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November 2022, Week 1

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Subject:
From:
Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Mon, 7 Nov 2022 06:50:02 -0500
Content-Type:
text/plain
Parts/Attachments:
text/plain (249 lines)
Expires:202211071800;;707920
FPUS51 KBTV 071101
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
557 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2022


VTZ018-071800-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
557 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2022

.TODAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. Temperature falling into
the lower 50s this afternoon. West winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts
up to 35 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Northwest winds
15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. Northwest winds
15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 20s. North winds 10 to
15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. South winds around
10 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND VETERANS DAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the
lower 40s. Highs around 60. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...Rain. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs
in the mid 50s. Chance of rain 80 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower
30s. Highs in the upper 30s. 

$$


Expires:202211071200;;709548
ASUS41 KBTV 071130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST MON NOV 07 2022

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-071200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLEAR     57  46  66 S7        30.03R                  
MONTPELIER     CLEAR     64  37  36 SW17G26   30.05F                  
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR     52  50  93 N3        30.02R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     59  57  93 MISG      29.99F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       56  54  95 SE3       30.03F VSB 1/4          
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      55  44  67 CALM      30.06S                  
RUTLAND*       PTCLDY    62  48  60 SW3       30.08S                  
SPRINGFIELD    PTCLDY    63  56  78 W8        30.08R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      59  42  53 SW7       30.00S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      53  45  73 SW5       30.02R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    61  51  70 SW7       30.12R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     50 N/A N/A SE1         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     52 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     46 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     45 N/A N/A W41G54      N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     61  46  59 SW13G20     N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     63  46  55 SW14        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     63  41  45 SW18G24     N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;709696
FXUS61 KBTV 071135
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
635 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain is exiting the region early this morning, and will give way
to quickly building high pressure. Expect breezy weather, with
relatively clear skies and no chances for precipitation. A 
return to normal temperatures and dry conditions is expected for
Tuesday into Wednesday, before another warm up occurs for 
Thursday into Friday. The next rain maker is expected to
approach early Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 627 AM EST Monday...The last of the rain showers has
departed, with mostly clear skies. Winds did decrease overnight,
but are now beginning to pick back up again. Adjusted some of
the hourly points for the next few hours, but otherwise, all is
on pace. Have a great day!

Previous discussion...
Our stretch of record breaking warmth is coming to an end. 
Isolated rain showers are slowly edging eastwards, and are about
to exit the region. We remain in southwest to westerly flow, 
and the upper trough that will usher in distinctly colder air 
will not reach the area until later this afternoon. So another 
warm day with highs in mid 50s to near 60 in northern New York, 
and 60s across Vermont will be the theme of the day. Deep-layer 
dry air will dominate and clear out skies mid day, though some 
moisture could get trapped beneath an inversion layer as low- 
level lapse rates steepen. Perhaps we can get some nice looking 
lenticular clouds along mountain ridges out of today, as our 
flow remains fast and some mid-level moisture streams along the 
upper trough. Expect west- southwest to west winds to pick up to
15 to 25 mph sustained, and gusts 25 to 35 mph, with fastest 
winds over the St. Lawrence Valley and Northeast Kingdom. 
Relative humidity values will be fairly low around 30 to 35 
percent, but between the abundant rain and low solar angle, it 
may be a challenge to truly dry out.

For tonight, winds will turn northwesterly, and finally, cold air
advects into the region. Overnight lows will be fairly seasonable
for this time of year, dropping into the mid 20s to mid 30s. Winds
will remain brisk beneath some tight pressure gradients, and it'll
be a shock to the system after such warm nights as of late. The
brunt of the coldest air shifts east Tuesday, but the airmass will
still be plenty cool with high temperatures near 40 into the mid
40s. Skies mostly clear with overall drier air compared to today,
but perhaps a cloud or two near ridgelines will be possible. Low
relative humidity values are possible once again, but the cooler
daytime highs should keep values around 35 to 40 percent. Northwest
to northerly winds will not be as potent either, with 10 to 15 mph
sustained and gusts to 25 mph. We will still keep an eye on fire
weather conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 344 AM EST Monday...Consensus of 00Z NWP guidance suite builds
approx 1040mb surface anticyclone southeastward from Ontario Tuesday
night, with center of sfc high cresting over VT around 12Z
Wednesday. Deep dry layer and diminishing winds Tuesday night should
set up good radiational cooling conditions. Skies should be mainly
clear, though steep lapse rates over the warm waters of Lake
Champlain may induce some scattered stratocu during the overnight
hrs over the Lake and adjacent shorelines. Some patchy fog is also
possible in the favored northern valleys, given the 0.50-1" rainfall
that occurred on Sunday. Overnight lows mainly in the upper teens to
lower 20s, but locally in the mid teens across the nrn Adirondacks
and possibly far nern VT. Will be quite a change from the
unseasonably warm nights over the past several days.

High pressure shifts south and east of New England during the day
Wednesday, but remains in control of our weather. Will see a
developing S-SW return flow allowing temperatures to moderate about
10deg warmer under mainly sunny skies (highs in the low-mid 50s for
most valley locations). PoPs NIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 344 AM EST Monday...Dry and pleasant conditions will continue
Wednesday night through Friday, with gradually moderating
temperatures back above seasonal averages as deep-layer ridge
strengthens across the western Atlantic and across the mid-Atlantic
coast. A shallow cold front will push swd into southern Quebec
Thursday into Thursday night, but at this time appears to remain
north of the intl border and should not have any significant impact
on our weather (other than some mid-upper level clouds northern
areas Thursday into Thursday night). Looking for valley highs back
into the lower 60s for Thursday, and low-mid 60s on Friday. Have
gone above MOS consensus on forecast highs based on unseasonably
warm progged 850mb temps of +10 to +12C during the Thu/Fri
timeframe.

Heading into Friday night and Saturday, it continues to appear that
rich tropical moisture will be entrained northward in advance of a
strong occluded frontal system approaching from the Great Lakes
region. Generally good consistency for this scenario - including
timing - between operational GFS/CMC/ECMWF indicating overcast skies
and rainfall overspreading the North Country from SW-NE during the
latter half of Friday night. Should see widespread rainfall thru the
first half of Saturday before frontal system clears the region to
the east and moisture axis is pushed toward the New England
coastline. May see some locally moderate to heavy rainfall as PW
values potentially reach 1.25-1.5" per GFS and GEFS ensemble mean.
Will continue to monitor that potential, but have increased PoPs to
70-80% early Saturday for most of our forecast area. Temperatures
should remain warm through Saturday, and then gradually cooling
toward seasonable levels for Sunday into Monday. May see sufficient
low-level CAA and moist WSW from the eastern Great lakes to generate
some lake effect rain/snow showers into northern NY Sunday into
Sunday night. Some light snow accumulation may be possible across
the Northern Adirondacks. Highs on Sunday and Monday generally in
the upper 30s to lower 40s in valley locations.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Quiet, but breezy conditions are expected
across the terminals of northern New York and Vermont today.
South winds around 4 to 9 knots, which are closer to 10 to 12 at
KMSS, will increase towards 10 to 15 knots sustained with gusts
up to 25 knots and become more west to northwest over the 
course of the day. Skies mainly clear, with FEW to SCT cloud
cover generally at or above 7000 ft agl that will move in from 
the north and gradually lower towards 4000 ft agl between about 
18z and 04z Tuesday. Overnight, wind speeds remain brisk, but 
should decrease towards about 6 to 11 knots.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Veterans Day: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Haynes

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