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October 2022, Week 5

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Date:
Mon, 31 Oct 2022 06:50:03 -0400
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Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
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Expires:202210311500;;372706
FPUS51 KBTV 310711
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
308 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022


VTZ018-311500-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
308 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

.TODAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 60. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers until
midnight, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers after
midnight. Lows around 50. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of
rain 30 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly
sunny. Highs around 60. Southwest winds around 10 mph. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Northwest
winds around 10 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. Light and
variable winds. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper
30s. Highs in the lower 60s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s.
Highs in the lower 60s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows around 50.
Highs in the mid 60s. 

$$


Expires:202210311100;;381639
ASUS41 KBTV 311030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON OCT 31 2022

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-311100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLEAR     49  27  42 CALM      30.01F                  
MONTPELIER     CLEAR     34  26  72 CALM      30.06S                  
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR     30  26  85 CALM      30.04S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     30  27  88 MISG      30.04S                  
LYNDONVILLE*     N/A     32  27  80 CALM      30.05S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      45  29  53 CALM      30.03F                  
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     36  28  73 SE6       30.05F WCI  31          
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR     32  29  88 CALM      30.07F                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      48  32  53 S5        30.00F                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      34  25  70 SW5       30.04R WCI  30          
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     38  25  59 VRB3      30.05F                  
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     45 N/A N/A SW21        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS

$$


Expires:No;;376464
FXUS61 KBTV 310821
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
421 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm and mostly dry week is anticipated across the North
Country as a ridge of high pressure continues. A weak
disturbance with limited moisture will produce more clouds today
with an isolated chance of a light rain showers tonight into
Tuesday. Temperatures will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s
through mid week, before warming into the mid 60s to lower 70s
possible by next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Monday...Fcst challenge is areal coverage of
very light precip possible tonight into Tuesday and if any
location wl measure. Water vapor shows mid/upper lvl moisture
advecting acrs our cwa this morning, with initial disorganized
s/w energy over northern Ohio Valley/central Great Lakes.
Additional s/w energy is crntly located over the central MS
River Valley and wl move into our cwa on Tues. For today,
initial 5h energy wl shear apart in the confluent flow aloft,
while helping to increase moisture profiles with pw values going
from 0.25 to 0.75 by this evening. Just expecting intervals of
mid/upper lvl clouds with first batch of energy and maybe some 
light virga returns over northern NY, but llvls are still very 
dry. Next 5h vort which is slightly stronger wl move into 
western PA/NY tonight and slide acrs the southern tier of NY on 
Tues with slightly better moisture as pws approach 1.0" However,
sfc convergence is minimal and 850 to 500mb moisture fields 
continue to be very disorganized along with progged 850 to 700mb
uvv's acrs our cwa. Have continued with schc/chc pops for 
tonight into Tuesday with best potential for a few sprinkles or 
a light shower acrs the High Peaks into the mtns of VT. Have 
noted soundings showing llvl moisture becoming trapped below 
developing subsidence inversion on Tues aftn, but depth is very 
shallow < 4000 feet, so not confident in drizzle potential attm.
Temps are tricky today with a mild start but more mid/upper lvl
clouds, so have stayed close to NBM supporting highs upper 50s 
to mid 60s. A mild night with clouds and areas of light showers 
anticipated with lows mainly in the 40s to lower 50s. No 
significant change in thermal profiles are noted for Tues, with 
highs back into the upper 50s to mid 60s anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 421 AM EDT Monday...By Tuesday night, the upper shortwave will
depart eastward resulting in northwest flow across the North
Country. A brief period of drizzle is possible overnight as moisture
aloft quickly wanes, though it is quite possible that we see some
combination of fog/low stratus instead. Overnight temperatures will
be in the 40s. By Wednesday, high pressure will be firmly in place
resulting in dry weather and above normal temperatures with highs in
the upper 50s/low 60s. Wednesday night still looks to be the
chilliest night of the week thanks to radiational cooling with lows
in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 421 AM EDT Monday...Above normal temperatures continue through
the end of the week as we enter a period of prolonged dry weather
and warming temperatures. This is due to ridging becoming anchored
off the East Coast. The persistent southwest flow during this time
along with steadily increasing winds and dry weather will allow
temperatures to warm to near record levels by the end of the week.
At this time, daytime high temperatures are expected in the mid 60s
to low 70s with overnight lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. The
frontal system that was once progged to bring rain to the North
Country next weekend is now looking to remain north of the Canadian
border thanks to the strength of the Atlantic ridging. This drier
pattern also supports the existence of anomalously warm temperatures
through the weekend. While there is now little hope of any
meaningful precipitation in the extended forecast, there is still a
chance we may see some rain early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR conditions prevail at all taf sites
through 00z this evening, as intervals of mid/upper level clouds
streak from southwest to northeast across the region. These
clouds will lower toward MVFR cigs btwn 03z-06z at MSS/SLK with
broken to overcast between 5000 and 8000 feet anticipated at the
other sites. Winds are light and terrain driven this morning,
which result in 140@06kts at RUT, with all sites becoming
south/southwest 4 to 8 knots on Monday. A light sprinkle or two
is possible toward 06z Tuesday, but no obstruction to vis is
anticipated attm. 

Outlook...

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Hammond
LONG TERM...Hammond
AVIATION...Taber

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