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January 2019, Week 1

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Subject:
From:
Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Sat, 5 Jan 2019 06:50:02 -0500
Content-Type:
text/plain
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Expires:201901052100;;886526
FPUS51 KBTV 051127
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
624 AM EST Sat Jan 5 2019


VTZ006-052100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
624 AM EST Sat Jan 5 2019

.TODAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. Light and variable
winds. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of snow showers until
midnight, then a chance of snow showers after midnight. Lows in the
mid 20s. Light and variable winds, becoming northwest around 10 mph
after midnight. Chance of snow 50 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Cloudy. Snow showers likely, mainly in the morning. Total
snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Highs in the lower 30s.
Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of snow
70 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around 3 above. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with
gusts up to 30 mph. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 19. North winds around 10 mph. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Snow. Light snow accumulation. Lows 10 to 15. Chance
of snow 90 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Snow or rain likely. Little or no additional snow
accumulation. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation
90 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Snow showers likely. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of
snow 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Snow showers likely. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of
snow 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Snow showers likely. Lows around 20. Chance of
snow 70 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the mid 20s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows 5 to 10 above. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 20. 

$$


Expires:201901051200;;886702
ASUS41 KBTV 051130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SAT JAN 05 2019

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-051200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      26  24  92 CALM      29.64F                  
MONTPELIER     FOG       19  18  95 CALM      29.67F VSB 3/4          
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY    13  12  96 CALM      29.66F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     16  14  92 MISG      29.67S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      18  16  94 CALM      29.66F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      28  26  94 CALM      29.63F                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      25  25 100 CALM      29.66F                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      25  24  99 CALM      29.66R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      18  17  97 CALM      29.66R                  
BENNINGTON     FRZ RAIN  32  29  88 CALM      29.60F                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A      7 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     14 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     12 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     28 N/A N/A SW2         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     32  30  93 S3          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     34  32  93 SE7         N/A  WCI  28          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     32  32 100 S2          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;879893
FXUS61 KBTV 050855
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
355 AM EST Sat Jan 5 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the New England Coast will bring some 
precipitation to southern Vermont today, but the rest of the
forecast area will remain dry. A cold frontal passage Sunday
morning will trigger snow showers and some breezy northwesterly
winds for the latter half of the weekend, and mark the 
beginning of a cooling trend through Monday. The next chance for
precipitation comes Monday night through Tuesday as a warm 
front lifts through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 350 AM EST Saturday...Low pressure situated to our south 
will shift off the Mid-Atlantic Coast later this morning and 
lift to the northeast off the New England Coast through the day.
Precipitation associated with the feature will brush southern 
portions of the forecast area today, bringing some snow and rain
to southern Rutland and southern Windsor counties. Any snow 
accumulations in these counties will be little more than a 
dusting before the transition to rain occurs. The remainder of 
the forecast area will stay dry today under weak high pressure. 
As the aforementioned low pressure system lifts further 
northeast today, light northerly flow will commence...pulling
down some low-level moisture/low clouds lingering just north of
the Canadian Border. This increasing cloud cover, combined with
weak cold air advection this afternoon, will cap temperatures a
few degrees cooler than yesterday. Still looking at a 
relatively warm day however; highs will be in the mid 30s to 
around 40. 

Cold air advection will increase overnight tonight as northwesterly 
flow strengthens. A shortwave aloft will trigger some snow 
showers overnight, especially in orographically favored 
northwestern portions of the Green Mountains and Adirondack 
Mountains. Favorable jet dynamics will further promote deep lift
over the region, however moisture will be limited to the low-
levels...limiting snow potential. Portions of the northern 
Greens and northern Adirondacks will receive 2-4 inches of 
fluffy snow, while lower elevations and areas further south will
see under an inch. SLRs will be in the 15 to 20:1 range, so the
snow will be of the light and powdery, generally less-impactful
variety. 

Highs Sunday in the upper 20s/low 30s will be reached early in
the day. A cold frontal passage during the late morning/early
afternoon will allow temperatures to drop through the remainder
of the day. Northwesterly winds will become quite gusty (10-20
mph with gusts up to 30 mph) during the day as surface-based
mixing increases in the wake of the frontal passage. Snow
showers will generally taper off through the day, especially in
lower elevations. Higher summits will likely hold on to snow
showers for a good portion of the day however as the upslope
northwesterly flow strengthens. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 350 AM EST Saturday...High pressure builds down from Canada
Sunday night into Monday and brings colder and drier weather to
the region. There may be some lingering snow showers in the 
mountains Sunday evening...especially over northern 
Vermont...but should end by midnight as vertical depth of 
moisture becomes limited. With clearing skies we should see lows
dropping into the single digits above zero...but there will be 
a few spots in the northern Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom 
dropping below zero. High temperatures on Monday will be in the 
upper teens to mid 20s with clouds increasing in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 350 AM EST Saturday...Burst of precipitation is expected over
the area Monday night into early Tuesday. This is in response to a
pronounced warm air advection pattern developing over the area in
association with an approaching warm front. Despite stronger
southwest flow...which could lead to some downsloping on the east
side of the northern Adirondacks...lift associated with the warm air
advection pattern should have all areas see snow overspreading the
area...especially after midnight. At this time can see at least 1 to
3 inches for the area before warm front/best lift moves east of the
area during the morning hours on Tuesday. Temperatures will also be
warming late Monday night into Tuesday and this could lead to some
of the precipitation changing from snow to rain toward the end of
the event. Tuesday night through Thursday things remain unsettled as
an upper trough gets established over the area and the threat for
additional precipitation...mainly in the form of snow showers...will
exist. The mountains will have the best chance for precipitation
with the flow generally being northwest. Some trying will take place
by Friday. Above normal temperatures are expected on Tuesday and
Wednesday with a trend toward below normal temperatures for Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Predominantly VFR conditions will continue
through the night with the exception of KMSS and KSLK, which
will see reduced visibilities and lowered ceilings with periods
of fog and mist overnight. Satellite imagery/observations show a
ribbon of MVFR clouds persisting just north of the Canadian
Border. As low pressure tracks northeastward off the New England
Coast today, developing northerly flow behind the low will pull
down some of this low-level moisture to our north...leading to 
a deterioration in flight conditions through the day and into
the evening.

Winds will generally be light and variable through the night,
then turn northerly during the day and then northwesterly after
00Z, remaining under 7 kts. 

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Chance SN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible.
Likely SN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SN,
Likely RA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RSD
NEAR TERM...RSD
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...RSD

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