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March 2016, Week 3

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Subject:
From:
"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Mon, 21 Mar 2016 06:50:02 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
Parts/Attachments:
text/plain (233 lines)
Expires:201603212000;;379350
FPUS51 KBTV 210717
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
315 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016


VTZ006-212000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
315 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 17. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW LIKELY OR A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT
SNOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.THURSDAY...RAIN...FREEZING RAIN LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF SLEET.
LITTLE OR NO SLEET ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. 

$$


Expires:201603211100;;386890
ASUS41 KBTV 211030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-211100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    26  17  68 CALM      29.81F                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    29  15  56 CALM      29.80F                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    25  18  74 N3        29.79F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     31  16  54 MISG      29.78S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    27  16  63 CALM      29.79R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    28  21  74 N3        29.79F                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    30  16  55 SE5       29.78F WCI  25          
SPRINGFIELD    FLURRIES  29  21  72 CALM      29.82F                  
HIGHGATE*      MOCLDY    21  19  91 CALM      29.83R                  
NEWPORT*         N/A    N/A N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    29  24  82 E3        29.78F                  
SUTTON*          N/A     25 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     18 N/A N/A NW10        N/A  WCI   6          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     30  23  74 NW5         N/A  WCI  25          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     32  23  69 NW6         N/A  WCI  26          

$$


Expires:No;;381441
FXUS61 KBTV 210813
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
413 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MID WEEK AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY, THOUGH STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THE COLDER TEMPERATURES
TO TREND MILDER BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...WEATHER WILL BE QUIET TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH ONLY A CHANCE FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF CROSSES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY NEAR TO
SEASONAL NORMALS...GENERALLY MID 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MAX TEMPS
AND TEENS WITH LOWER 20S OVERNIGHT FOR MIN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT MONDAY...AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE TRENDING MORE UNSETTLED
THROUGH TIME. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO A FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION BY TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
QUITE CONSISTENT IN REGARD TO TIMING, TRACK AND MEAN QPF FOR THIS
FEATURE AND HAVE LARGELY KEPT WITH PRIOR THINKING SHOWING
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS/RAINS ARRIVING BY THE EVENING HOURS AND
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AS WET BULB/PBL COOLING
PROCESSES STRENGTHEN. PRECIPITATION THEN QUICKLY TAPERS OFF BY
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALL AND ALL MAINLY
LIGHT QPF EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME SHADOWING EFFECTS
EXPECTED IN THE CHAMPLAIN/SOUTHERN VT VALLEYS OWING TO FAIRLY
ROBUST 925-850 MB WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 35 TO 50 KTS. USING
LOCALLY DEVELOPED STANDARDIZED CLIMO SLR RATES OFFERS LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SLV/NRN GREENS AND
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES OR SO IN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY NIGHT. LESS SNOWFALL EXPECTED IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY FROM BURLINGTON SOUTHWARD AND IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY
FROM WHITE RIVER SOUTH WHERE SOME AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 30S TO
AROUND 40 ON TUESDAY, THEN 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT MONDAY...AS DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT, AN
INCREASINGLY COMPLEX/DIFFICULT PATTERN THEN EVOLVES BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD THE POLAR FRONT DROPS SOUTH
INTO THE REGION, THEN RETREATS SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AS
LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES CREATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WINTRY/MIXED PRECIPITATION/RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION. WE'RE STILL DEALING WITH QUITE THE DISPARITY IN THE
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC
PLAYERS WITH THIS MORNING'S MODELS LARGELY HOLDING FIRM WITH THEIR
PRIOR SOLUTIONS. THE DIFFERENCES INVOLVE THE STRENGTH OF A
POTENTIAL BLOCKING POLAR HIGH OFF TO OUR IMMEDIATE NORTH AND THE
EXTENT TO WHICH IT EITHER 1) HOLDS FIRM, OR 2) GIVES WAY TO THE
ADVANCING LOW. QUITE IRONIC IN A COOL SEASON VIRTUALLY ABSENT OF
BLOCKING IT DECIDES TO APPEAR IN THE WANING DAYS OF MARCH. ANYHOW
THE EVOLUTION/INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SURFACE FRONT/HIGH/LOW
YIELDS LARGE DIFFERENCES IN BOTH TIMING/ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION
AND PBL THERMAL STRUCTURE WITH THE EURO/UKMET CAMP ON THE
COLDER/SLOWER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH
I'VE TRENDED SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE DURING THESE
PERIODS AND CONTINUING THE IDEA OF WIDESPREAD WINTRY MIXED
PRECIPITATION AFFECTING THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE A SLOW TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. TIME WILL TELL HOW IT ALL EVOLVES SO STAY TUNED.

BY NEXT WEEKEND LARGE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AS GUIDANCE OFFERS A
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FROM MAINLY DRY TO QUITE WET. THIS APPEARS
MAINLY DUE TO RIPPLING EFFECTS FROM THE TIMING DISPARITIES
ORIGINATING IN THE THU/FRI TIME RANGE DISCUSSED ABOVE. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP WITH PRIOR TRENDS OFFERING MAINLY DRY WEATHER SATURDAY/SUNDAY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST WPC DAY 5/6
OUTLOOK. THINGS COULD CHANGE THOUGH. I DO HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MILDER DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH DAILY MEANS AVERAGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE MARCH NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF LOCATIONS WITH
VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID-UPR LEVEL CLOUDS (9000FT AND HIGHER)
TONIGHT THRU MID-AFTERNOON MONDAY. MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS VCNTY SLK/MSS WITH INCREASING NW WINDS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. CARRIED JUST VCSH AT SLK AFTER 21Z MONDAY FOR NOW.
LIGHT N-NE WINDS OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT LOCALLY SE 5-10KTS AT RUT THRU
DAYBREAK. WINDS BECOMING NW MID-LATE MORNING MONDAY...SUSTAINED
10-12KTS WITH GUSTS 16-20KTS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

06Z TUE - 00Z WED...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH GUSTY WINDS ON
MONDAY. SOME MVFR SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS SUCH AS SLK AND MPV.

00Z WED ONWARD...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING 
MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...TRENDING TOWARD MAINLY RAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1006 PM SUNDAY...AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT MASSENA
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT/RICHARDS FIELD (KMSS) HAVE BEEN SPORADICALLY
TRANSMITTING OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO TELCO PROBLEMS. PERIODIC
OUTAGES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS TECHNICIANS WORK TO ADDRESS
THESE TELECOMMS ISSUES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...NEILES
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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