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November 2022, Week 1

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Subject:
From:
Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Thu, 3 Nov 2022 06:50:04 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
Parts/Attachments:
text/plain (237 lines)
Expires:202211031500;;533884
FPUS51 KBTV 030722
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
318 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2022


VTZ018-031500-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
318 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2022

.TODAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. South winds around
10 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 40s. South winds around 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. Southwest winds around
10 mph. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. Southwest
winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. South winds
10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 60s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...Clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs
in the upper 40s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower
30s. Highs around 50. 

$$


Expires:202211031100;;542979
ASUS41 KBTV 031030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU NOV 03 2022

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-031100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLEAR     36  31  82 CALM      30.37R                  
MONTPELIER     CLEAR     30  25  81 CALM      30.42R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR     25  22  88 CALM      30.40R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     28  25  88 MISG      30.41R                  
LYNDONVILLE*     N/A     28  26  94 CALM      30.40S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      32  31  96 CALM      30.37S                  
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     37  25  61 SE13      30.39R WCI  29          
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR     30  28  92 CALM      30.43R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      35  32  88 SE5       30.36S WCI  31          
NEWPORT*       FAIR      29  27  92 SW7       30.38F WCI  22          
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     32  32 100 CALM      30.38R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     21 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     25 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     45 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     45  34  65 E7          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     45  37  76 S10         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     43  37  81 S6          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;535680
FXUS61 KBTV 030759
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
359 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface and upper level ridging over the region will bring dry 
weather and warming temperatures through the end of the week. 
Temperatures will remain well above normal, with highs in the 
70s expected by Saturday. The next chance for precipitation in 
our area will come Saturday night into Sunday with a frontal 
passage.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...Plentiful sunshine is expected 
today with temperatures warming into the 60s areawide by this 
afternoon, over ten degrees above seasonal normals for this 
date. Ridge of surface high pressure will slide off to our east,
which means southerly return flow for our region. Minimum 
temperatures tonight will be quite warm, only dipping into the 
40s across most of our area, some upper 30s possible in the 
Northeast Kingdom where skies will be clear and that area is a 
bit more protected from the south southwesterly winds. Flow will
continue overnight and increase on Friday as we see an 
increased pressure gradient across our region. Temperatures will
also warm another three to five degrees from today's highs. 
Friday highs will range from the mid 60s to near 70 degrees. 
Winds on Friday will generally be 10-15 mph but locally south 
15-20 mph in the Champlain valley with channeled flow, and some 
gusts could reach 30 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 357 AM EDT Thursday...Little change in model guidance for
this period as we continue to see further warming as heights 
rise in response to the trough amplifying over the Midwest and 
the ridge over the western Atlantic holding strong. Winds will 
be breezy out of the south Friday night and during the day, 
which will help produce the warmest conditions in the corridor 
near and north of US Route 11 in northern New York due to 
downsloping off the northern Adirondacks. These areas are 
expected to see highs in the mid 70s, with low 70s favored in 
many other valley locations across northern New York and 
Vermont. These temperatures will likely set daily records at 
Plattsburgh and Burlington, among other sites; see climate 
section for details. The moist advection pattern favors some 
cloud cover/increasing clouds along with dew points steadily 
rising well into the 50s during the day. However, precipitation 
chances are nil during this period, with plenty of dry air aloft
and lack of instability.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 357 AM EDT Thursday...We continue to expect showers at 
some point Saturday night through Sunday, with shower chances 
generally increasing towards Sunday morning and gradually 
pushing eastward. Higher confidence in showers, which will be 
capable of briefly heavy rain, exists in our western areas, 
where frontal boundary will have better upper level support. 
Noted heights actually steady or rise slightly through the day 
on Sunday as the front moves through, so poor lapse rates will 
tend to help weaken shower activity despite an impressive plume 
of moisture along the boundary featuring anomalously high 
precipitable water. Continue to show precipitation chances 
dwindle across most of Vermont during the day, with southeastern
areas possibly seeing little or no rain. Winds will be gusty 
out ahead of the front, but nothing looking like to the level of
a wind advisory aside from possibly a short period over Lake 
Champlain.

As flow becomes more westerly aloft and at the surface on 
Monday, we should see a particularly deep boundary layer. With a
warm air mass still present, temperatures still look well above
normal in the mid and upper 60s over much of Vermont, or a 
little cooler in most of northern New York. With most of the 
moisture that was present on Sunday pushed out to our south and 
east, the arrival of a surface cold front from the northwest 
will come without precipitation but will be noticeable as much 
cooler air settles in Monday night on north winds. Temperatures 
have come down a bit with the latest guidance with highs in the 
upper 40s to mid 50s on Tuesday, and may need to go further on 
Tuesday and Wednesday if trends continue. This does look like a 
blip in an otherwise warm pattern, however, as the cool air 
looks to retreat quickly.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions to prevail through the 
entire period, with the only exception to be some local 
MVFR/potential IFR in valley fog 09z-13z Thursday at MSS. 
Otherwise, mainly clear skies expected which will persist 
through Thursday. Light and variable winds will become light out
of the south during the day.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Some record high maximum and minimum temperatures are likely 
Friday through Sunday, particularly on Saturday. 

Below are the standing records: 

Max Temp Records 
Date    KBTV     KMPV     K1V4     KMSS     KPBG     KSLK 
11-04  73|1982  71|1982  63|2008  71|1961  72|1990  74|1944 
11-05  72|1938  73|2015  71|2015  73|2015  68|1948  74|1944 
11-06  75|1948  72|1978  70|2020  78|1948  73|2015  74|1945      

High Min Temp Records 
Date	KBTV     KMPV     K1V4     KMSS     KPBG     KSLK     
11-04  53|1994  54|1982  40|2005  51|1994  56|1977  55|1982 
11-05  57|2015  53|1994  44|2014  46|1994  49|1975  50|1994 
11-06  58|2015  57|1948  48|2015  54|2020  51|1948  48|2015

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Neiles
CLIMATE...Kutikoff

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