Expires:200603092115;;060505
FPUS51 KBTV 090755
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
255 AM EST THU MAR 9 2006


VTZ006-008-010-016-017-092115-
LAMOILLE-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...
RANDOLPH...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL
255 AM EST THU MAR 9 2006

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING...THEN
A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...CHANGING TO 
ALL RAIN LATE. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. 
HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...LIGHT RAIN UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG. TEMPERATURES STEADY 35 TO 40. 
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING...THEN 
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY
AND MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. 
CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BREEZY WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS AROUND 30. 

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN has been proposed for termination. NOAA's NWS will be accepting
comments on the proposed termination until January 31, 2006. Please learn
more about the termination and how to leave a comment [2]here
   
          
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 090828
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
327 AM EST THU MAR 9 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER COURSE OF SHORT TERM WILL BE MIXED
PRECIPITATION TODAY...AND POTENTIAL STRONG WINDS DURING FRIDAY.
LATEST SYNOPTIC MAP/WV IMAGERY INDICATING DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL STATES AS DIGGING 500 HPA TROUGH ACROSS SRN
ROCKIES AMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM RIDGING/WAA EASTERN HALF OF CONUS. THIS
WAA TO AFFECT FA TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN. PARTIAL THICKNESS
ANALYSIS AND LATEST FCST SOUNDING PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
INITIAL ONSET OF PCPN WILL BE ONE OF MIXED P-TYPE...WITH HIGHEST
THREAT ERN/NERN VT WHERE SHALLOW COLD AIR REMAINS INITIALLY TRAPPED
NEAR SFC IN DEEPER HOLLOWS/VLLYS. SOME CONCERN OF SFC TEMPS
DROPPING MORE THAN MOS GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE EARLY PER RATHER
SIGNIFICANT TDD VALUES ACROSS AREA. HOWEVER...OPERATIONAL SOLNS
SUGGEST TIGHTENING SFC P-GRAD ALONG WITH SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOC WITH STRONG MID LVL JET SHOULD ALLOW RATHER QUICK T/TD
RECOVERY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS ONLY MINOR ACCUM
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT...WITH LESS ACROSS WRN
VT/NRN NY WHERE MORE BRIEF MIX OF SN/PL EXPECTED. HIGHEST
THREAT OF FROZEN PCPN ACROSS THESE WRN AREAS WOULD OCCUR ACROSS NRN
SLV WHERE PERSISTENT SHALLOW NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW MAY SLOW TEMP
RISES A BIT LONGER. BY TONIGHT SURGING MOISTURE ON HEELS OF BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO WIN BATTLE...WITH TEMPS NEARLY
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG. BROAD
RAIN SHIELD TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD. WILL MAINTAIN
CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS THROUGH EVENING HOURS...THEN TAPER OFF
CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT AS BEST WAA/OMEGA LIFT NORTH OF AREA.

FA FIRMLY IN WARM SECTOR DURING MUCH OF FRIDAY AS SFC WAVE PASSES
NORTH AND WEST OF REGION. WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY CONDS DURING
FIRST HALF OF DAY AS BEST FORCING/LIFT OFF TO NW IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO SFC WAVE/VORT CENTER. THEN WILL OPT FOR MORE CLOUDS AND
INCREASING CHC SHRA BY AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY NORTH...AS WEAK SFC
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS AREA. MAIN FCST CONCERN DURING FRIDAY WILL BE
IMPRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY LL JET THAT SHOULD EVOLVE OVER COURSE OF
DAY. LATEST FCST SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATING POTENTIAL ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS DURING AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY NW VT/NRN NY WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AS DETAILS BECOME
MORE REFINED OVER COURSE OF NEXT 18 HOURS. LINGERING SHRASN ACROSS
HIER TRRN EARLY SAT EVE WILL END LEAVING MAINLY PC CONDS ACROSS FA
INTO SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES ACROSS REGION. THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS/CHCS PCPN TO OCCUR BY END OF SHORT TERM AS BROAD
MID LVL WAA OCCURS IN A REPEAT FANFARE BY LATE SAT NT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST AT THIS TIME. LATEST MEDIUM
RANGE OPERATIONAL SOLNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE BROAD AND MILD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE NERN CONUS FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG BERMUDA SFC HIGH
NEAR 30N/-65W. SEVERAL IMPULSES TO BE IMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW
ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF SFC TO MID LVL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND SHOULD
AFFECT AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH CHCS OF SHOWERS. INITIAL
FEATURE TO AFFECT AREA DURING SUNDAY...THEN PRIMARY SYSTEM IN
CLUSTER TO CROSS AREA DURING TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. A
RETURN TO COOLER...ALBEIT MORE SEASONAL CONDS TO THEN OCCUR BY
WED/THU BEHIND ASSOC SFC FRONT. LARGE SCALE ERN CONUS TROUGHING
THEN BECOMES REESTABLISHED BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A
RESULT OF STRENGTHENING NRN ATLANTIC/GREENLAND UPSTREAM BLOCKING.
THUS TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO BLO NORMAL READINGS...THOUGH NOT OF
DEGREE FELT OVER PAST FEW WEEKS.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WITH GRDLLY LWRG CIGS TIL PCPN ARRIVES FM W TO E ARD 16Z.
MVFR CONDS WITH ARRIVAL OF PCPN AND BRF 1-2HR PERIOD OF RASN PSBL AT
KMPV/KSLK/KMSS AND SVRL HRS OF FZRA PSBL AT KMSS. BY 21Z...MOST PCPN
WL BE -RA WITH MVFR. BRF PERIOD OF IFR CONDS PSBL DUE TO VSBY/CIG
DUE TO WRM AIR OVR SNOWPACK BUT BRISK WNDS SHLD LIMIT. AFT 00Z...
MUCH OF PCPN ALG/N CNDN BDR WITH FA IN WRM SECTOR AND THIS CUD
PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...SLW









FXUS61 KBTV 090245
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
945 PM EST WED MAR 8 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH 11Z. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS /10-15 KFT/ HAVE ADVANCED EWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE
ZONES/GRIDS ACCORDINGLY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVALENT
ACROSS ALL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS CLOUDS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED
RADIATIVE COOLING. TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS MAY ONLY FALL
ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 425 PM EST WED MAR 8 2006/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT...SO WILL
GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ON THURSDAY...MODELS DIFFER AS TO TIMING ON THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE THE NAM AND NGM
MODELS HOLD OFF THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER SPEED OF THE NAM AND NGM MODELS WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. GIVEN DEW POINTS STILL QUITE
LOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...IT WILL TAKE AWHILE FOR THE
LOWER PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE. 850 MB TEMPS STILL A
BIT BELOW FREEZING EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT...SO COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. EXPECT RAIN TO END AROUND MIDNIGHT
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO QUEBEC. AS THE RAIN
ENDS...EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING
NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING
LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE. INVERSION WILL BREAK BY LATE MORNING
WITH WINDS INCREASING.  TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

ON SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REX BLOCK WRN U.S. AND WRN CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND SUPPORTS STG UPR
RDG ERN U.S. WITH MULTIPLE S/WVS AND SFC LOWS TRACKING NEWRD THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING FCST AREA IN WARM SECTOR WITH SHOWERS AND
TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
SOME TRANSITION TO LOW LEVEL COOLING AND DRYING TREND. BY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...THE REX BLOCK WILL SHOW DISCONTINUOUS RETROGRESSION
TO NEAR 140 WEST AND TROFINESS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL EJECT
INTO THE OH VLY BUT POSSIBLY MAINTAIN ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO FORM MORE
OF A LONG WAVE TROF IN THE NORTHEAST. AS A SIGNIFICANT SFC LOW
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. EXTENDED MEX MOS GUIDANCE FOLLOWED PRETTY
CLOSELY...EXCEPT TRENDED MAX TEMPS LOWER ON WEDNESDAY...MORE IN LINE
WITH 06Z GFS GUIDANCE OF SHARPER UPR TROF IN THE NORTHEAST.

AVIATION...
HIGH THIN CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN MORE SLOWLY THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST SINCE LOW AND MID LVL MSTR IS VERY LMTD. RADIATIONAL
DE-COUPLING STILL LIKELY THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT BUT STG GRADIENT
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP DELAYED TIL AROUND 16Z IN THE ADIRONDACKS...BY WHICH TIME IT
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT FROZEN/FREEZING PCPN WON'T BE MUCH OF A
RISK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BANACOS








FXUS61 KBTV 082125
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
425 PM EST WED MAR 8 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT...SO WILL
GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

ON THURSDAY...MODELS DIFFER AS TO TIMING ON THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE THE NAM AND NGM
MODELS HOLD OFF THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER SPEED OF THE NAM AND NGM MODELS WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. GIVEN DEW POINTS STILL QUITE
LOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...IT WILL TAKE AWHILE FOR THE
LOWER PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE. 850 MB TEMPS STILL A
BIT BELOW FREEZING EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT...SO COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. EXPECT RAIN TO END AROUND MIDNIGHT
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO QUEBEC. AS THE RAIN
ENDS...EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING
NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING
LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE. INVERSION WILL BREAK BY LATE MORNING
WITH WINDS INCREASING.  TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

ON SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REX BLOCK WRN U.S. AND WRN CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND SUPPORTS STG UPR
RDG ERN U.S. WITH MULTIPLE S/WVS AND SFC LOWS TRACKING NEWRD THRU
THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING FCST AREA IN WARM SECTOR WITH SHOWERS AND
TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
SOME TRANSITION TO LOW LEVEL COOLING AND DRYING TREND. BY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...THE REX BLOCK WILL SHOW DISCONTINUOUS RETROGRESSION
TO NEAR 140 WEST AND TROFINESS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL EJECT
INTO THE OH VLY BUT POSSIBLY MAINTAIN ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO FORM MORE
OF A LONG WAVE TROF IN THE NORTHEAST. AS A SIGNIFICANT SFC LOW
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. EXTENDED MEX MOS GUIDANCE FOLLOWED PRETTY
CLOSELY...EXCEPT TRENDED MAX TEMPS LOWER ON WEDNESDAY...MORE IN LINE
WITH 06Z GFS GUIDANCE OF SHARPER UPR TROF IN THE NORTHEAST.
&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH THIN CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN MORE SLOWLY THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST SINCE LOW AND MID LVL MSTR IS VERY LMTD. RADIATIONAL
DE-COUPLING STILL LIKELY THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT BUT STG GRADIENT
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP DELAYED TIL AROUND 16Z IN THE ADIRONDACKS...BY WHICH TIME IT
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT FROZEN/FREEZING PCPN WON'T BE MUCH OF A
RISK.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...REB
AVIATION...REB








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

                                   Not Found

   The requested URL /text/obs/roundup/ASUS51.KBTV was not found on this
   server.
     _________________________________________________________________


    Apache/2.0.46 (Red Hat) Server at [1]twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu Port
    80

References

   1. mailto:root@localhost

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont.

To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html