Expires:202301031900;;016328
FPUS51 KBTV 031125
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
621 AM EST Tue Jan 3 2023
VTZ018-031900-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
621 AM EST Tue Jan 3 2023
.TODAY...Cloudy. A chance of rain or a slight chance of freezing
rain this morning, then rain or freezing rain this afternoon.
Highs in the upper 30s. Light and variable winds, becoming
southeast around 10 mph this afternoon. Chance of precipitation
90 percent.
.TONIGHT...Cloudy. Rain, mainly until midnight. Near steady
temperature in the mid 30s. Light and variable winds. Chance of
rain 80 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Cloudy. A chance of rain in the morning, then rain
likely or a chance of freezing rain in the afternoon. Ice
accumulation around a trace. Near steady temperature in the mid
30s. Light and variable winds, becoming north around 10 mph in
the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Rain or freezing rain or a chance of sleet.
Little or no sleet accumulation. Lows in the upper 20s. East
winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
.THURSDAY...Freezing rain likely or a chance of snow or rain.
Little or no snow accumulation. Highs in the lower 30s. Southeast
winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows in the upper 20s.
.FRIDAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Highs
in the mid 30s.
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s.
Highs in the lower 30s.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows around 20.
.SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 20s.
Lows 10 to 15.
$$
Expires:202301031200;;016677
ASUS41 KBTV 031130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST TUE JAN 03 2023
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-031200-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLEAR 30 27 88 CALM 30.10S
MONTPELIER CLEAR 28 22 78 CALM 30.12S
MORRISVILLE CLEAR 28 25 88 CALM 30.10S
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 27 25 92 MISG 30.09F
LYNDONVILLE* N/A 28 27 95 CALM 30.09F
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 29 29 100 CALM 30.09F
RUTLAND* PTCLDY 29 28 96 CALM 30.11R
SPRINGFIELD CLEAR 28 26 92 CALM 30.13R
HIGHGATE* N/A 36 30 80 S5 30.10R WCI 32
NEWPORT* FAIR 31 28 88 CALM 30.09F
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 30 24 78 CALM 30.07F HAZE
ISLAND POND* N/A 30 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 27 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 27 N/A N/A CALM N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 25 N/A N/A CALM N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 36 32 87 S7 N/A WCI 30
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 36 32 87 S14 N/A WCI 27
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 32 32 100 S5 N/A WCI 27
$$
Expires:No;;016351
FXUS61 KBTV 031125
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
625 AM EST Tue Jan 3 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain is expected to spread over much of the North Country today,
starting as a brief period of freezing rain in sheltered areas that
remain below freezing this morning. Rain exits overnight, but
another round of precipitation is expected to move in late Wednesday
and persist into Thursday, much of which would fall as a wintry mix
across northern areas. Snow, sleet, and ice accumulation could make
for difficult travel, especially the Thursday morning commute.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 621 AM EST Tuesday...No significant changes were needed
with this update. Have issued a Special Weather Statement for
patchy freezing rain/drizzle for south central/southeastern VT.
Temperatures are in the mid and upper 20s, and some light
returns can be seen lifting up through southern NY and New
England. While the bulk of any precipitation won't occur until
later today, some of this light activity may reach our southern
sections, and with temperatures below freezing, some light ice
accumulation is possible. Otherwise the forecast is in good
shape and no other changes were needed.
Previous discussion...Starting out chilly this morning with
many locations reporting temperatures in the mid and upper 20s.
This was due to more clearing than previously anticipated, but
thicker high cloud cover is now infiltrating across the region,
so wouldn't expect temperatures to fall much more as we head
toward daybreak. Meanwhile, we are awaiting the arrival of
precipitation, associated with a warm front that currently
stretches across OH/PA/NJ. Both the front and its precipitation
shield will lift northward through the day, but its arrival in
our area continues to be delayed by the latest model guidance.
Therefore, expect most areas will have warmed to above freezing
by the time the rain arrives, but some areas of freezing rain
will be possible into the early afternoon, especially in the CT
River Valley and sheltered locations east of the
central/southern Greens. Ice accumulations would be minimal, but
still enough to produce slick travel, so motorists should use
caution, especially on untreated roadways.
As has been the trend, the latest model guidance continues to lessen
the warm front's northward progress and expect it will remain just
to our south through the next 24-36 hours, with a weak wave of low
pressure progged to traverse along it late today and into the Gulf
of Maine overnight tonight. There will be some meager warming aloft
as winds briefly turn to the south/southwest ahead of the low, so
while rain should be the prevalent precipitation type, isolated
pockets of freezing rain will still be possible through this
afternoon and evening where cold air is slow to scour out. With the
front remaining further south, the steadiest rain will remain
focused across central/southern areas; locations along the
international border may in fact stay dry most of the day.
Precipitation will wind to an end late this evening/overnight
tonight as the low moves to our east. Winds turn back to the north
as well, allowing cold air to start to undercut warmer air aloft.
There should be a break in the steady precipitation late tonight
into Wednesday morning, but some light rain or freezing rain will be
possible, along with a light glaze of ice. Best chances for any
freezing rain would be along the international border. Given
thickening cloud cover and meager warm air advection, today's highs
are expected to remain in the 30s in most locations, with the
Champlain Valley and portions of the Adirondacks possibly peaking
above 40F. Tonight's lows will mainly be in the lower to mid 30s.
The focus then turns to a potentially significant icing event, the
bulk of which will occur in the Short Term period; please see that
section below for full details. Precipitation associated with this
system will spread into our region Wednesday afternoon/evening as
another wave of low pressure traverses along the front just to our
south. As mentioned above, we will see cold air bleeding down on
north winds and undercutting warm air aloft, so while most of the
area should start out as primarily rain, a wintry mix will become
increasingly likely across the north as the wedge of cold air pushes
southward. Exactly how far south and/or how deep this cold air will
be is still in question, so exact precipitation type is difficult to
pinpoint at this time. High temperatures will likely be early in the
day, especially in northern areas where temperatures may not warm
much at all through the day, remaining at or below freezing.
Central/southern VT should warm into the upper 30s to around 40 by
the afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 356 AM EST Tuesday...A mixed precipitation event will be
ongoing in at least southern portions of the region Wednesday night
as precipitation overspreads northern New York and Vermont
associated with a strong frontal wave. Plentiful and deep moisture
will be drawn northward around the Bermuda high pressure system
while shallow cold air will filter southward from a Canadian high
pressure system pressing the frontal boundary into southern New
England. As such, while snow levels will be above even our highest
peaks except for perhaps the far northern Vermont mountains,
subfreezing air below will support periods of freezing rain and
sleet. Because the frontal boundary looks rather wavy with strong
advection processes, some areas may see enough cooling to switch to
more sleet than freezing rain while other areas may stay marginally
warm enough to see plain rain. Furthermore, above freezing
temperatures expected on Wednesday will leave ground surfaces less
susceptible to ice accretion initially. As such, the current ice
accumulation forecast is a somewhat conservative in showing
sub-0.25" totals, but expect combination of favorably strong wind
speeds and lower wet bulb temperatures suggests portions of the St.
Lawrence Valley could see ice in the 0.25" to 0.5" range which could
have moderate impacts on trees and powerlines.
All together, colder spots will tend to be the northwestern
Champlain Valley and northern St. Lawrence Valley where slick travel
conditions for the Thursday morning commute are most likely.
Localized icy conditions are also favored in mid-slope regions of
the Adirondacks and central and eastern Vermont. With very
challenging thermal profiles, have indicated freezing rain or sleet
through the bulk of the event. Precipitation will taper off in the
morning as the frontal wave departs and moisture thins out. As
Canadian high pressure migrates eastward, the remaining low level
moisture and increasing easterly flow will generate a cold air
damming scenario helping keep temperatures coldest east of the Green
Mountains where any additional precipitation will become light snow
showers. Temperatures aloft will cool more significantly farther
west; increasing low level instability along with upslope flow over
the eastern Adirondacks will support snow showers as well. At this
time, not offering much in the way of precipitation amounts but it
bears watching. Greater coverage of snow showers will likely hold
off until Thursday night when the trailing upper level low to our
west begins moving overhead.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 356 AM EST Tuesday...Unremarkable weather is expected during
this period as typical winter weather, which has been atypical of
late, will occur. The best chances of light snow accumulations
across the region is at the start of the period as a formerly closed
upper level low to our west crosses the Northeast US. Temperatures
will be all below freezing and cold enough aloft for ice nucleation,
so while it won't be too cold, all snow is expected with this event.
Currently precipitation chances are in the chance category, but
expect scattered to numerous snow showers to pass over most
locations in the Thursday night to Friday afternoon timeframe if
current indications on the track of this system remain on target.
Following this system, a briefly and marginally favorable lake-
effect snow setup off of Lake Ontario is possible with otherwise dry
conditions are favored through the weekend and into Monday as zonal
flow takes the next low pressure area to our south based on the bulk
of ensemble guidance. Modified polar air associated with weak high
pressure will largely be in control which leads to temperatures
roughly seasonable with highs in the 20s and 30s and lows in the
single digits to low 20s depending on cloud cover. Coldest
conditions of the period currently look to occur on Sunday when low
level flow will more likely be out of the north.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Currently VFR at all terminals at
issuance of the 12z TAF package. Clouds will gradually lower
through the day from south to north with precipitation
spreading into the region. MVFR ceilings could develop as early
as 16z at KRUT, then spread northward, reaching the northern
terminals 21z-00z. Local IFR ceilings possible at KSLK after
00z. Precipitation will mainly fall as rain, with the bulk
occurring 18z-03z. Visibility mainly 4-6sm in steadiest rain.
Winds will be light through the TAF period, generally
south/southeast trending toward north after 21z.
Outlook...
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely FZRA,
Slight chance RA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
FZRA, Definite RA, Chance PL.
Thursday: MVFR. Chance RA, Chance FZRA, Chance SN.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio WXM-44 atop Mount Ascutney is currently off
the air due to a suspected problem with the RF transmission
cable/jumper at the antenna. A site visit will be necessary to
isolate the issue and, unfortunately, a return to service is
unknown at this time.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Hastings
EQUIPMENT...BTV
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