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September 2021, Week 5

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Subject:
From:
Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Thu, 30 Sep 2021 06:50:03 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
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Expires:202109302000;;405027
FPUS51 KBTV 300804
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
400 AM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021


VTZ018-302000-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
400 AM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy this morning, then becoming partly sunny.
Scattered showers. Highs around 50. North winds 10 to 15 mph.
Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers until
midnight. Patchy dense fog after midnight. Lows in the upper 30s.
North winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Patchy dense fog in the morning. Partly sunny. Highs in
the mid 50s. West winds around 10 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in the
morning. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. West winds
around 10 mph. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 50s. South winds around 10 mph. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 40s. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs around 60. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 50s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 40s. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 50s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 60. 

$$


Expires:202109301100;;411259
ASUS41 KBTV 301030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2021

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-301100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    50  48  93 N3        30.07R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    47  44  90 CALM      30.08R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    47  46  97 CALM      30.06R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     46  45  96 MISG      30.02S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    45  43  94 CALM      30.05S FOG              
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    46  46  99 CALM      30.08R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    46  46 100 CALM      30.08R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    46  45  96 CALM      30.05R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    48  47  96 N6        30.09R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    46  44  91 N5        30.06S                  
BENNINGTON     LGT RAIN  48  47  96 CALM      30.06R FOG              
ISLAND POND*     N/A     45 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     43 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     46 N/A N/A E1          N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     39 N/A N/A NW26        N/A  WCI  28          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     52  46  82 MISG        N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     52  46  82 NE18        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     52  45  76 NW15        N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;404988
FXUS61 KBTV 300803
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
403 AM EDT Thu Sep 30 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Additional rain showers will redevelop today and taper off 
during the overnight hours. Temperatures will be about ten 
degrees below seasonal normals today but will warm back above 
normal through the weekend. Drier conditions are expected on 
Friday, but more chances for showers return on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Thursday...Upper level low pressure system 
centered over Maine will rotate moisture into our forecast area 
today, especially across Vermont, leading to continuing 
scattered showers today. Early this morning we have had areas of
rain showers influenced by warm waters of Lake Champlain with 
cold air advection on northerly flow, blossoming over Chittenden
County and then drifting southward. We have had pretty 
persistent rain showers in Chittenden and Addison counties. 
Today will be cloudy with northerly flow continuing, 
temperatures will be about ten degrees below seasonal normals, 
generally maxing out in the upper 40s to mid 50s. As we head 
into the evening hours, a ridge of surface high pressure will 
move into our region from the northwest. Rain showers will 
finally come to an end. Upper level low will slowly move north 
and east. This will keep northwesterly flow in place across our 
region, but drier air will remain for tonight and Friday with 
ridge of surface high pressure in place. Will have some breaks 
in the clouds tonight, and with abundant surface moisture in 
place and winds slackening at night, could see some patchy fog 
develop especially in typical fog prone spots and across Vermont
where showers have lingered. Friday will be pretty cloudy with 
continued northwesterly flow due to some mid level moisture in 
place. Temperatures on Friday will be warmer than today, but 
still cooler than seasonal normals, generally ranging from the 
mid 50s to lower 60s. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...Upper low continues to slowly 
migrate NE but still under the influence of NW flow with a weak 
shortwave, surface trof and some moisture pooling along the 
boundary with a decent thermal gradient along the backside of 
the upper low, thus still need to keep a chance for some 
showers, esp northern areas as the day progresses Saturday but 
may stay dry until then.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...Despite being in some shortwave 
ridging between the departing upper low and the next approaching
digging shortwave on Sunday, there is the above mentioned 
boundary lingering with some residual moisture for a chance of 
showers.

As the upper Midwest low deepens and moves south, increased 
backing flow will bring moisture from the lower MS River Valley 
and Gulf coast into that boundary along with a developing wave 
for the wettest day of this period. Blocking pattern becomes 
more amplified Tue/Wed with Midwest system dropping into the 
lower MS River Valley and Western CONUS Upper ridge attempting 
to build north of the closed low. Each day should be slightly 
drier, leaning DRY for Wed, as the upper ridge builds and the 
closed low stays well south but we still have that nagging 
boundary.

Details and timing are low confidence as with any blocking 
pattern with the overall theme of not much change until we can 
get a change in the pattern which seems to be dominance of the 
upper ridge Wed/Thu time frame. At the same time...milder 
temperatures returning.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...SLK and RUT are currently IFR with low 
ceilings in place and will remain that way until later today, 
EFK is MVFR. Other terminals are just above MVFR, and ceilings 
will likely lower to MVFR in the next couple of hours. These 
MVFR conditions likely to linger through 18Z-21Z, and brief dips
towards 900 ft agl will be possible at EFK and SLK between 
roughly 08Z and 15Z. Some lingering lake effect showers off Lake
Champlain continue in the immediate Champlain valley, but 
unlikely to impact any TAF terminals. After 21Z, ceilings should
rise towards 3500-5000 ft agl. Winds mainly north to northwest 
3 to 8 knots through the period. 

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Friday Night: VFR. Isolated SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Neiles

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