Expires:201511112100;;188045
FPUS51 KBTV 111140
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
636 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015


VTZ006-112100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
636 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015

.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.THURSDAY...CLOUDY...RAIN...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
HIGHS AROUND 40. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. 

$$


Expires:201511111200;;187566
ASUS41 KBTV 111130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-111200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    45  37  73 SE3       29.90S                  
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  39  38  96 CALM      29.94S                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    41  33  73 CALM      29.92F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     36  33  89 MISG      29.89F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    43  35  74 W3        29.91S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    43  43 100 CALM      29.89S                  
SPRINGFIELD    RAIN      42  41  96 CALM      29.91S FOG              
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    41  37  86 CALM      29.92R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      35  32  89 CALM      29.92S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    43  38  82 N6        29.84S                  
SUTTON*          N/A     45 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     41 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     36 N/A N/A NE17        N/A  WCI  25          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     46  41  81 N3          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     48  43  81 N7          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;188071
FXUS61 KBTV 111142
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
642 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING
ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...TURN
BRIEFLY COOLER AND CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THEN
TREND WARMER ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 636 AM EST WEDNESDAY...ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY TEMPS/POPS FOR THIS MORNING TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS
AND TRENDS. CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT.
MID LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENING A BIT AS IT MOVES OFF COAST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...WHILE SURFACE LOW PASSES
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. MEANWHILE...INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. HAVE LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR NORTHWEST NEW YORK STATE DUE AREA OF SHOWERS ADVANCING EAST
FROM NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. HIGHEST POPS FOR THIS MORNING (70-80
PERCENT) ARE INDICATED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA
WITH ONLY CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH. TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE 0.15 TO 0.25"
SOUTH...BUT JUST A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OVER THE NORTH. ONCE
ANY LIGHT RAIN COMES TO AN END...EXPECT RATHER CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. TEMPS NOT MOVING MUCH TODAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE
LOWER 50S FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 422 AM EST WEDNESDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IN PLACE TONIGHT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS INDICATE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLENTIFUL WITH STRATUS LAYER IN PLACE...SO HAVE
CONTINUED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MID 30S EAST OF THE GREENS TO
THE LOWER 40S WEST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

WEATHER CONDITIONS DETERIORATE RATHER RAPIDLY ON THURSDAY AS
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN DYNAMICS AND
FORCING WILL BE GREATEST IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND OCCLUDED
FRONT. RAIN CONTINUES THURSDAY EVENING...THEN BECOMES MORE SHOWERY
WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.20 TO 0.50 INCHES
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 40-50 KTS AT
4-5 KFT MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PRECIPITATION TOTALS. MAX TEMPS
THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S EAST OF
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPS REMAIN MILD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S. SOME MODERATE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WITH SOUTH WINDS
15-25 MPH GUSTING TO 35 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND STRONGEST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE WINDS WILL BE 15-25 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.

BLUSTERY AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS VERTICALLY
STACKED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
INTO QUEBEC. EXPECT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT...WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. TEMPS
GRADUALLY COOL WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C...SO RAIN MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE SUMMITS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE LOW TRACKS CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA...PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 25-35 MPH ACROSS VERMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTER THINKING AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFOREMENTIONED IN THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRUDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC FRIDAY EVENING, EXITING OFF INTO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE
BY 12Z SATURDAY. AS THE ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION, GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
STILL OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE FIRST (OF
HOPEFULLY MANY) UPSLOPE EVENT OF THE SEASON. FORECAST FROUDE
NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT GENERALLY UNBLOCKED FLOW SO SNOWFALL MAXIMA
WILL FALL CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAIN RIDGE CRESTS AND ON THE LEE SIDE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. THERMAL PROFILES
CONTINUE SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY AREA-WIDE,
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW ABOVE 1000 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IN GENERAL, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
BELOW 1000 FEET WILL BE A DUSTING TO 1", BUT ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WE COULD SEE A GOOD 2-5".

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON DRIER AIR MOVES IN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH
COUNTRY'S WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
LAGGING BEHIND, NOT BUILDING OVER THE NORTHEAST UNTIL MONDAY. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE AREA, MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL FEATURE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH MVFR MOVING INTO THE REGION
THEREAFTER. MID-LEVEL VFR DECK ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL
SLOWLY LOWER OVER TIME TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS
WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD, MOSTLY
AFFECTING KBTV/KMPV/KRUT THROUGH MID-DAY. RAIN SHOWERS END BY 18Z
WITH SOME SCATTERING OF CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE AN MVFR DECK
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST, APPROACHING
KMSS/KSLK AFTER 00Z, AND EASTWARD AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND LOCALLY VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 
12Z THU - 12Z FRI...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY.
12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY
FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST SATURDAY.
00Z SUN - 00Z MON...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
RUTLAND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AWOS SYSTEM ARE STILL UNAVAILABLE.
FAA TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM. WE DO NOT HAVE ANY
ESTIMATE ON WHEN DATA WILL BECOME AVAILABLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...BTV STAFF

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