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May 2020, Week 4

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Subject:
From:
Wesley Alan Wright <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Mon, 25 May 2020 06:50:02 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
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Expires:202005252000;;716951
FPUS51 KBTV 250735
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
332 AM EDT Mon May 25 2020


VTZ006-252000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
332 AM EDT Mon May 25 2020

.TODAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. South winds 10 to
15 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. South winds around
10 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Warmer with highs in the upper 80s.
Light and variable winds. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Light and
variable winds. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. Southwest
winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 80s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 60s. 
.FRIDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 50s. Chance of
rain 60 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. 

$$


Expires:202005251100;;724357
ASUS41 KBTV 251030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-251100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      60  42  51 S14G24    30.15R                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      48  39  71 S6        30.25S                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      47  39  74 S6        30.20S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     45  38  76 MISG      30.23R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      47  38  71 SE6       30.25S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      55  42  62 S7        30.19F                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      52  42  69 SE10      30.22S                  
SPRINGFIELD    MOCLDY    42  39  89 CALM      30.26F                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      63  46  53 S15G23    30.12S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      48  38  66 CALM      30.20S                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      47  41  80 CALM      30.23R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     45 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     36 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     50 N/A N/A W2          N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     54 N/A N/A S24G37      N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     61  46  59 SE22G30     N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     57  46  67 S26         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     59  45  58 SE20        N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;720563
FXUS61 KBTV 250850
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
450 AM EDT Mon May 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening mid-level disturbance pushes across the North 
country today bringing a chance for showers, mainly across 
northern New York. Skies will become partly sunny for Memorial 
Day with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. An upper-level 
ridge reamplifies across the Northeastern United States 
thereafter, with conditions trending hot and increasingly humid 
for the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe. Valley high 
temperatures near 90 degrees are expected. A cold front arriving
Friday will bring our long awaited next chance of widespread 
precipitation, which may include strong thunderstorms with brief
heavy rainfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Monday...Shortwave trough will push into our 
region this morning and dissipate, just a chance for some light 
rain showers in Northern NY with this feature. May be difficult 
to see these showers produce in our area, as the showers run 
into dry air that is in place with about a 20 degree temp 
dewpoint spread. After some morning cloudiness associated with 
this shortwave, skies will become party sunny in the afternoon. 
Winds will continue to be out of the S SW and gusty at times. 
Winds will approach lake wind advisory criteria on Lake 
Champlain this morning. Maximum temperatures today will reach 
the upper 70s to lower 80s. Upper level ridge will continue to 
build over our region from tonight through Tuesday, and we'll 
have warm air advection through the timeframe. Tonight will 
feature mild temperatures as wind remain around 10 mph, minimum 
temperatures will range from he mid 50s to mid 60s. Tuesday will
be quite warm with maximum temperatures ranging from the upper 
80s to lower 90s. Increasing humidity as dewpoints reach the 
upper 50s to lower 60s. Also mentioning chance for some light 
showers, possibly thunderstorms, Tuesday afternoon with some 
weak shortwave energy passing overhead and some modest low level
instability developing in warm and humid air mass. Subsidence 
under surface ridge may hamper storm development.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 427 AM EDT Monday...Mid/upper lvl ridge will be centered
acrs the Mid Atlantic/NE Conus during this time period with much
above normal temps and mainly dry conditions anticipated. Still
cannot completely rule our a stray shower or storm acrs our
northern tier counties, but synoptic scale forcing is minimal.
Activity would have to fire on lake breezy boundary off Lake
Champlain or Ontario, or acrs the higher trrn. Progged 925mb
temps are in the 21-23c range again on Weds, supporting highs
mid 80s to lower 90s, with dwpt values climbing into the
mid/upper 60s range, especially near the international border.
This will create heat index values in the lower 90s acrs the
urban areas of the SLV and CPV on Weds aftn. The heat/humidity
will help to create sfc based cape values in the 1000 to 1800
j/kg from the SLV into northern CPV on Weds aftn, but lack of
forcing and limited moisture aloft will keep pops in the schc
range at best. Warm southerly winds and dwpts in the mid 50s to
mid 60s on Weds night will keep temps in the upper 50s to upper
60s. 

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 427 AM EDT Monday...A period of active weather is
anticipated Thurs into Fri, with showers/storms associated with
approaching mid/upper lvl trof and sfc cold front. Still plenty
of uncertainty on timing of cold front, degree of instability
and potential for strong to severe storms. Guidance is now
showing less favorable parameters for stronger storms, as
increasing moisture on south/southwest winds advects more clouds
and stable air into our cwa ahead of approaching cold frnt.
Parcel trajectories indicate 925mb to 850mb flow is advecting 
modified maritime airmass into our central/southern cwa, which 
will produce more clouds and potential precip, along with cooler
temps and less instability, especially by Friday. Sfc based 
CAPE values range in the 500 to 1000 j/kg with better 
instability axis to our south and west during the window of best
synoptic scale forcing associated with 5h vort and approaching 
cold front. However, if slightly more clearing develops and 
temps can warm into the mid 80s, the wind profiles and dynamics 
would support the idea of stronger storms on Friday. In 
addition, deep sub-tropical moisture continues to advect ahead 
of dynamics, with pws in the 1.50 to 1.75 range, suggesting the 
potential for localized heavier down pours within the stronger 
convective elements. Progged 925mb temps in the 20-22c range on 
Thurs support highs back into the mid 80s to near 90f. Temps 
cool another 1 to 3 degrees on Friday, with highs upper 70s to 
mid 80s with definitely more humidity conditions, before much 
cooler and drier weather arrives for the weekend. Its been 
several runs off the ECMWF showing progged 850mb temps at or 
slightly below 0c by 12 Sunday, along with building 1026mb high 
pres. This would indicate the potential for some patchy frost in
the colder valleys, especially on Monday morning as winds 
become calm. Highs generally in the 60s to lower 70s for the 
upcoming weekend with dry conditions anticipated. 

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR expected through the forecast period.
Scattered high clouds above 150 AGL to gradually trend BKN/OVC 
in the 050-120 AGL range later tonight into Monday with weak 
trough passage. A few light showers will be possible with this 
feature at SLK and MSS in the 08-14Z time range, otherwise 
mainly dry weather will continue with no restrictions. Winds 
light south to southeasterly in the 4-8 kt range overnight 
(occasionally gusty at RUT due to gap flow), then 6 to 12 kts 
after 14Z Monday with gusts into the 15-20 kt range at BTV, PBG 
and RUT. 

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
High temperatures near 90 degrees are forecast Tuesday through
Thursday this week. Here is a look at record high temperatures,
and year of occurrence, for the May 26th through May 28th 
period:

Date     KBTV     KMPV     K1V4     KMSS     KPBG     KSLK
05-26  92|2010  87|2010  89|2010  96|2010  94|2010  90|2010
05-27  91|2016  88|1960  86|2016  89|2016  94|2016  88|1914
05-28  92|1978  88|1978  90|2016  90|2016  90|1972  91|1911

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Neiles
CLIMATE...Banacos

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