 
Sunday night. Lingering mountain snow showers Christmas Eve will
give way to clearing skies for Christmas Day with temps holding
at or above seasonal normals in the upper 20s to low 30s. Upper
ridge crests over the region Sunday night with good radiational
cooling leading to chilly Monday morning lows in the single 
digits below zero in the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks to 
single digits above zero elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 355 AM EST Friday...Active pattern continues in the 
extended period with overall very little change in the 00z model
suite from previous runs as we continue to highlight our next 
system which approaches Monday morning with strong low pressure 
moving out of the central CONUS on Sunday, tracking 
northeastward into the western Great Lakes by early Monday 
morning and across central Ontario/Quebec through Monday night. 
Models have remained very consistent depicting a strong warm 
front shifting into the Northeast with an impressive jet 
structure near 110kts at 500mb and 50-70kts at 925-850mb moving 
over the North Country Monday afternoon and night. Overall the 
Monday morning commute shouldn't be an issue with the bulk of 
precipitation holding off until the afternoon, but some light 
snow can't be ruled out. As precipitation shifts into the region
though around mid-day, thermal profiles will be as such that a 
wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain is likely for a 
period before the low levels warm sufficiently into the 
mid/upper 30s by Monday evening to support widespread rain as 
the dominant ptype. In fact, data suggests Monday's high temps 
for most of the forecast area will occur towards midnight, 
topping out in the mid/upper 30s east to low 40s west.

Attending cold front sweeps through during the early morning hours 
of Tuesday, transitioning any lingering rain showers back to snow, 
and we could see a little backside "bonus" snowfall on the higher 
summits behind the frontal passage with lingering low/mid level 
moisture and northwest flow supporting some upslope, but it'll 
likely be very light. Tuesday will also likely feature very gusty 
winds as the aforementioned jet continues to exit the region and the 
boundary layer becomes sufficiently mixed to support gusts in the 30-
40kt range from the northwest.

High pressure still looks to return for Wednesday and Wednesday 
night with dry conditions and more seasonal temperatures before 
another potentially impactful system swings in for the 
Thursday/Friday timeframe. Current guidance consensus indicates a 
deep trough digging into the central CONUS Wednesday night will 
spawn a strong surface low in the Ohio Valley vicinity Thursday 
morning, but thereafter models diverge on where the low tracks. 
ECMWF is west and warmer, GFS southeast and colder. It's a coin-flip 
out 7 days so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Looking at VFR and MVFR ceilings through
the morning hours with VFR conditions expected this afternoon
and night. Visibilities will also be in the VFR category through
the entire period. Light winds this morning will be increasing
out of the south and southwest later this morning and afternoon
with gusts in the 10 to 20 knot range. Winds relax tonight...but
low level wind shear will come into play across northern New
York...especially at KSLK after 03z with increasing southwest
winds aloft.

Outlook 12z Saturday through Monday... 
Very active pattern continues with system every couple of 
days...bringing changeable flying conditions...and with 
occasional gusty winds. Light rain and snow with ifr vis and 
mvfr cigs is likely on Saturday. High pres and vfr conditions 
are expected on Sunday...before next system with very strong 
southwest winds arrives with a mix of precip for Monday. Areas 
of turbulence and wind shear is likely Monday into Tuesday...given
4000 to 5000 foot winds of 55 to 65 knots.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Evenson/Taber

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