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SKIVT-L  March 2017, Week 5

SKIVT-L March 2017, Week 5

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 30 Mar 2017 06:50:01 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (253 lines)

Expires:201703302000;;300576
FPUS51 KBTV 300752
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
349 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017


VTZ006-302000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
349 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 2 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

.TODAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. North winds around
10 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy until midnight...then becoming mostly
cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. Light and variable winds. 
.FRIDAY...Cloudy. Snow likely...mainly in the afternoon. Snow
accumulation a dusting to 2 inches possible. Highs in the mid 30s.
Light and variable winds...becoming southeast around 10 mph in the
afternoon. Chance of snow 70 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Snow. Additional light snow accumulation. Lows in
the upper 20s. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of snow
90 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Snow or a chance of rain showers. Additional light snow
accumulation. Highs in the upper 30s. Light and variable winds.
Chance of precipitation 80 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Lows in the upper 20s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of snow showers. Highs in the
lower 40s. Chance of snow 40 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 20s. 
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 40. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow. Highs in the
lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Lows in the
upper 20s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. 

$$


Expires:201703301100;;307838
ASUS41 KBTV 301030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-301100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    33  21  61 N8        30.27R WCI  26          
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    30  18  60 N10       30.23R WCI  21          
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR     29  17  61 N6        30.25R WCI  23          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     31  20  63 MISG      30.19R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      27  18  67 W8        30.20R WCI  19          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    32  22  66 N3        30.24R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    28  20  71 CALM      30.22R                  
SPRINGFIELD    PTCLDY    33  14  45 VRB7      30.22R WCI  27          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      29  20  69 CALM      30.28R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      26  16  65 NW8       30.23R WCI  18          
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     31  17  56 NW7       30.22R WCI  24          
SUTTON*          N/A     25 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     27 N/A N/A NW8         N/A  WCI  18          
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     23 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     34 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     14 N/A N/A N8          N/A  WCI   3          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     32  25  74 NE2         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     34  27  75 N15         N/A  WCI  24          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     36  27  69 N17         N/A  WCI  25          

$$


Expires:No;;303455
FXUS61 KBTV 300837
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
437 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the area today with sunny to partly 
sunny skies and seasonable early spring temperatures. Low pressure 
will approach and pass south of the area on Friday into Saturday 
with a widespread wet accumulating snow expected. The snow may mix 
with or change to rain in lower elevations on Friday. Dry weather 
returns by Sunday into Monday before additional rains and snows 
arrive by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 437 AM EDT Thursday...Nice weather expected across the 
area today as surface high pressure bridges across the 
northeast. Sunny to partly sunny skies are expected for most of 
the day under light northerly breezes as high temperatures top 
out in the upper 30s to lower 40s, perhaps a few mid 40s in 
milder lower elevation locales. High clouds will begin to move 
into the southwestern portions of the forecast area toward late 
afternoon/early evening, and thicken/lower across the entire 
area tonight in advance of our next weather maker. Light snow 
will move into our far south and southwestern counties late with
minor accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches possible, but the 
bulk of the precipitation for the area should hold off until 
Friday. Lows tonight mainly in the 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 437 AM EDT Thursday...The system referenced above will 
take the form of surface low pressure and upper closed energy 
tracking east from the Ohio Valley states tonight into Friday 
and into the Mid Atlantic and offshore environs by Friday 
night/Saturday with widespread precipitation expected. Thermal 
profiles continue to suggest p-type (rain/snow) will be governed
heavily by boundary layer temperatures, quite typical during 
early spring events. Some brief mix with sleet may be possible 
across southern counties per mid level warm nose shown in most 
recent NAM output. Given this model has a more northward surface
low track and is really the only output showing this have 
omitted any reference to sleet at this point. In terms of timing
and amounts, the latest information suggests snow will arrive 
into southwestern counties toward Friday morning and advance 
northeast through the remainder of the forecast area during the 
day on Friday into Friday night. A possible mix with or 
changeover to a cold rain will be possible in lower elevations 
below 1000 feet during the daylight hours. Complicating the 
scenario will be how ground temperatures govern daytime 
accumulations in these lower, valley sites. Climo would suggest 
only a modest impact to roads in most areas through the day on 
Friday with greater impacts expected Friday evening/night in 
response to loss of insolation and slightly cooler temperatures.
Put considerable work into snow ratio output, leaning on the 
lower side of guidance in the 8-10:1 range in lower elevations 
and staggering progressively upward into the 10-13:1 range in 
the higher terrain. QPF from Friday into Saturday morning is a 
blended output of NAM/GFS/Consensus model/WPC blend with a 
slight downward adjustment given the rather high output as 
suggested by the NAM. This would support amounts ranging from 
one third to two thirds of an inch north and two thirds to an 
inch south. Snowfall output suggests 30 hour totals from 2-4 
inches in the Champlain/St Lawrence Valley with only minor 
impacts, 3 to 7 inches in much of the northern higher terrain 
and lower elevations of southern VT, and 6 to 12 inches across 
higher elevations of Essex County, NY and the southern Green 
Mountains of Rutland/Windsor Counties of VT. In these latter 
areas, Winter Storm Warnings and/or Winter Weather Advisories 
have been issued accordingly where difficult to locally 
hazardous travel is expected. Given the wet nature of the snow, 
some modest threat to trees/powerlines will also be possible 
with the highest threat occurring across southern higher 
terrain. Please see our winter weather page at 
www.weather.gov/btv/winter for specific accumulation forecasts 
and probabilities. Highs on Friday ranging through the 30s with 
lows Friday night in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

By Saturday the low pressure pulls away offshore with steadier snows 
tapering to scattered rain/snow shower activity as the day 
progresses. Any additional accumulations should generally be 
confined to higher elevations during the morning hours as high 
temperatures top out from the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 426 AM EDT Thursday...Some upslope snow showers will 
continue into Saturday night across our Northern Vermont zones 
before ending early Sunday morning. Ridge of surface high 
pressure will then build over our area for Sunday and Sunday 
night. GFS and ECMWF then spread quite a bit apart from Monday 
onward. GFS is much more aggressive with Southern stream and 
Northern stream low pressure systems phasing, and impacting our 
area from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. The ECMWF 
keeps us mainly dry through this period with the Northern stream
low missing us to the North and Southern stream low missing us 
to the South. For Tuesday night and Wednesday region will once 
again be dry with another ridge of high pressure over us. Both 
ECMWF and GFS show a Great Lakes low pressure system passing 
west of us late in the week and bringing more rain and the snow 
showers to the area. Temperatures will be a bit below seasonal 
normals for the extended portion of the forecast but trending 
warmer towards the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions persist as surface high 
pressure builds into the North Country. Deck of VFR low and mid
level clouds will persist through the overnight, gradually 
diminishing in coverage and lifting to mid and high level clouds
around day break. Winds are 5-10 kts out of the North.

Outlook 06Z Friday through Monday...

06Z Friday through 09Z Friday...VFR under high pressure.

09Z Friday through 00Z Sunday...MVFR/IFR in periods of rain and
snow.

00Z Sunday through 00Z Monday...Areas of MVFR in scattered 
light snow showers. 

00Z Monday through 00Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected
as a ridge of high pressure builds into the region.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday 
     for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-011-016>018.
     Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday for 
     VTZ012-019.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday 
     for NYZ029>031-035.
     Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday for 
     NYZ034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Neiles

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
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January 2007, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
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February 2002, Week 1
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