Expires:202207012000;;488943
FPUS51 KBTV 011039
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
635 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022
VTZ018-012000-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
635 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022
.TODAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. Warmer with highs in the mid 80s.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms until midnight, then mostly cloudy with showers
with a slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the
lower 60s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain
80 percent.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly
sunny. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Highs in the upper
70s. Southwest winds around 10 mph, becoming west in the
afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Southwest
winds around 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Northwest winds around
10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 50s.
.INDEPENDENCE DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Highs in the
mid 70s. Lows in the upper 50s.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the lower 70s.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 50s.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid
50s. Highs in the lower 70s.
$$
Expires:202207011100;;488717
ASUS41 KBTV 011030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI JUL 01 2022
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-011100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON MOCLDY 72 56 57 S13 29.96F
MONTPELIER PTCLDY 57 53 86 CALM 30.05F
MORRISVILLE PTCLDY 54 52 93 CALM 30.00F
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 55 53 93 MISG 30.02F
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 55 53 91 CALM 30.05S
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 69 58 67 CALM 30.00F
RUTLAND* PTCLDY 61 57 87 SE8 30.04F
SPRINGFIELD PTCLDY 57 54 89 CALM 30.06F
HIGHGATE* MOCLDY 72 58 62 S6 29.94S
NEWPORT* FAIR 64 51 64 S10 30.00F
BENNINGTON PTCLDY 56 55 97 CALM 30.05F
ISLAND POND* N/A 55 N/A N/A E1 N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 52 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 63 N/A N/A CALM N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 61 52 72 S16 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;488928
FXUS61 KBTV 011038
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
638 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures return today with highs expected to peak
into the mid 80s to low 90s. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will
develop later today and continue overnight and early Saturday as a
cold front crosses the region. Temperatures trend cooler for the
latter half of the holiday weekend with the next chance for
precipitation arriving Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 635 AM EDT Friday...No significant changes were made to
the forecast with this update. Most areas remain partly sunny
this morning as mid/high clouds stream over the region. The
exceptions are portions of the northern Adirondacks and south
central VT where there are some sunny breaks. These should fill
in as the morning wears on, though. Temperatures are already
warming nicely in spots; currently 73F here at BTV, and several
locations in the St Lawrence Valley are reporting temperatures
in the lower 70s, as well. Have made adjustments to sky cover
and temperatures to match the above trends. Otherwise the
forecast remains in good shape and no other changes were needed.
Previous discussion...Still anticipating a warm day today with
increasing precipitation chances heading into the evening and
overnight hours. The warm front currently bisects the forecast area
from northwest to southeast, and it will continue to lift northward
through the early morning hours on increasing southwest flow. Hence
expect temperatures will warm well into the 80s to around 90 across
much of the area. That being said, there's a good bit of cloud cover
upstream, and if this is either thicker or thinner than expected,
temperatures will be cooler or warmer (respectively) than currently
indicated. Dewpoints won't be overly oppressive though, so this will
help keep heat index values at or below the low 90s. Winds will be
on the breezy side as steepening low-level lapse rates allow for
good mixing, and this will help make the day feel a touch cooler
than the ambient temperatures. Still, it'll be a warm one and anyone
with outdoor plans should take proper precautions.
The other concern for today/tonight will be the potential for
showers and thunderstorms. The trend on the latest CAM runs has been
to slow the development of convection this afternoon, holding it off
until more toward evening, closer to the arrival of a cold front
approaching from the Great Lakes. There is a band of showers with
embedded thunder, associated with a prefrontal trough, that is
streaming by just to our northwest which will gradually shift
eastward through the morning hours. This area of precipitation will
lessen in intensity and coverage as it draws closer, so don't expect
much more than some light rain showers to still exist by the time it
enters the St Lawrence Valley. However, as we see increasing heating
through the day, isolated to scattered showers could redevelop along
the trough and/or over the higher terrain later this afternoon.
Although the bulk of the precipitation should hold off until this
evening/overnight ahead of the actual frontal passage, SB CAPE of
400-800 J/kg and 0-6km shear of around 40 kt indicate that any cells
that do develop could be on the strong side. Gusty winds and briefly
heavy rainfall would be the most likely threats.
As mentioned above, showers should become more numerous this evening
and overnight with the cold frontal passage. Moisture will pool
ahead of the front, with PWATs exceeding 1.50 inches. This combined
with warm cloud depths of 11+ kft and deep saturated profiles will
result in efficient rainfall processes. There will be some elevated
instability present, so any convective elements will be capable of
producing heavy rainfall. The activity should be fairly progressive
so flooding is not anticipated, but some ponding of water in poor
drainage areas will be possible in any thunderstorms. Given the
moisture present, it'll be a muggy night with lows in the 60s.
The cold front will be draped from roughly the Northeast Kingdom
southwestward through the southern Champlain Valley early Saturday
morning, and it will continue to push southward through the morning
hours. As such, although showers may wane a bit toward daybreak,
expect things to redevelop over eastern/southern sections of our
forecast area as we head toward afternoon. Timing of the frontal
passage is not optimal however, and the best instability/shear will
be to our south by peak heating. Therefore, strong storms are not
expected, though briefly heavy rainfall will still be possible.
Drier air will follow in the front's wake, ending precipitation
across much of our area by mid/late afternoon. Clearing skies and
breezy west winds are expected thereafter. Highs will range from the
mid 70s to the mid 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 353 AM EDT Friday...As the aforementioned front continues to
shift east of the region Saturday night, surface high pressure will
build in behind it with clearing skies expected along with seasonal
temperatures in the 50s. High pressure then remains in control for
Sunday with just some passing cirrus clouds and temperatures just
slightly below normal in the mid/upper 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 353 AM EDT Friday...Looking forward to next week the overall
synoptic pattern looks to be a rather stagnant one across the entire
CONUS with a persistent longwave trough over the Great Lakes and
Northeast states, while a mid/upper level ridge over the Southeast
slowly retrogrades westward to the Four Corners region by the end of
the week. West-northwest flow will generally prevail over the BTV
forecast area through the period resulting in uncertainty in the
forecast in regard to the timing of any shortwave energy that
develops in the lee of the Rockies and rides over the ridge. The
best chance for precipitation at this time appears to be during the
Monday night to Tuesday timeframe where there is some consensus
among medium range guidance, but thereafter model solutions diverge
though are generally on the drier side. Greater confidence resides
in the temperature forecast which due to conditions mentioned above,
below normal highs ranging through the 70s are expected, with near
normal lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the forecast period with LLWS and some southerly breezes
being the main weather parameters of note. A low level jet
will continue to move along the international border through 13z
Friday, bringing 30-40 kts of southwest flow over light
southerly winds at the surface during that time. LLWS will
mainly impact MSS. South winds increase after 14z, and gusts of
15 to 20+ kt will be common, especially in the Champlain and St
Lawrence Valleys. These winds will abate after sunset.
Otherwise, just SCT-BKN mid/high clouds to prevail at all
terminals through 00z Saturday. Ceilings lower thereafter with
scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms developing. Have kept
mention of precipitation limited to VCSH since showers will be
scattered through 06z.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Independence Day: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Hastings
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