Expires:202210132000;;354243
FPUS51 KBTV 131033
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
629 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2022
VTZ018-132000-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
629 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2022
.TODAY...Partly sunny with a slight chance of showers this
morning, then cloudy with showers likely this afternoon. Breezy
with highs in the mid 60s. South winds 15 to 25 mph. Gusts up to
45 mph this afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.TONIGHT...Showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible after
midnight. Breezy with lows in the upper 40s. Southeast winds
15 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 45 mph, decreasing to 35 mph after
midnight. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers likely in the morning, then
partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 50s. Light and
variable winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Light and
variable winds.
.SATURDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. South winds around
10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s.
.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 50s.
Lows in the upper 30s.
.MONDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 50s. Chance of rain
70 percent.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the upper 30s. Chance of
rain 70 percent.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 40s.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow
showers. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation
50 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of rain showers. Highs in
the lower 40s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
$$
Expires:202210131100;;354189
ASUS41 KBTV 131030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU OCT 13 2022
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-131100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON PTCLDY 60 48 64 S10 29.87F
MONTPELIER PTCLDY 52 45 77 CALM 29.98F
MORRISVILLE PTCLDY 46 43 89 S5 29.92F
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 45 41 86 MISG 29.95F
LYNDONVILLE* N/A 49 44 83 S3 29.97F
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 59 49 69 S10 29.89F
RUTLAND* CLEAR 56 49 77 SE16 29.92F
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 49 47 93 CALM 29.99F
HIGHGATE* FAIR 59 48 67 SE13 29.85F
NEWPORT* FAIR 52 49 90 S9G16 29.92F
BENNINGTON PTCLDY 60 45 57 S8 29.92F
ISLAND POND* N/A 52 N/A N/A E3 N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 36 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 50 N/A N/A SW5 N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 48 N/A N/A S25G39 N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 59 50 72 S30 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 57 50 77 S24 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;348212
FXUS61 KBTV 130820
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
420 AM EDT Thu Oct 13 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cyclone will impact the region with strong winds and
heavy rain beginning today. South winds will ramp up today
ahead of a cold front, with peak gusts mainly ranging from 35 to
50 MPH. As moist air is drawn ahead of the front, heavy rain
will develop and gradually shift eastward, passing through the
region on Friday. Seasonable dry weather returns late Friday
through Saturday, followed by unsettled and progressively colder
conditions into the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 420 AM EDT Thursday...A climatologically favorable
weather pattern for strong winds and increasing rain chances
will unfold today.
**Wind Advisory in effect for portions of northern New York and
northern Vermont from 6 AM to 11 PM Today**
Precipitation in advance of a sharp cold front is slowly sliding
east across the region. As the morning progresses, a southerly low-
level jet will strengthen as pressure gradients tighten ahead
of a slowly deepening low near the Great Lakes. Winds at 925 hPa
will increase to 45 to 55 knots, and will be near the top of the
mixed layer. Additionally, with dry subsident air beneath a
layer of increasing moisture, conditions appear favorable for
some of these winds to reach the surface, especially along north
facing slopes of the Adirondacks and Greens, where orographics
will aid in the descent of any air parcels. Another area where
strong winds will be favored will be the northern Champlain
Valley, given the near due south direction of the flow
channeling efficiently between the Greens and the Adirondacks.
Across these regions, wind gusts reaching 45 to 50 mph will be
likely, with ensemble probabilities of gusts greater than 40 mph
around 30 to 60 percent across the advisory area. So, this seems
on track. The one question mark will be the St. Lawrence
Valley. The low-level jet maximizes near or just over the
region, but the wind direction is not favorable for strong winds
and the it will be a bit early in the day for surface warming
to produce steeper lapse rates, and probabilistic data is not
overly supportive of it. However, there does appear to be about
1 hour for favorable mixing conditions in the St. Lawrence
Valley, and would not completely rule out the possibility of a
stronger gust in the region as well. Altogether, the advisory
appears in good shape, with no changes made to headlines at this
time. Fast southerly flow will efficiently advect warm air into
the region, with high temperatures in the 60s.
Precipitation moving into western New York at this time will
gradually slide east, and expand in areal extent as a weak
shortwave begins to interact with a negatively tilted trough
approaches later tonight. Excellent low-level convergence ahead
of the boundary, PWATs approaching 200 percent of normal, and
strong synoptic scale forcing will promote periods of moderate
to heavy rainfall late, with the time window of heaviest rain
about 8 PM today to 8 AM Friday. Probabilistic data continues to
suggest a relatively low probability of exceeding flash flood
guidance, but the potential for multiple rounds of rain with
falling leaves will need to be monitored closely. Recent dryness
should prevent any widespread concerns. Additional information
can be found in the hydro section below.
As we head into Friday, the dry slot beneath a now stacked
upper low will dry things out during the day with light winds
forecast, clearing skies, and seasonable temperatures in the 50s
to lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 344 AM EDT Thursday...Cold, dry air is expected to rush into
the forecast area post-front on Friday night. Any lingering showers
would be in the Northeast Kingdom, as the ECMWF and Canadian are
departing rainfall slower than the GFS, and the NAM even shows some
of the rain retrograding back into the eastern NEK. PoPs in the
20-30% range for the NEK and teens % for the rest of eastern VT.
Elsewhere, dry mid-level air will contribute to decreasing cloud
cover from west to east as winds stay mainly light and variable
until southerly to southeasterly winds pick up late in the night in
the St. Lawrence Valley. Lows will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
On Saturday, southerly winds continue to increase across the
forecast area as clouds decrease, allowing for slightly above
average temperatures. Highs in the lower 60s for most, and wind
gusts from 15 to 20 mph and higher on Lake Champlain as winds funnel
through the valley under a mid-level jet streak. It's not out of the
question for a few extra clouds and/or light showers across northern
New York as a shortwave slides along the St. Lawrence Valley, but
overall the day should remain pleasant and dry.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 344 AM EDT Thursday...The unsettled conditions continue with a
longwave trough over the eastern US, sending shortwaves through the
forecast area and sending a general decrease trend in temperatures
through the region. The first shortwave will be on Sunday, when we
have PoPs increasing in northern New York Saturday night into Sunday
morning in Vermont and an overall westerly flow. Highs Sunday should
remain around average, in the mid-50s to around 60 F. There will
likely be a brief reprieve from showers and winds on Sunday night
before another shortwave brings back the potential on Monday.
Monday afternoon looks to have the best chances for rainfall, but
each day early next week has the potential for showers as well.
Highs in the 50s fall to the 40s and low 50s Tuesday. As
temperatures fall, there's also the potential for snow at high
elevations. By Wednesday, the upper low and cold pool of air aloft
shifts into the forecast area, bringing drier air, lower PoPs, and
the chilliest temperatures of the forecast period, with highs in the
40s and lows Wednesday night in the 30s. Westerly winds are also
forecast to hike up Wednesday as the low moves overhead, making it
feel even colder, and snow could begin reaching valley floors for
the first time this season.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06z Friday...Currently VFR with increasing winds,
leading to the challenges wind shear and turbulence ahead of
rain showers and lowering cigs/vis over northern New York about
18z, and towards Vermont about 22z. VFR conditions prevail
overnight with south/southeast winds 4 to 8 knots most
locations. Low stratus will develop north and into eastern
Vermont, which may at least come close to KMPV with a tempo
highlighting the possibility between 11z and 15z. Winds
increase quickly 10-14z today from the south/southeast at 15 to
25 knots with localized gusts 30 to 35 knots. Areas of wind
shear and turbulence are likely, especially near mountainous
terrain associated as winds around 2000 ft agl increase to 40 to
55 knots, which will be strongest over northern New York. Rain
showers will enter the St. Lawrence Valley by 18z and slowly
spread toward the Vermont around 00z Friday. Approaching 03z,
winds should begin to subside to 5 to 10 knots and become
southwest as rain overspreads the region.
Outlook...
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
As of 350 PM EDT Tuesday...A slowing cold front will lead to
heavy rainfall across northern New York this afternoon and into
Vermont tonight through early Friday morning. Total rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2.50", with the highest amounts over eastern
facing upslope regions of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains.
The potential for flash flooding will likely be localized due to
recent dryness, though leaf fall could clog drainage and lead to
ponding over streets. Sharp rises are expected on rivers and
streams across the region. The Northeast River Forecast Center
has the Ausable River reaching minor flood stage on Friday. The
Ausable River is currently forecast to fall below minor flood
stage late Friday evening
&&
.MARINE...
Winds over Lake Champlain are being observed between 18 to 28
knots, and is expected to increase slightly this morning into
the afternoon ahead of a cold front. Winds are likely to remain
in the 25 to 30 knot range until precipitation arrives late this
evening. Waves increasing to 3 to 5 feet, with locally up to 6
feet possible.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX is presently operating between maintenance sessions. KTYX
radar will be taken down again late this morning to continue
maintenance and repairs.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for VTZ001>003-006-
016-017.
NY...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ027>031.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Haynes/Taber
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV
MARINE...WFO BTV
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
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