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January 2019, Week 1

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Subject:
From:
Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Sun, 6 Jan 2019 06:50:02 -0500
Content-Type:
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Expires:201901060900;;924606
FPUS51 KBTV 060530
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1227 AM EST Sun Jan 6 2019


VTZ006-060900-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
1227 AM EST Sun Jan 6 2019

.REST OF TONIGHT...Snow showers. Snow accumulation a dusting to
2 inches. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. Light and
variable winds. Chance of snow 90 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Snow showers. Total snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches.
Highs in the lower 30s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph. Gusts up to
35 mph in the afternoon. Chance of snow near 100 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of snow showers until
midnight, then clear after midnight. Lows around 1 above. Northwest
winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of snow
50 percent. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 19. Northwest winds 10 to
15 mph. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Snow. Light snow accumulation. Lows around 14.
Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of snow
80 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Snow or rain likely. Additional light snow accumulation
possible. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Snow showers likely. Little or no additional snow
accumulation. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of snow 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Snow showers likely. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of
snow 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Snow showers likely. Lows 15 to 20. Chance of
snow 70 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Highs
in the lower 20s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around 5 above. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs 15 to 20. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around zero. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 20s. 

$$


Expires:201901061200;;937376
ASUS41 KBTV 061130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN JAN 06 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-061200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT SNOW  34  31  88 SW3       29.70R FOG              
MONTPELIER     FLURRIES  31  30  96 N3        29.68S                  
MORRISVILLE    LGT SNOW  34  29  82 CALM      29.67R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     30  28  92 MISG      29.64R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FLURRIES  32  29  90 SW7       29.65R WCI  25          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    32  29  88 CALM      29.70R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    34  27  75 W6        29.69R WCI  29          
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    32  30  92 CALM      29.69R                  
HIGHGATE*      LGT SNOW  32  32 100 CALM      29.71R                  
NEWPORT*       LGT SNOW  30  30 100 CALM      29.65S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    34  30  85 SW5       29.72R WCI  30          
ISLAND POND*     N/A     30 N/A N/A W7          N/A  WCI  23          
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     30 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     30 N/A N/A S5          N/A  WCI  25          
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     25 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     34  32  93 NW5G12      N/A  WCI  30          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     37  32  81 NW6         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     34  32  93 E2          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;932948
FXUS61 KBTV 060938
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
438 AM EST Sun Jan 6 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moving through the region this morning will 
trigger some snow showers, resulting in minor accumulations 
through the earlier afternoon. Brisk northwesterly winds will 
increase today along and behind the front, and temperatures will
fall through the afternoon. Tonight will be chilly and drier
with high pressure building in. The next chance for widespread
precipitation comes Monday night as a warm front pushes through
the area. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 306 AM EST Sunday...A series of shortwaves moving through 
this morning along with a cold front at the surface will 
trigger blossoming snow showers through the morning hours. As a 
coastal low pulls further from the Canadian Maritimes region and
a central Canadian surface High builds into eastern Ontario, 
northwesterly flow will increase over the North Country today. 
Resultant orographic lift will provide the best low-level ascent
for snow over northwestern portions of the Adirondacks and 
Green Mountains this morning through afternoon. While the 
aforementioned higher elevations will see the highest snow 
accumulations today, blocked flow as indicated by forecast 
Froude Numbers will allow the northern Champlain Valley to get 
in on some of the snowfall early this morning (mainly between 
5AM and 10AM). Through the afternoon, Froude numbers increase in
response to increasing mid-level instability and increased 
northwesterly flow. This will allow snow to end west of the 
Greens by around noon at the latest, moving east of the Greens 
into the afternoon. By this point however, drier air aloft 
begins to work it's way in to the area, and snow showers will 
decrease in intensity and coverage. 

As far as accumulations go for today, limited deep moisture will 
hinder total accumulations and keep the forecast area at sub-
advisory criteria for snowfall. Expecting 2-4" along the 
northern Green Mountains and northwestern portions of the 
Adirondacks, 1-2" in the northeastern portions of the Champlain 
Valley (mainly Chittenden and Franklin Counties in Vermont), and
generally under an inch elsewhere. 

As the surface cold front pushes through the region today from 
northwest to southeast, increasing instability in the lower-levels 
will allow for brisk northwesterly winds to increase through 
the day. Peak winds during the afternoon in the 10-20 mph range 
can be expected with gusts 20 to 30 mph. High temperatures today
in the upper 20s to low 30s will be observed late this morning 
before falling through the afternoon in the wake of the cold 
front. 

Snow showers and winds will diminish into the evening hours,
ending overnight as high pressure builds in. Continued cold air
advection and clearing skies overnight will allow temperatures 
to fall to the single digits above and below zero overnight.
Monday will feature drier weather under continued high pressure.
Winds will turn southerly in advance of the next approaching
system over the Great Lakes, allowing for an increase in clouds
through the day and for highs to reach the upper teens to mid-
20s by Monday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 306 AM EST Sunday...Forecast remains on track with burst of
snow expected late Monday night into early Tuesday. Pronounced
temperature advection signal at 850 millibars moves across the area
during the overnight hours on Monday and this will enhance the
development of snow across the entire area. Not a lot of moisture
with this system but most areas should see snowfall amounts
generally in the 1 to 4 inch range. One item of note is the strong
southwest flow at 850 millibars Monday night into early Tuesday
which will enhance downslope conditions on the east side of the
northern Adirondacks and limit the amount of snow in parts of the
Champlain Valley as a result. Strengthening pressure gradient over
the area will also result in breezy conditions for parts of the
Champlain Valley. This tends to limit precipitation amounts as well.
The temperature advection at 850 millibars also coincides with a
warm front...which will move east of the area Tuesday morning. This
will help precipitation to taper off throughout the day. Warming
temperatures on Tuesday are expected with highs in the 30s and any
lingering precipitation Tuesday afternoon will likely be in the form
of rain or snow...but precipitation amounts will be rather light at
that point.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 306 AM EST Sunday...First half of the extended period...Tuesday
night through Thursday night...will be active. Shortwave trough
drops down from Canada late Tuesday night and strengthens as it
reaches the Gulf of Maine Wednesday morning. This feature will bring
some light snow back to the region during the overnight hours
Tuesday night and then as the flow turns more north and northwest
Wednesday into Thursday orographic snow will develop and mountains
should see accumulating snow through much of this period. Lower
elevations will also see some snow as temperatures will be cold
enough but amounts will not be as noticeable as in the mountains.
Will definitely be keeping an eye on this system. Colder and drier
weather is expected for Friday into Saturday with high pressure
moving down into the area from Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06z Monday...A mix of low VFR/MVFR ceilings will 
deteriorate through the night as snow showers blossom over the 
area. Areas of IFR ceilings/visibilities are possible between 
09Z and 15Z within snow showers, particularly at KMSS, KSLK, 
KBTV, and KMPV. A cold front will move through from northwest to
southeast during the mid to late morning hours, allowing for 
generally improving conditions after 15Z. 

Light and variable winds overnight will become northwesterly and
increase to 5 to 15 kts through the morning. Gusts 20 to 30 kts
will develop during the afternoon as surface based mixing
increases behind the cold front. Winds will peak during the
afternoon hours, then start to diminish into the evening. 

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible.
Likely SN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SN,
Likely RA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely
SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RSD
NEAR TERM...RSD
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...RSD

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