Expires:201606072000;;087039
FPUS51 KBTV 070719
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
317 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016


VTZ006-072000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
317 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016

.TODAY...SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND
10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. CLOUDY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 50. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF
RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND
50. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 40S. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S. 

$$


Expires:201606071100;;094478
ASUS41 KBTV 071030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-071100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  62  52  69 SW9       29.52R                  
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  53  50  89 CALM      29.57S                  
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  52  50  93 CALM      29.53S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     52  47  83 MISG      29.53F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   LGT RAIN  50  49  94 CALM      29.56F                  
RUTLAND*       LGT RAIN  62  53  72 S8        29.56S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    52  50  93 CALM      29.58S                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    60  52  74 S7        29.51R                  
NEWPORT*       LGT RAIN  57  49  77 SW5       29.54R                  
BENNINGTON     LGT RAIN  58  56  93 CALM      29.57F                  
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     50 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     52 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     52 N/A N/A W15         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     61  55  82 S8          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     61  55  82 W5          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     61  55  82 SW13        N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;087954
FXUS61 KBTV 070754
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
354 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected today as a
surface cold front moves across the North Country. A few of the
stronger storms will be capable of producing small hail and brief
localized gusty winds...especially across Central and Eastern
Vermont. Much cooler air arrives tonight on brisk northwest winds.
Additional terrain focused rain showers are possible on
Wednesday into Thursday with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below
normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 325 AM EDT Tuesday...forecast focus will be thunderstorm
potential this afternoon and associated impacts.

water vapor shows potent 5h vort and ribbon of enhanced mid level
moisture moving quickly from western ny toward central new
england...with additional energy in digging trof over the great
lakes. lead short wave with period of rain showers this morning
will exit our region by 15z...with rainfall amounts generally <
0.10 with this feature.

meanwhile additional energy and strong height falls occur with
developing trof and surface cold front this afternoon. the
difficult question to answer is how much clearing develops to
allow for surface heating and will dry air aloft mix to the
surface resulting in lower surface dewpoints and less instability.
based on model blend between the gfs/nam and local wrf's thinking
surface based cape values will range between 400 and 800 j/kg with
pockets of higher values in the ct river valley. meanwhile...a
belt of stronger 700mb to 500mb winds of 40 to 50 knots will be
located across central vt into central nh this
afternoon...creating 0 to 6 km shear values between 35 and 45
knots. the best combination of instability and shear still looks
to be focused over our central/eastern vt section...with soundings
supporting mainly a unidirectional winds profile. thinking a few
stronger convective elements will be capable of small hail and
gusty winds...with maybe a few bowing line segments developing
toward the ct river valley. 

like the general idea by the local 4km wrf with storms initially
developing over the higher terrain of the eastern dacks between
noon and 2 pm...then quickly expanding in areal coverage into most
of vt between 2pm and 5pm...as additional showers approach the
saint lawrence valley by late afternoon. thinking overall
development of convection is too robust given amount of
instability and available 700 to 500mb moisture...but general idea
of scattered storms looks reasonable. the overall areal coverage
and intensity of convection will quickly decrease or shift east of
our region by 00z...with only leftover showers in the terrain
expected by 06z. strong pres gradient and plenty of clouds
associated with cold air advection and upslope flow will prevent
fog development tonight. thinking highs generally in the 70s today
with near 80f at vsf...with lows mainly in the upper 30s mountains
to lower 50s warmer valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 353 AM EDT Tuesday...Overall idea from previous forecast
thinking remains in place for the short term period as the North
Country's weather will be largely dominated by upper level low
pressure over southern Quebec on Wednesday, slowly shifting to
east of Nova Scotia by Thursday's end. A vigorous shortwave trough
digs south of the area through western New York into the Mohawk
Valley Wednesday morning with some low chance pops across our
southern tier zones through mid-day, but chances for precip
quickly ramp up to likely towards the late afternoon to evening
hours as the mid/upper level flow shifts to the northwest as the
vort moves over the coastal waters of southern New England. Closed
700mb circulation to our north/northeast will aid in wrap-around
moisture advection into the region and this along with strong low
level cold air advection will support favorable conditions for
upslope precipitation to develop across the northern dacks and
central/northern greens by days end Wednesday, continuing through
the overnight hours and into early portions of Thursday. 850mb
temps 2-3 standard deviations below normal dropping to near 0C
Wednesday night will even support some wet snow accumulations atop
the highest peaks, while elevations below will just see a cold
rain. Temps through the period trend below normal, with highs
Wed/Thu mainly in the 50s to a few spot 60s across the upper
valley, and lows chilly in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 353 AM EDT Tuesday...Aforementioned upper trough continues
to provide unsettled conditions to the area through the end of the
work week with several more weak pieces of shortwave energy
continue the threat for showers. Overall deep layer moisture does
begin to thin through time as an upper ridge over the central
CONUS tries to shift eastward, but never really gets here as
another upper trough digs south from James Bay towards the
Northeast on Saturday. Medium range models continue to be in
disagreement with the overall evolution and track of this feature,
with the GFS developing a deep closed circulation near the
benchmark by Sunday mid-day while the ECMWF continues to favor a
more northerly track north of the intl border. Each would offer
continued chances for showers though less-so with the Euro
solution with the best upper dynamics and moisture remaining north
of the forecast area. GFS would indicate another possible Sunday
washout, which in this forecaster's opinion we could do without.
With so much uncertainty, have gone with a blended approach in
regards to pops offering high chances for showers along with
temperatures moderating back towards seasonal normals though still
slightly below.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 06z Wednesday....a band of rain showers with a few
embedded rumbles of thunder across western ny will impact our taf
sites between 09z-13z this morning. expect a brief 1 to 2 hour
window of rain with a period of mvfr vis/cigs possible with this
feature. additional showers with scattered thunderstorms will
redevelop this afternoon with brief periods of mvfr/ifr possible
in the heavier convective elements...along with localized gusty
winds. as surface cold front moves across our taf sites by this
afternoon look for winds to become northwest with some mvfr cigs
developing at slk after 00z. 

06Z Wednesday through saturday...additional mainly terrain driven
showers are possible weds night into thursday with plenty of
clouds. based on upslope flow and wrap around moisture expect
periods of mvfr cigs likely through thursday...especially slk/mpv.
a slow improving trend is expected late thursday into
friday...before next system arrives over the weekend with
additional showers and periods of mvfr.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Taber

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