Expires:200305292000;;424818
FPUS51 KBTV 290732
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2003


VTZ003-004-006>008-010-292000-
CALEDONIA VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND VT...MONTPELIER VT...
NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT
330 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2003

.TODAY...SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. WEST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE LOWER
50S. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH 65 TO 70. WEST
WIND AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
.SATURDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH RAIN LIKELY BY LATE IN THE DAY.
HIGH AROUND 70. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOW NEAR 50. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 60S.
.MONDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 40S AND HIGH IN THE LOWER 60S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW NEAR 40 AND HIGH IN THE MID 60S.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID 40S AND HIGH IN THE UPPER
60S.

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 290759
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
400 AM AM EDT THU MAY 29 2003

NO CHANGES IN THE OVERALL WX PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MEAN RIDGE RMNS OUT WEST...WITH THE MEAN TROF IN EAST. RESULT WL BE A
CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WX.

CENTER OF CLOSED UPPER LOW HAS FINALLY MOVED EAST OF FA. IT IS NOW
LOCATED OVER WRN MAINE AND WL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO
MARITIMES. SHRTWVS/TROFS CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE LOW...AND
SHWR ACTIVITY WL INCREASE DURING TDY AS HEATING DESTABILIZES ATMOS.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY BY THIS PM...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF
TSRA...WHICH COULD LINGER INTO EVENING HRS. HIR POPS OVER NRN ZONES
TDY...WITH MORE ENHANCED ACTIVITY OVER THE HIR TRRN.

AS CLOSED LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY TONITE...AND ATMOS STABILIZES WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT SHWRS TO DIMINISH WITH P/C SKIES
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A CHC OF SHWRS AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SHRTWV
MOVES THRU RGN DURING LATER AM THRU MID PM. GREATEST CHC OF SHWRS WL
BE ACRS NRN VT.

OUR WINDOW WITHOUT ANY MENTION OF PCPN OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SEEMS
TO BE SHRINKING. WITH PASSAGE OF SHRTWV LATER FRI...EXPECT SOME
DRYING FRI NITE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGETS HOWEVER THAT THE WX PICTURE
WL DETERIORATE RATHER QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. VIGOROUS SHRTWV WL DIVE SEWRD ACRS CNTRL GRTLKS
FRI NITE INTO SAT...RESULTING IN UPR TROF TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT
ACRS THE NORTHEAST. GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE PRIOR TO THE TROF
DVLPG INTO ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW. THE WHOLE ULVL SYSTEM WL SWING SLOWLY
ACRS THE NORTHEAST LATER SAT THRU SUN. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. BEST ESTIMATE ATTM WOULD BE FOR A
TRACK ACRS SRN TIER OF NYS LATE SAT INTO CNTRL NEW ENG SUNDAY. IT ALL
ADDS UP TO A RATHER WET WEEKEND...WITH RAIN LIKELY TO BEGIN IN MOST
AREAS SAT PM...AND CONTINUING ON AND OFF THRU SUNDAY WITH HEAVY PCPN
TOTALS PSBL.

MON THRU WED: LINGERING SHWRS MONDAY. LATEST MID RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WE MAY NOT SQUEEZE OUT BOTH TUE AND WED WITHOUT ANY SHWRS...
BUT HAVE NOT MADE CHANGES ATTM.

.BTV...NONE.

RJS





FXUS61 KBTV 290109
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
915 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2003

CRNT: RDR/IR SAT/WTR VPR ALL TELL THE STORY...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
CENTERED ACRS CHMPL VLY. MAIN S/W AXIS ROTATING S ACRS SE NY/NE
PA/SNE AND THATS WHERE MUCH OF THE "MAIN" CONVECTION IS LOCATED.
SOME MINOR VORTS ROTATING ARD UPR LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR ACTVTY IN
QUEBEC THAT MAY SURVIVE THE TREK INTO FA OVRNGT. MSTLY CLDY/CLDY
SKIES WITH SOME BINOVC...CALM/LGT WND SHLD ALLOW FOR PTCHY FOG AND
WL INTRODUCE INTO FCST.

OTHERWISE...JUST SOME TIMING ISSUES.

WORKS AVBL...ZONES AVBL SHORTLY.

SLW


...PRVS DISC...
VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSD LOW OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME AND ONLY DRIFTING
SLOWLY NEWRD INTO THURSDAY.  LTL IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED VERTICAL
MOTION OR CONVERGENCE...BUT DIRUNAL INSTABILITY SEEMS TO BE
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VLYS AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN.  EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THEN
DIMINISH A BIT FRIDAY AS H5 TEMPS MODERATE.  FINAL S/WV IN THIS TROF
TO PASS MIDDAY FRIDAY AND MAY HELP TO KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACTIVE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

OUR BIG BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE
SHORT LIVED BUT ENJOYED.  EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDER
TEMPS AS A RESULT OF MORE SUN AND ADVECTION OF WARMER H8 TEMPS.

THEN...BY SATURDAY NGT ALL MODELS STILL POINTING TO H5 CLOSING AND
STRONG BAROCLINIC SFC DVLPMT IN THE TROF MOVING THRU THE SRN LAKES.
SYSTEM SHOULD GO NEGATIVE TILT WITH DPNG SFC LOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT DIRECTLY OVER NEW ENGLAND.  MOVED UP TO LIKELY POPS SAT NIGHT
THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.  RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AS A RESULT OF UPR DVGC
AND PROLONGED MID LVL CNVGC ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE H7 LOW...SIMILAR
TO THE PATTERN EXPERIENCED DURING SOME OF OUR BIGGEST NOR-EASTERS.
WHILE SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED...IT WILL BECOME UNSEASONABLY COLD SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH ONLY UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGH TEMPS
MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRYING SHOULD RETURN WITH TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO RETURN TO NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

.BTV...NONE.

BELL









FXUS61 KBTV 282032
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
425 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2003

VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSD LOW OVERHEAD AT THIS TIME AND ONLY DRIFTING
SLOWLY NEWRD INTO THURSDAY.  LTL IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED VERTICAL
MOTION OR CONVERGENCE...BUT DIRUNAL INSTABILITY SEEMS TO BE
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VLYS AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN.  EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THEN
DIMINISH A BIT FRIDAY AS H5 TEMPS MODERATE.  FINAL S/WV IN THIS TROF
TO PASS MIDDAY FRIDAY AND MAY HELP TO KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACTIVE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

OUR BIG BREAK IN THE WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE
SHORT LIVED BUT ENJOYED.  EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDER
TEMPS AS A RESULT OF MORE SUN AND ADVECTION OF WARMER H8 TEMPS.

THEN...BY SATURDAY NGT ALL MODELS STILL POINTING TO H5 CLOSING AND
STRONG BAROCLINIC SFC DVLPMT IN THE TROF MOVING THRU THE SRN LAKES.
SYSTEM SHOULD GO NEGATIVE TILT WITH DPNG SFC LOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT DIRECTLY OVER NEW ENGLAND.  MOVED UP TO LIKELY POPS SAT NIGHT
THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.  RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AS A RESULT OF UPR DVGC
AND PROLONGED MID LVL CNVGC ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE H7 LOW...SIMILAR
TO THE PATTERN EXPERIENCED DURING SOME OF OUR BIGGEST NOR-EASTERS.
WHILE SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED...IT WILL BECOME UNSEASONABLY COLD SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH ONLY UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGH TEMPS
MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRYING SHOULD RETURN WITH TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO RETURN TO NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

.BTV...NONE.

BELL






   This  data  is  from  the  [3]IWIN  (Interactive  Weather  Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

471
ASUS51 KBTV 291105
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
700 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2003

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

VTZ001>014-291200-
_____VERMONT_____

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   55  54  96 S6        29.54R
MONTPELIER     FOG       51  51 100 CALM      29.57S VSB 3/4
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  52  52 100 CALM      29.54S FOG
ST. JOHNSBURY    N/A     53  52  96 CALM      29.51S
RUTLAND        CLOUDY    54  52  94 SW5       29.57R
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    51  51 100 CALM      29.56S
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    56  52  86 SW5       29.59S
$$

______KEY______
VSB  - VISIBILITY IN MILES
WCI  - WIND CHILL INDEX
HX   - HEAT INDEX



     Our Local Student forecasts will return after the academic break.
                                 Thank You.

       The forecast below is provided by the National Weather Service
     _________________________________________________________________

 CALEDONIA VT-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE VT-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-WASHINGTON VT-
 INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND VT...MONTPELIER VT...
 NEWPORT VT...RANDOLPH VT...ST. JOHNSBURY VT...STOWE VT
 330 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2003

 .TODAY...SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH IN THE
 MID TO UPPER 60S. WEST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
 .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW IN THE LOWER
 50S. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
 .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH 65 TO 70. WEST
 WIND AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
 .FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
 .SATURDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH RAIN LIKELY BY LATE IN THE DAY.
 HIGH AROUND 70. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
 .SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOW NEAR 50. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.
 .SUNDAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGH IN THE LOWER 60S.
 .MONDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE PARTLY
 CLOUDY. LOW IN THE LOWER 40S AND HIGH IN THE LOWER 60S.
 .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW NEAR 40 AND HIGH IN THE MID 60S.
 .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW IN THE MID 40S AND HIGH IN THE UPPER
 60S.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont.

To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html