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June 2014, Week 3

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Subject:
From:
"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Sun, 15 Jun 2014 06:50:01 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
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text/plain (200 lines)
Expires:201406152000;;460085
FPUS51 KBTV 151012
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
612 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014

VTZ006-152000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
612 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THIS MORNING...
THEN MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...CLEAR. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. 
.MONDAY...SUNNY. WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 60. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. 
$$

Expires:201406151100;;460702
ASUS41 KBTV 151030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-151100-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  57  51  80 N5        30.09R                  
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   52  49  89 NW5       30.09R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    54  49  83 VRB5      30.08R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     54  51  90 MISG      30.03R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    53  48  84 NW7       30.06R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    DRIZZLE   57  55  93 NW7       30.09R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    55  50  82 NW5       30.08R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    59  48  67 VRB5      30.04R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    60  50  70 NW5       30.09R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    52  48  87 NW10      30.06S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    55  50  83 NW5       30.08R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     50 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     39 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     55 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     43 N/A N/A N22G33      N/A                   
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     59  50  72 NW1         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     59  52  77 N18         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     59  50  72 NW12        N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;460684
FXUS61 KBTV 151034
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
634 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH 
CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COOL NIGHT IS 
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND CLEAR SKIES. SOME PATCHY 
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MONDAY WILL 
FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATED FCST TO MENTION SPRINKLES ACRS
THE EASTERN CPV AND WESTERN SLOPES FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING
AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACRS MOST OF THE REGION. LATEST RADAR
TRENDS SHOW A RIBBON OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACRS THE EASTERN CPV
AND WESTERN SLOPES ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AS
MIXING OCCURS AND HELPS TO ADVECT DRIER AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.
CLOUDS WL HOLD ON THE LONGEST ACRS THE MTNS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN
VT...BUT SHOULD CLR BY MIDDAY. ALSO...HAVE NOTED A 29F FOR THE LOW
AT SLK TONIGHT OFF THE NEW 06Z MAV...DAYSHIFT MAY NEED TO DROP LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT AND MENTION SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDER VALLEYS.
FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE TIMING OF CLRING SKIES AS SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THIS MORNING WITH UPSLOPE FLW. USING THE RAP
SOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW CLOUDS BREAKING UP BY 15Z AT BTV AND
BTWN 15Z-17Z ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE GREEN
MTNS...AS MIXING DEVELOPS. THE WESTERN CPV AND LWR CT VALLEY
SHOULD CLR QUICKLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH DOWNSLOPE FLW.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS AROUND 10C WITH GOOD MIXING THIS AFTN...SUPPORT
HIGHS U60S MTNS TO MID 70S WARMER VALLEYS...WITH MAYBE A FEW U70S
POSSIBLE IN THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH 
PRES IS LOCATED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...RESULTING
IN MAINLY CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
QUICKLY DROP THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED MTN
VALLEYS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S DACKS/NEK TO NEAR 50F
CPV/UHI. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED MID 30S FOR SLK...CRNT MAV FOR SLK
IS SHOWING 32F. ALSO...GIVEN PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH...EXPECT
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY CT RIVER VALLEY AND DEEPER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL VT. TEMPS WL QUICKLY WARM ON MONDAY WITH LLVL
WAA AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY
00Z TUES...SUPPORTING HIGHS M70S MTNS/NEK TO L/M 80S WARMER
VALLEY. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW DECAYING 5H VORT AND WEAK TROF
APPROACHING THE SLV AROUND 21Z AND MOVING INTO THE CPV BY 03Z
TUES. THIS SYSTEM WL BE ENCOUNTERING DEEP DRY LAYER ASSOCIATED
WITH RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY. THINKING A WEAK LINE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH VERY MINOR/LIGHT QPF. WL MENTION SCHC/LOW CHC POPS
BTWN 21Z MONDAY INTO 06Z TUES...BUT NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT...ONLY
A QUICK SHOWER AND BEST CHC SLV. TEMPS WL BE WARMER ON MONDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASED SFC DWPTS...SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND MORE
CLOUDS. EXPECTING LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE L/M 50S NEK TO L/M 60S
CPV/SLV.
TUESDAY...WESTERLY FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED 5H VORT 
MOVING ACRS OUR NORTHERN ZNS BTWN 18Z-00Z. INCREASED LLVL MOISTURE 
WL RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND GREATER INSTABILITY. NAM/GFS 
SHOW CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG WITH GREATEST VALUES ACRS 
THE NORTHERN SLV ON TUES ALONG WITH LIS BTWN -1C AND -3C. SOME 
INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED 
ACRS OUR FA ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN VERY SLIGHT CHCS FOR 
SHOWERS/STORMS. ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE AREA WL REMAIN DRY WITH 
GREATEST POPS ACRS THE DACKS/SLV AFT 18Z. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE 
MOISTURE PROFILES QPF AMOUNTS WL BE LIGHT AND ANY SHOWER WL ONLY BE 
10 TO 20 MINUTES. 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...SUPPORTING 
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 407 AM EDT SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LEANED TOWARDS THE EARLIER TIMING OF
THE ECMWF WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH BELIEVE ITS DEPICTION OF
MCS WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL LOOKS OVERDONE. HAVE GONE WITH POPS
ANYWHERE FROM 30 TO 50 PERCENT FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF FOR
THURSDAY. GFS MAINTAINS WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
     WITH COLD FRONT BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...INDICATES DRIER AND COOLER NORTHWEST
FLOW. STAYED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH HAS MAINTAINED
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SCENARIO OVER PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. BY
FRIDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT OUR WEATHER WILL BE
DOMINATED BY CUTOFF LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S...THEN COOL TO SEASONAL NORMS LATER IN THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE 50S...EXCEPT 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM
LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT WILL
GIVE WAY TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA OVERNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE AT MPV.
ANTICIPATING MAINLY VFR AT MSS/PBG...MIX OF VFR/MVFR AT
BTV/RUT...MVFR WITH BRF IFR POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK. CLOUDS LINGER
SUNDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH CIGS VFR ALL SITES AFTER 12Z. CLEAR
SKIES THEN EXPECTED AFTER 16Z THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL GUST TO 15-18 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. COULD SEE FOG WITH
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE ALL TAF LOCATIONS 06Z-12Z MONDAY.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN PCPN POSSIBLE. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR
TUE-THU.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

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