First half of winter looks warmer than normal, less than normal snowfall, occasionally icy with storm track primarily to our west tracking storms to our north (keeps us in the warm sector). Less a coastal storm track, or hybrid systems tracking to our south like last week (good to keep precip as all snow)
Wild, wild card will be February and especially March. So may be slim pickins. I think Jay to Stowe with lake effect under colder mid to late December will be best situation for snow accrual but the odd hybrid, miller B Nor'easter can't be ruled out at the end of major pattern changes but the problem may be too far southeast for us, better for Maine.

Basis: Strong +AO (Polar vortex) and cousin neutral to +NAO coincides with super +EPO, Weak La Nina.
The AO is connected to stratospheric warming events which have been weak to nonexistent. This usually does not last all winter so AO and NAO change to negative at some point will change everything - we just don't know and cannot predict timing.

Roger Hill Weathering Heights




-----Original Message-----
From: Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Brian C
Sent: Tuesday, November 29, 2011 9:32 AM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: [SKIVT-L] Say it ain't so

Any comments on this weathermen?

http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/article/20111129/NEWS02/111128022/Warm-Vermont-fall-could-mean-warm-Vermont-winter?odyssey=tab|topnews|img|FRONTPAGE

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