Expires:200509022115;;685768
FPUS51 KBTV 020745
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
344 AM EDT FRI SEP 2 2005


VTZ006-016-017-022115-
LAMOILLE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL
344 AM EDT FRI SEP 2 2005

.TODAY...SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 
70S. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING...INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 
TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
.TONIGHT...BECOMING CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 
20 MPH...DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY 
CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 
IN THE LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS 
UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. 
.LABOR DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. 

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
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FXUS61 KBTV 020739
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
339 AM EDT FRI SEP 2 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO
PROVINCE EARLY THIS MORNING.  FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
EAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE TODAY.  AS A RESULT...MOST FAVORABLE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER AND CONFINE ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF VERMONT AND NEW YORK.
WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON NORTH
OF A WANAKENA...BURLINGTON...SAINT JOHNSBURY LINE.  ANY THREAT FOR
SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
MOST CLOUDS TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE...THUS SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
ONLY BY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  WARMEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
OVER THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AROUND +13C...AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY.  MIXING HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 7000 TO 8000 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH 30 KNOTS OF WIND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER...COULD SEE SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUPPORT THIS IDEA.
WILL MENTION BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OVER MUCH OF VERMONT.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.  THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO ALL AREAS.  COOLER 850
MB TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.  NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.  WITH
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB...TEMPERATURES AT THIS LEVEL
DROP TO AROUND +5C...AND COMBINED WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.
&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE WITH RESPECT TO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.  APPEARS UPPER RIDGING WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION WITH UPPER TROUGH/LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST.  THIS WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...WHICH GOING FORECAST HAS HANDLED
WELL...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.  AS A RESULT...NO CHANGES
ARE NEEDED FOR THE LABOR DAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR COND AT KBTV AND KMSS THRU 17Z-18Z AS FRNT APPROACHES REGION.
TEMPO MVFR COND FROM 18Z-00Z W/ LOW CLD DECK AROUND 3KFT...AND
SCT-BKN. KMPV AND KSLK WILL BE IFR TO VLIFR DUR TO FG DEVELOPMENT
UNDER LIGHT TO CALM WIND COND. GRADUALLY UP TO VFR COND AS WINDS
INCR DURING MORNING HRS. SKY COND WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFT FROPA/00Z
W/ SCT LOW CLD. WINDS WILL INCR AS FRNT APPROACHES FOR ALL
SITES...FROM 10KTS OR LESS FROM S SW TO WSW AND EVENTUALLY NW AFT
FROPA BY 00Z. WIND SPEED WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20KTS W/ GUSTS
POSSIBLE UP TO 30KTS...ESPECIALLY AFT 18Z. LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED
W/ FRNT.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...JN





FXUS61 KBTV 020152 AAA
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
955 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO ADD PATCHY FOG FOR ALL BUT THE CHAMPLAIN AND
ST LAWRENCE VLYS...AND TO ASSURE CONSISTENCY WITH CURRENT AVIATION
TERMINAL FORECASTS. WINDS LIGHTENED QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
RELATIVELY LOW DWPTS SHOULD ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.  GROUND
IS STILL MOIST FROM ALL THE RAIN YESTERDAY AND SHOULD HELP FORMATION
OF GROUND FOG.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 236 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2005)

SYNOPSIS...
HI PRESS TO BUILD IN ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST INTO TONITE. CFROPA
EXPECTED ACRS THE FA ON FRI. MORE HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE GREAT
LKS REGION ON SAT AND SAT NITE. UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA ON
SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT NITE.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.
SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA ON FRI NITE AND
EARLY ON SAT. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA ON FRI AFTERNOON
THRU SAT NITE. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA ON
FRI AFTERNOON. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE NRN TIER ZONES ON
FRI AFTERNOON AND ACRS THE ENTIRE FA ON SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PW
VALUES ACRS THE FA ON FRI THRU SAT NITE APPEAR TO BE 0.75-1".

VIS SAT PIX SHOW A FAIR AMT OF DIURNAL CLDS ACRS MUCH OF THE FA ATTM.
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...HAVE ADDED IN SOME MORE CLDS AND
SCHC POPS MOSTLY ACRS THE NRN TIER ZONES FOR SOME POSSIBLE -SHRA ON
FRI. THE REST OF THE GOING FCST FOR DRY WX ON FRI NITE AND CHC POPS
ACRS MUCH OF THE FA ON SAT AND INTO SAT NITE LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.
LATER SHIFTS CAN KEEP AN EYE ON ANY POSSIBLE FG FORMATION AT NITE
ACRS THE FA. T1MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE M40S-50S TONITE. T1MAX TEMPS ARE
IN THE U70S-M80S ON FRI AND BASICALLY AROUND 80F ON SAT.

WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY
330 PM.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
NO MAJOR CHGS TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST AT THIS TIME...AND
PERSISTENCE LOOKS TO BE THE BEST OPTION AT THIS POINT. LATEST
OP/ENSEMBLE SOLNS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...OFFERING
UPPER AIR TROUGH TO SWING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A FEW
CLOUDS...THEN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ATOP REGION FOR MOST OF
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. THUS WILL ADVERTISE PTLY
SUNNY AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY SUNNY DAYS/CLR
NIGHTS MON INTO WED WITH TEMPS MODERATING TO SEASONAL OR SLIGHTLY ABV
NORMAL READINGS BY LATER PERIODS AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES.
LATEST HPC AND MEDIUM RANGE OP RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF DO SUGGEST SOME
SORT OF WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY AFFECTING AREA BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...
AND WILL OPT TO INTRODUCE LOW CHC OF -SHRAS HERE FOR CONSISTENCY.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED AREA WIDE THROUGH MUCH OF FCST PERIOD. MODERATE
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW TO SUBSIDE OVERNT AS SFC RIDGE AXIS CROSSES
AREA. FAVORED MTN LOCALES...ESP E OF GREEN MTNS TO SEE PATCHY
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS IN BR/FG BTWN 06-12Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE MARKEDLY AFT 12Z TOMORROW UNDER
AMPLE SUN. LATEST SOUNDING PROFILES ARGUE FOR BNDRY LYR MIXING TO
NEAR 650 HPA LVL BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT BREEZY
CONDS ACROSS BROADER VALLEY LOCALES OF KBTV/KMSS.

HYDROLOGY...
48-HR QPE (THRU 14Z TODAY) ACRS THE FA APPEARS TO GENERALLY BE
1-3"...WITH A MIN OF AROUND 0.5" ACRS SE VT AND A MAX OF NEAR 5" ACRS
NRN NY STATE. THERE APPEAR TO BE NO LINGERING HYDRO CONCERNS FROM
THIS PCPN ACRS THE FA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REB









FXUS61 KBTV 011837
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
236 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
HI PRESS TO BUILD IN ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST INTO TONITE. CFROPA
EXPECTED ACRS THE FA ON FRI. MORE HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE GREAT
LKS REGION ON SAT AND SAT NITE. UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA ON
SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT NITE.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.
SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA ON FRI NITE AND
EARLY ON SAT. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA ON FRI AFTERNOON
THRU SAT NITE. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA ON
FRI AFTERNOON. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE NRN TIER ZONES ON
FRI AFTERNOON AND ACRS THE ENTIRE FA ON SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PW
VALUES ACRS THE FA ON FRI THRU SAT NITE APPEAR TO BE 0.75-1".

VIS SAT PIX SHOW A FAIR AMT OF DIURNAL CLDS ACRS MUCH OF THE FA ATTM.
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...HAVE ADDED IN SOME MORE CLDS AND
SCHC POPS MOSTLY ACRS THE NRN TIER ZONES FOR SOME POSSIBLE -SHRA ON
FRI. THE REST OF THE GOING FCST FOR DRY WX ON FRI NITE AND CHC POPS
ACRS MUCH OF THE FA ON SAT AND INTO SAT NITE LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.
LATER SHIFTS CAN KEEP AN EYE ON ANY POSSIBLE FG FORMATION AT NITE
ACRS THE FA. T1MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE M40S-50S TONITE. T1MAX TEMPS ARE
IN THE U70S-M80S ON FRI AND BASICALLY AROUND 80F ON SAT.

WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY
330 PM.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
NO MAJOR CHGS TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST AT THIS TIME...AND
PERSISTENCE LOOKS TO BE THE BEST OPTION AT THIS POINT. LATEST
OP/ENSEMBLE SOLNS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...OFFERING
UPPER AIR TROUGH TO SWING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A FEW
CLOUDS...THEN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ATOP REGION FOR MOST OF
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. THUS WILL ADVERTISE PTLY
SUNNY AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY SUNNY DAYS/CLR
NIGHTS MON INTO WED WITH TEMPS MODERATING TO SEASONAL OR SLIGHTLY ABV
NORMAL READINGS BY LATER PERIODS AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES.
LATEST HPC AND MEDIUM RANGE OP RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF DO SUGGEST SOME
SORT OF WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY AFFECTING AREA BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...
AND WILL OPT TO INTRODUCE LOW CHC OF -SHRAS HERE FOR CONSISTENCY.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED AREA WIDE THROUGH MUCH OF FCST PERIOD. MODERATE
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW TO SUBSIDE OVERNT AS SFC RIDGE AXIS CROSSES
AREA. FAVORED MTN LOCALES...ESP E OF GREEN MTNS TO SEE PATCHY
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS IN BR/FG BTWN 06-12Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE MARKEDLY AFT 12Z TOMORROW UNDER
AMPLE SUN. LATEST SOUNDING PROFILES ARGUE FOR BNDRY LYR MIXING TO
NEAR 650 HPA LVL BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT BREEZY
CONDS ACROSS BROADER VALLEY LOCALES OF KBTV/KMSS.

.HYDROLOGY...
48-HR QPE (THRU 14Z TODAY) ACRS THE FA APPEARS TO GENERALLY BE
1-3"...WITH A MIN OF AROUND 0.5" ACRS SE VT AND A MAX OF NEAR 5" ACRS
NRN NY STATE. THERE APPEAR TO BE NO LINGERING HYDRO CONCERNS FROM
THIS PCPN ACRS THE FA.

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/HYDROLOGY...MURRAY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JMG




   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

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