Expires:201507012000;;921629
FPUS51 KBTV 010713
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
310 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015


VTZ006-012000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
310 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.TODAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING...THEN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE
OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE
OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. PATCHY FOG. LOWS AROUND 50. WEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 
.INDEPENDENCE DAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 
.SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 60. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. 

$$


Expires:201507011100;;929031
ASUS41 KBTV 011030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-011100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  65  61  87 E5        29.75F                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    61  58  90 S7        29.85F                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    63  60  90 CALM      29.82F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     61  59  93 MISG      29.82F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   RAIN      60  58  94 E5        29.85F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    68  61  78 CALM      29.74F                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    63  57  82 SE12      29.79F                  
SPRINGFIELD    LGT RAIN  61  60  97 CALM      29.82F                  
HIGHGATE*      LGT RAIN  62  61  94 SE5       29.74S                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    61  58  88 SE6       29.82S                  
BENNINGTON     LGT RAIN  65  63  93 VRB3      29.76F                  
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     57 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     54 N/A N/A SE10        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     64  63  94 SE9         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     64  63  94 S15         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     64  63  94 S1          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;922322
FXUS61 KBTV 010737
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
337 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED 
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS 
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY 
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS 
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC TONIGHT...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL 
MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RESULTING IN GENERALLY PLEASANT WEATHER 
CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTH-SOUTH FROM SERN ONTARIO ACROSS ERN OH/WV EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL ACQUIRE SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT TRANSLATES NEWD ACROSS NY
LATE THIS MORNING AND ACROSS VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATELY
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS (BY EARLY JULY STANDARDS)...CYCLONIC FLOW AND
MID-LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT
APPEARS SHOWERS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN...BUT
PREVAILING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING INFLUENCE OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAKE FORECAST MAX SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY A
BIT UNCERTAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING NAM12/GFS/LOCALLY RUN BTV-4KM WRF INDICATE
SBCAPE VALUES 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN VT AND
PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG
ACROSS NRN NY. SWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY 25-30
KTS...SUGGESTING SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IF INSTABILITY CAN
MATERIALIZE AS FORECAST. WOULD ANTICIPATE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS VT...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO...WITH BEST POTENTIAL CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...BUT WILL
DEPEND ON DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS BEST MID-
LEVEL FORCING MOVES THRU CENTRAL VT THIS AFTERNOON. SPC 21Z CALIBRATED
SREF PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS SHOWS SOME LOW POTENTIAL ACROSS
VT THIS AFTN (HIGHEST 18-21Z) AND INITIAL 06Z SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
CARRIES 5% PROBABILITY OF SVR HAIL/WIND WITHIN 25 MILES OF A
POINT. WILL CARRY MENTION OF SUB-SEVERE WIND IN THE GRIDS AND WILL 
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MESOSCALE TRENDS INTO THE DAYLIGHT HRS. 

HIGHS TODAY GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN 
THE 60-65F RANGE. GRADIENT FLOW SUPPORTS SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH 
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN BEFORE 
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. GUSTS 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN.  

HIGHEST POP VALUES GENERALLY THIS AFTERNOON (70-90%)...AND THEN 
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS NORTH 
AND EAST OUT OF THE AREA. WILL SEE A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT WITH A 
MODEST ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT PASSING THRU 00-03Z WITH TEMPERATURES 
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND LINGERING CLOUDS THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF 
TONIGHT TO LIMIT NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 317 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE LIFTS OUT NEWD
ACROSS QUEBEC BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. 00Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM IN PREVAILING MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW REGIME...AND
SHOULD YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. IT
WILL FEEL PLEASANT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S
BY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MIXING/INSOLATIONAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 8-14 MPH 15-23Z. 850MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND +8C AND SUNSHINE SUPPORTS VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THURSDAY 
NIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 1000-500MB MEAN RH VALUES OF 20-30 
PERCENT. ALL IN ALL A QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE WINDS CONTROLLED BY LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. WITH MOIST 
SOIL CONDITIONS...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE 
FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS 06-12Z FRIDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING 
WILL RESULT IN WIDE TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE 
NRN ADIRODNACKS AND VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM...TO THE LOW-MID 50S 
IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY (WARMEST NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN). 
 
CONTINUED PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
MAINTENANCE OF WEAK RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT AND <30% MEAN
1000-500MB RH VALUES. 850MB TEMPS MODERATE SOME TO +10 TO +12C AND
SHOULD SEE VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...BUT WITH CONTINUED LOW
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR GREATER
UNCERTAINTY ON CHCS FOR PRECIP ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS.
OTHERWISE...EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY.
HAVE CONTINUE TO MENTION SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH VERY WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND 5H VORT IN JET WINDS
ALOFT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW WEAK RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IMPACTING OUR NORTHERN ZNS...WITH VERY MINIMAL
INSTABILITY VALUES. HAVE JUST MENTION SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER
ATTM. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MTNS ON SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON SUNDAY...WITH LATEST 00Z GFS
SHOWING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM COMING CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE OUR
REGION WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHCS WHILE ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY. GFS SHOWS
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH FIELDS...ALONG WITH A DEEPER TROF ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN SOME LIFT AND WEAK
INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP FCST DRY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY
FROM SFC HEATING AND WEAK INSTABILITY. ANY ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN BY SUNSET WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR BOTH SAT/SUN AND
LOWS IN THE 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO NEAR 60F CPV. MUCH WARMER AIR
ARRIVES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 15C BY 18Z
TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WARMER VALLEYS. HAVE
MENTION TEMPS 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL CHCS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE LATE TUES
INTO WEDS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NY...WHICH
IS TRACKING TOWARD OUR TAF SITES. EXPECTING RAIN TO ARRIVE BTWN
07Z-09Z...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE. MPV HAS FOG IN
THIS MORNING WITH 1/4SM VIS AND CIGS AT 100 FEET...BUT THINK THIS
FOG WILL LIFT WHEN RAIN ARRIVES BTWN 07Z-08Z. ELSEWHERE...CIGS
WILL CONTINUE TO COME DOWN AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH MVFR CIGS
LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES BY 12Z THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED AFT 16Z. SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND
HEAVY DOWN POURS...WHICH WILL REDUCE VIS BLW 3SM AT TIMES. HAVE
USED A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 16Z AND 19Z TO COVER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTN...WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS OVER
OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF SITES...BTV/PBG/RUT/MPV/SLK. SLOW CLEARING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
VFR WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...EXCEPT FOR IFR IN FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK
BTWN 06Z AND 12Z THURS AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY ON SHOWER
POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...WITH LATEST TRENDS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

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