Expires:202209022000;;099062
FPUS51 KBTV 020741
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
337 AM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022
VTZ018-022000-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
337 AM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022
.TODAY...Sunny, warmer with highs in the mid 70s. Light and
variable winds, becoming southwest around 10 mph this afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear until midnight, then becoming partly
cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Light and variable winds, becoming
south around 10 mph after midnight.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. South winds
around 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. South winds
around 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the
upper 60s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 50s.
.LABOR DAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 60s.
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s.
Highs in the lower 70s.
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s.
Highs in the mid 70s.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...Clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs
in the upper 70s.
$$
Expires:202209021100;;106722
ASUS41 KBTV 021030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2022
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-021100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLEAR 49 46 90 CALM 30.20
MONTPELIER PTCLDY 43 39 86 CALM 30.27R FOG
MORRISVILLE FOG 41 39 93 CALM 30.24R VSB<1/4
LYNDONVILLE* N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG N/A
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 44 44 100 CALM 30.23R
RUTLAND* CLEAR 46 44 93 SE7 30.23
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 44 43 96 CALM 30.26R FOG
HIGHGATE* FAIR 47 46 97 SE5 30.20R
NEWPORT* FAIR 42 40 91 S5 30.22R
BENNINGTON PTCLDY 43 42 97 CALM 30.23R FOG
ISLAND POND* N/A 37 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 36 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 41 N/A N/A CALM N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 48 N/A N/A CALM N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 55 50 82 N9 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 55 54 94 SE13 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 50 48 93 SE12 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;100201
FXUS61 KBTV 020804
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
404 AM EDT Fri Sep 2 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
After a cool start this morning, temperatures will warm under clear
skies and southerly winds into the mid and upper 70s to around 80
degrees for broader valleys. Saturday will start warmer than today
with another warm and dry afternoon expected. A cold front will move
through the North Country Sunday bringing chances of showers and
thunderstorms with showers lingering into Labor Day.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 403 AM EDT Friday...Temperatures have trended quite cool
this morning with expected lows running around 10 degrees below
average; expect to need a jacket if you have morning plans
outdoors. Outside of some morning fog in typical locations,
skies will be mostly clear today with flow turning southerly for
valleys and westerly atop ridges as high pressure slides
eastward. 925mb temperatures are supportive of high temperatures
in the mid/upper 70s for most locations, low/mid 70s for
northeastern Vermont, and upper 70s to around 80 for broad
valleys. Clear skies and decent radiational cooling is expected
after sunset with upper level clouds building in after midnight.
Temperatures will likely cool quickly before slowing as clouds
increase overnight. This will allow for Saturday to start warmer
than today and result in a few degrees of further warming for
the afternoon hours with highs reaching the low 80s in the
Champlain, St Lawrence, and lower Connecticut River valleys with
upper 70s elsewhere. A bit of an uptick in winds is expected as
well as the pressure gradient marginally tights with low
pressure starting to track towards the North Country. The main
change from the previous forecast was to delay precipitation
chances with models indicating a slower approach of low
pressure. This effectively removed chances of showers from
northern New York for Saturday afternoon/evening with only
slight chances moving into the Saint Lawrence Valley after
sunset.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
As of 403 AM EDT Friday...A shallow, but relatively sharp, cold
front will settle southeastward across nrn NY and VT Saturday
night into Sunday. While forcing aloft isn't particularly
strong, weak mid- level cyclonic flow will help sustain
scattered shower activity across nrn NY into far northwestern VT
during the overnight hours Saturday night. Included PoPs of
30-50% across far nwrn VT and across the St. Lawrence Valley,
with lesser chances for rainfall further south and east. There
remains some modest SBCAPE during the 00-03Z Sunday period, and
maintained a slight chance of thunderstorms across nrn NY thru
the late evening hours. Should see surface winds shift into the
north by 08Z across the St. Lawrence Valley, and during the
10-12Z period early Sunday morning across the Champlain Valley.
Late onset of low-level CAA will have little overall impact on
the overnight lows, with readings in the upper 50s to lower 60s
generally expected.
Compared to the previous fcst, have lowered temperatures on Sunday,
as north winds, cloud cover, and overall low-level CAA is more
pronounced in the 00Z NWP guidance suite. The cold front will be
settling southward during the morning and early afternoon hours. As
such, should see a significant north-south temperature gradient as
strong heating results in highs in the lower 80s across portions of
the CT River Valley. Meanwhile, should see highs in the low-mid 60s
from BTV north and west. NAM model soundings suggest saturation in
frontal inversion layer 950-800mb layer, and could see some
continued light showers or morning drizzle across much of
central/nrn VT wwd into the Adirondacks. Meanwhile, development of
surface-based instability and frontal convergence will bring a
chance of thunderstorms across Rutland/Windsor/Orange counties
during the early to mid aftn hours until frontal zone clears our
region to the south and east. PoPs peak around 50% across s-central
VT during the early/mid aftn hours, with lower PoPs to the north.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 403 AM EDT Friday...Have seen some changes in the 00Z
GFS/CMC/ECMWF to suggest higher PoPs for Sunday night into Monday.
Frontal zone should become quasi- stationary Sunday night across
southern New England, and global models suggest a mid-level trough
will translate enewd in the frontal zone across NY and central New
England. The 00Z ECMWF even forms a closed 700-500mb low across the
lower Great Lakes region Monday night, but that appears to be an
outlier attm. If mid-level trough progresses enewd as currently
expected, should see mostly cloudy conditions and some increase in
light stratiform rainfall late Sunday night through Monday,
especially across the southern half of the forecast area. Clouds
should keep highs in the lower 70s in most valley locations. Have
raised PoPs to 40-55% for Monday from Montpelier southward across
s-central VT. Should then see a trend toward warmer and drier mid-
week conditions as deep-layer ridge builds ewd across NY and New
England, and low-level frontal zone gradually dissipates. Should see
valley high temperatures back into the mid-upper 70s for Tuesday,
and back into the lower 80s for Wednesday and Thursday. Some
increase in humidity is expected, with dewpoints climbing back to
near 60F Wed/Thu time frame.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Winds have fully decoupled with tertiary
effects controlling speeds for area terminals. Most locations
are calm with RUT maintaining a southeasterly downslope wind
5-10kts. Temperatures and dew points continue to fall well below
crossover values continuing to support the idea of some fog for
more susceptible terminals like SLK and EFK. Drier conditions
yesterday may have dried soils sufficiently to preclude fog at
MPV, but cannot rule out some BCFG around the terminal.
Otherwise, still expecting VLIFR to IFR conditions for SLK
08-12Z and added some IFR VIS restrictions to EFK 09-12Z.
Light southerly flow of 5-10kts develops today with a lake
breeze for PBG allowing for some gusts around 15kts this
afternoon. Currently VFR conditions across the North Country
with clearing skies. Expecting another night of decoupling after
00Z with calm winds except for more downslope winds 5-12kts at
RUT. Skies, outside of fog, will generally be clear, but some
thick stratocumulus could develop over terrain this afternoon.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA at MSS.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Labor Day: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Boyd
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