Expires:202207172000;;393733
FPUS51 KBTV 170753
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
349 AM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022


VTZ018-172000-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
349 AM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022

.TODAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Light and variable
winds. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Light and
variable winds. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny in the morning, then becoming cloudy. A
chance of thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the morning, then
showers in the afternoon. Humid with highs in the mid 70s. South
winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Showers. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Humid
with lows in the mid 60s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts
up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Humid with highs in the lower 80s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with
gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 80. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs
in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 60s. 
.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Highs in the upper 70s.
Lows in the lower 60s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 80. 

$$


Expires:202207171100;;400796
ASUS41 KBTV 171030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2022

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-171100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    63  59  87 CALM      30.00R                  
MONTPELIER     CLEAR     59  54  83 CALM      30.07R                  
MORRISVILLE    FOG       56  55  97 CALM      30.03S VSB<1/4          
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      56  55  97 CALM      30.06R FOG              
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      66  63  91 CALM      30.02R                  
RUTLAND*       PTCLDY    61  59  93 SE7       30.04R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       60  59  96 CALM      30.04S VSB 3/4          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      62  61  97 CALM      30.00R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      56  54  92 SW5       30.04R                  
BENNINGTON     PTCLDY    61  59  93 CALM      30.04R FOG              
ISLAND POND*     N/A     50 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     52 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     63 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     64  59  82 NW3         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;396223
FXUS61 KBTV 170827
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
427 AM EDT Sun Jul 17 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably warm and dry weather is expected again today as high
pressure remains across the region. Widespread showers with 
embedded thunderstorms will then overspread the region by Monday
afternoon into Monday evening with localized heavier rainfall 
possible. The overall weather pattern will likely remain active 
well into next week with additional chance of showers and storms
on Tuesday, and again by next Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...Quiet weather is expected again today
as surface high pressure bridges across the northeast. As such,
conditions should be quite similar to yesterday with mainly 
sunny skies interspersed by just a few passing mid to high level
clouds and light winds. Temperatures should once again climb to
seasonably warm levels, ranging generally from 83 to 89 degrees
with a few spots touching 90 in the broad valleys. Humidity 
should be tolerable, however. Then partly cloudy and mild 
overnight tonight as the surface high edges east as low 
temperatures bottom out generally from 55 to 65, slightly milder
in warmer spots of the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys.

Still looking at inclement weather conditions developing over time 
on Monday into Monday evening as low pressure tracks east-northeast 
from the Ohio Valley states. Ample moisture (PWATS to ~ 2") along 
with fairly impressive dynamic upper support and a favorable surface 
low track across our area all favor a 8-12 hour period of numerous 
showers and embedded, non-severe storms. Steadier rainfall should 
generally arrive from southwest to northeast in the late morning to 
early afternoon hours and trend heavy at times by late afternoon 
into the evening hours (see hydrology discussion below). High 
temperatures will reflect these trends with warmest values across 
north/northeastern VT where some morning partial sunshine appears 
most plausible (lower 80s) with readings in the 70s further 
southwest with an earlier onset of clouds/showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 404 AM EDT Sunday...At the start of the period, a
deepening low pressure system is expected to be overhead, which
suggests steadily decreasing chances of rain from west to east 
as all of the forcing for precipitation is out ahead of the 
system. Showers with embedded thunderstorms and/or heavy rain 
will progress east-northeastward with the axis of greatest 
rainfall moving into the northern tier of Vermont and Green 
Mountains before exiting during the early morning hours.

Increasing confidence in development of isolated strong to 
severe thunderstorms on Tuesday, with best chances appearing to 
be over northern Vermont and late in the day. Have nudged the
forecast towards the latest NAM with the idea that a subtle cold
frontal boundary dropping southward during the afternoon will
facilitate multicellular clusters in an environment of moderate
CAPE and shear. With a plethora of dry air aloft, the areal
coverage of thunderstorms is questionable at this time but the
potential of tall storms capable of both wind and hail threats
bears watching. 

Ahead of this cold front, moisture will tend to pool, related to
why instability should be ample. Dew points in the upper 60s to
near 70 are expected, so it will be a muggy day. The 
temperature will rise into the mid and upper 80s in most valley 
areas under ample sun. Accordingly, the wet bulb globe 
temperature looks to peak in the high category in portions of
the Champlain and Connecticut River Valley, which comes with 
the recommendation of limiting intense activity during the 
warmest part of the day.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 404 AM EDT Sunday...Any thunderstorm activity lingering into
Tuesday night should fade away as instability wanes and ridging
builds northeastward. Very warm and humid conditions are expected on
Wednesday and Thursday, with maximum heat index values near 90 on
both days. It will be increasingly muggy Wednesday night into
Thursday as a warm front lifts through the region. The relatively
dry air mass on Wednesday will support a hotter day between the two,
when some 90 degree air temperatures are possible. The increasing
humidity will limit relief from the heat at night, with lows
Wednesday night likely to be in the mid and upper 60s in most
locations.

The main focus of the long term period remains for Thursday. All
ensemble data suggests potential for impactful weather, including
thunderstorms capable of torrential rainfall and possibly damaging
wind. The low pressure system passing to our northwest looks to be
the deepest to pass over this region during the 1979 to 2009
climatology for the July 11 - August 1 period, which suggests very
large height falls that will steepen lapse rates and produce
widespread thunderstorms that could tap into strong winds aloft. On
Thursday afternoon, heavy rain potential is shown through PWATs in
excess of 2 standard deviations above the climatological mean,
MUCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg. The deepest moisture looks to push to
our east ahead of the actual cold front, when potential for
organized thunderstorms should peak. Probabilities of moderate (1000
J/kg) to high SBCAPE (> 2000 J/kg) are greatest in Vermont based on
the most likely timing of the cold front. At the same time, the
pressure gradient over the region and uniform southwesterly flow
will produce impressive winds in the St. Lawrence Valley where the
channeling supports enhanced non-thunderstorm gusts potentially
in the 30 to 40 MPH range during the afternoon.

Relatively quiet weather will follow on Friday and Saturday,
although any shortwave energy rounding the longwave trough still
over the region will spark showers and at least some chance of
thunderstorms given continued warm and moderately humid air. Friday
is expected to be the least hot/humid day of the long term period,
with GEFS probabilities of dew points in excess of 60 degrees
finally dropping below 50% across most of the region, save the
northern tier of counties.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...VFR through the period with just a few
passing high clouds and no precipitation as high pressure
remains in control. Only exception will be possible brief 
MVFR/IFR vsbys in BR at KSLK in the 08-11Z time frame. Light, 
terrain-driven and/or lake breeze winds less than 10 kts should
be the rule. 

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Likely
TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...A widespread, and largely beneficial 
rainfall event is expected across the area on Monday afternoon 
into Monday evening. Most realistic deterministic solutions 
would argue for a period of steady rainfall for most areas 
during this period, with locally heavier amounts possible with 
embedded non-severe thunderstorms. Basin average rainfall should
generally range from 0.75 to 1.5 inches across the forecast 
area, with local totals of 1.5 to 2.5 inches possible in most 
persistent rainfall. Areas in the St. Lawrence Valley into the 
northern Adirondacks and into northwestern VT appear to stand 
the greatest chance to receive higher amounts. Given uncertainty
on the level of instability in the lower to mid levels to drive
more organized convection and heavier rainfall rates, and the 
fact that these amounts will fall over the course of an 8-12 
hour period, excessive rainfall and the overall threat of 
flooding appears low at this time. However, WPC does maintain a 
marginal risk of flash flooding Monday into Monday evening, and 
localized, minor poor drainage flooding is possible in areas of 
heaviest rainfall.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...JMG
HYDROLOGY...JMG

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