Zone Forecast from NWS for the northern Green Mtn communities.

VTZ003-004-006-016-017-151045-
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...
ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL
248 PM EST TUE MAR 14 2006

.TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO 3
INCHES. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 1
TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOWS AROUND 20. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.

On the model discussion front, the 12z BTV ETA is telling.  48hr QPF 
(forecasted liquid equiv) ranges from a bulls-eye of 1.55" over Jay Peak 
to around 1" at Stowe/Smuggs/Bolton region, to .5-.75" over the SB/MRG 
region, .5" at Killington Peak and in the higher terrain of Bennington 
County, VT near Woodford.  

In the Adirondacks there is a large area of .75-1.0" with a couple small 
maximums of just over 1.0".

In the White Mountains, there is an area of .5 to locally over 1.0" around 
Bretton Woods and Franconia Notch (Cannon).  Like the last upslope event, 
these two resorts did quite well reporting over a foot while other White 
Mtn resorts like Attitash and Wildcat either had none or minimal 
accumulations.  

Taken literally, this is a significant upslope event.  What is surprising 
to me is that the model has come in over the last day with higher liquid 
equiv amounts than the last event.  With 10 to 1 ratios this is would be a 
decent event ranging from 5-6" around Killington and southern VT to 16" at 
Jay.  With even 15:1 and ETA forecasted amounts we're looking at a 8-16" 
amount in the 'Dacks and Greens, with localized 20"+ around Jay.

IMO, this is well over-done...but fun to at least think about and 
discuss.  In my forecast, I am basing my snowfall totals on the following 
liquid equivilant amounts...1" Jay, .5-.66" Stowe/Smuggs/Bolton, .33-.5" 
MRG/SB, and up to .33" at Killington southward.

Currently, radar showing snow showers and a couple squalls moving through 
the 'Dacks and northern Green Mountains.  Upslope signature, but on a 
southwesterly flow noted in the region north of I-89 with the possibility 
of a more steady snow developing purely from orographic lift.  Periods of 
squalls and snow showers are rotating through the southern 'Dacks and into 
regions south of I-89.  

So...still not expecting much in the way of accumulations tonight.  
Heaviest snow will fall late tomorrow afternoon and Wednesday night into 
Thursday when the winds finally back to true NW instead of WSW to WNW.  
Potential is there, will it be realized?  I hope so.  

-Scott    

  

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont.

To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html