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SKIVT-L  January 2017, Week 3

SKIVT-L January 2017, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 19 Jan 2017 06:50:03 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (239 lines)

Expires:201701192100;;736713
FPUS51 KBTV 190813
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
311 AM EST THU JAN 19 2017


VTZ006-192100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
311 AM EST THU JAN 19 2017

.TODAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND DRIZZLE THIS
MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FREEZING FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. PATCHY
FREEZING FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW OR
LIGHT SLEET. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
40 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 30. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 

$$


Expires:201701191200;;745100
ASUS41 KBTV 191130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST THU JAN 19 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-191200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    36  34  92 CALM      29.96R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    30  30 100 CALM      29.96R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    31  30  96 CALM      29.96R FOG              
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     31  29  92 MISG      29.93R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   MIX PCPN  28  28  99 CALM      29.95R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    36  35  96 S5        29.96R WCI  32          
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    36  32  87 CALM      29.96R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    30  28  92 CALM      29.97R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    32  32 100 CALM      29.97R FOG              
NEWPORT*       MIX PCPN  30  29  96 CALM      29.94R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    36  33  89 SW5       29.98R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     27 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     28 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     28 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     30 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     25 N/A N/A S2          N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     34  34 100 S2          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     37  36  93 S12         N/A  WCI  30          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     36  34  93 SW1         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;745654
FXUS61 KBTV 191143
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
643 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
As surface high pressure and an a ridge aloft build into the region 
today, areas of morning drizzle should dissipate through the day, 
but a developing low level inversion will keep skies cloudy right 
through Friday and into the weekend along with above normal 
temperatures. A storm system shifting out of the southeastern states 
Monday will bring the potential for a wintry mix Monday night, 
changing to all rain for Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 643 AM EST Thursday...Mid/upper level shortwave trough 
shifting through the Northeast this morning continues to provide
areas of low clouds and drizzle to the North Country through 
mid-day before surface high pressure and an upper ridge building
east from the Ohio Valley brings an end to precipitation this 
afternoon. Moving forward into tonight and Friday, despite 
strong subsidence building in aloft, a developing low level 
inversion will trap abundant moisture below 925mb with very 
light winds in the boundary layer. This combination isn't good 
for any clearing, except at the mountain top level, so will 
continue to highlight cloudy skies through Friday morning before
the inversion possibly breaks Friday afternoon with some peaks 
of sun possible towards sunset. Should be interesting to see 
what the summits look like Friday morning as I suspect they'll 
be above the clouds. With so much cloud cover through the 
period, temps will have a hard time warming much today and 
falling off tonight so think highs will mainly run in the 
mid/upper 30s and lows only in the mid 20s to low 30s. Light 
wind fields and warm air moving over fresh snowpack will also 
enhance the potential for fog to develop tonight, and feel it 
will be fairly widespread after sunset reducing visibility below
a mile at times. Not much airmass change for Friday either so 
temps should be similar to Thursday, but with the hope of a 
little afternoon sun could see some low 40s out there, mainly in
the Champlain Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 311 AM EST Thursday...Relatively quiet weather continues 
into the Friday night/Saturday time frame. A quick perusal of 
this morning's data suggests a fairly consistent theme showing 
blocking upper ridging across New England will act to dampen an 
approaching shortwave trough advancing northeast from the Ohio 
Valley/Mid-Atlantic during this period. With light warm thermal 
advection rippling in aloft expect a return to mainly cloudy 
skies with perhaps some spotty very light rain and/or snow 
arriving from the southwest over time and weakening in coverage 
as we progress into Saturday. Any snow accumulations will be 
negligible and generally less than an inch - mainly across 
elevated terrain. Temperatures will continue very mild with lows
Friday night from the mid 20s to lower 30s and Saturday maxes 
from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 311 AM EST Thursday...As we progress into the extended 
portion of the forecast the one certainty is a continuation of 
unseasonably mild weather with daily mean departures averaging 
from +10 to +20 degrees. This has been a very consistent signal 
among varying ensemble output over the past 10 days or so. Our 
most notable weather will occur during the Monday/Tuesday time 
frame as a rather potent southern stream system phases with 
northern stream energy across the northeast before exiting into 
the maritimes by mid-week. Examination of model thermal profiles
suggests at least a threat of some light sleet or freezing rain
in customary areas of northern New York and eastern VT into 
Monday evening before boundary layer warming transitions p-type 
to rain in all areas by Tuesday. For the Champlain Valley this 
will primarily be a light rain event. Any icing threat appears 
rather marginal at this time given such mild boundary layer 
temperatures but a light glaze can't be ruled out, at least at 
this point. Other minor concern will be the potential for gusty 
southeasterly downsloping winds, especially along the western 
slopes of the Green Mountains later Monday afternoon into Monday
night as mean 925-850 mb flow may exceed 40 knots. This will 
eventually predicate some adjustment of model qpf fields as 
valley/terrain shadowing/enhancement effects will be magnified. 
Higher-res guidance will certainly provide more detail as we 
draw closer in time. 

Behind this system mean lower to mid level flow remains 
southwesterly, so little cooldown/airmass change is expected 
through Thursday at this point. With several additional 
shortwave impulses crossing the area the idea of a daily threat 
of scattered rain/snow shower activity also appears reasonable 
as progress into Wed/Thu. Afternoon highs should from the mid 
30s to lower 40s with overnight lows averaging in the upper 20s 
to lower 30s - more typical of March than January.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 12Z Friday...Mainly offering a persistence forecast in
regards to ceilings as a developing low level inversion will
trap current moisture/clouds beneath it with little overall
airmass change expected through the next 24 hours. This
highlights mainly IFR cigs at KMSS/KSLK and MVFR elsewhere,
exception being VFR at KPBG through the daylight hours. VFR 
vsby through the day trends to a mix of MVFR/VFR in fog after
00z with some spotty IFR. Winds light and variable through the 
period.

Outlook 12Z Friday through Monday... 

12z Friday - 00Z Sunday - Inversion layer looks to possibly 
break Friday but could continue to see prolonged stretches of 
MVFR ceilings, and perhaps IFR at times for SLK/MPV. In addition
to low clouds, patchy BR/FG also possible. 

00Z Sunday through 00Z Tuesday - Generally VFR Sunday. Moisture
laden low pressure approaching from the south brings potential 
for widespread precipitation (mostly rain) for Monday with MVFR
and intervals of IFR conditions. SE gusts in excess of 25kts
possible at KRUT late Monday.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Lahiff

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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July 2009, Week 5
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June 2009, Week 5
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June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
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May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
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March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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June 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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March 2008, Week 1
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February 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
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January 2008, Week 1
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October 2007, Week 5
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
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