Expires:202301291800;;434568
FPUS51 KBTV 291030
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
527 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2023
VTZ018-291800-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
527 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2023
.TODAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain or a slight chance of
snow this morning, then rain or snow likely this afternoon.
Little or no snow accumulation. Highs in the upper 30s. South
winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely or a chance of rain
until midnight, then snow showers likely after midnight. Snow
accumulation up to 1 inch. Lows around 16. Southwest winds 15 to
20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph, becoming northwest around 10 mph
after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a
chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Little or no snow
accumulation. Highs in the upper 20s. Light and variable winds.
Chance of snow 40 percent.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Light snow accumulation possible. Lows around 15. West winds
around 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 16. Northwest winds around
10 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around zero.
Highs around 20.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows around 10 above.
.THURSDAY...Cloudy. Highs in the lower 20s.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around zero.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs around 10 above.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Much colder with lows 10 below to
15 below zero.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs zero to 5 above zero.
$$
Expires:202301291200;;437303
ASUS41 KBTV 291130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2023
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-291200-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 28 22 78 CALM 30.25F
MONTPELIER MOCLDY 22 15 75 CALM 30.26F
MORRISVILLE MOCLDY 20 16 84 CALM 30.24F
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 19 16 88 MISG 30.25F
LYNDONVILLE* N/A 20 18 91 CALM 30.25S
MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 26 23 86 CALM 30.24R
RUTLAND* PTCLDY 24 20 84 VRB5 30.24F WCI 18
SPRINGFIELD MOCLDY 21 18 88 CALM 30.30F
HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 23 18 81 CALM 30.27R
NEWPORT* FAIR 18 14 84 N5 30.25S WCI 11
BENNINGTON PTCLDY 24 17 74 CALM 30.23F
ISLAND POND* N/A 16 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 16 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 16 N/A N/A N1 N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 19 N/A N/A CALM N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 32 25 74 E5 N/A WCI 27
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 30 28 93 S5 N/A WCI 25
$$
Expires:No;;437302
FXUS61 KBTV 291129
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
629 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A sharp boundary draped across the northern tier of our region will
act as a focus for low pressure to track and produce occasional rain
and snow today into this evening. The highest snowfall accumulations
of 2 to 6 inches will be near the International Border, while very
little snow is anticipated over central and southern Vermont today.
A wide range in temperatures are expected from near 20 degrees along
the border to near 40 degrees across parts of the southern Champlain
Valley and lower Connecticut River Valley. Cooler temperatures
arrive tonight with any lingering rain changing to scattered snow
showers.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 617 AM EST Sunday...Winter weather advisory continues until 1
AM Monday for St Lawrence and Franklin Counties for 2 to 6 inches of
snow.
After reviewing the 06z guidance have bumped temps up 1 to 3
degrees here in the CPV, resulting in more rain showers this
aftn acrs this region. In addition, some additional tweaks were
made to snow amounts and pops to capture latest trends a bit
better based on radar trends. Radar/obs show intervals of light
snow associated with warm front lifting acrs northern NY, which
wl angle into northern VT thru this morning with occasional
light snow. A dusting to maybe an inch associated with this
feature, best potential for accumulations wl be SLV and portions
of northern NY. Otherwise, additional precip wl develop btwn
14z-16z and spread east into VT during the aftn hours. All
covered well in fcst for now. Expect a sharp drop in temps this
evening as sfc cold frnt drops south and rain changes back to
snow btwn 22z-02z and winds shift to the north/northwest.
Previous discussion below:
The near term challenge is position/movement of sharpening llvl
thermal boundary and impacts on precip/snowfall acrs our fa. Latest
00z and 06z trends have been for warmer profiles acrs most of our
central/southern cwa, while north/northeast winds keep areas near
the International Border on the colder side.
Water vapor indicates fast west/southwest flow aloft with broad mid
lvl moisture advection streaming from the Ohio Valley into the ne
CONUS, ahead of elongated 700-500mb s/w energy acrs the MS Valley.
Sfc analysis places llvl trrn influenced cold frnt draped acrs our
northern tier/near the International Border where MSS is 18F, while
BTV is holding near freezing. Its should be noted north of Montreal
under sfc high pres temps are -10F to -25F this morning, with a
piece of this arctic airmass approaching our region for midweek.
Meanwhile, this llvl thermal gradient wl sharpen today as
north/northeast winds prevail near the border, while strengthening
925mb to 850mb jet of 35 to 45 knots from the south/southwest advect
warmer air aloft into our region. Progged 850mb temps warm btwn -1C
and -3C, while 925mb temps approach -1C to +1C acrs most of
central/southern VT, but hold btwn -5C and -10C over the northern
SLV, as cold ne winds prevails. Weak 1016mb sfc low pres acrs
northern IN wl track along this trrn influenced and tightening llvl
thermal boundary this aftn, resulting in several periods of
occasional precip. First batch occurs this morning associated with
modest 7h fgen forcing and associated mid lvl moisture lifting from
sw to ne acrs our northern NY into northern VT. Developing downslope
southwest winds, wl produce our typical shadowing here in the CPV,
with just light/minor snow expected. Highest pops wl be northern NY
into mtns of northern VT this morning. Meanwhile, as 700-500mb s/w
energy over the MS Valley races toward our cwa, expect areal
coverage of precip to increase again toward 16z and spread into most
of northern NY and central/northern VT thru the aftn hours.
Unfortunately, bl temps acrs most of the central/southern CPV and
most of central/southern VT wl be above 32F, resulting in a cold
rain mixed with wet snow, while best potential for accumulating snow
wl be from the northern Dacks/SLV into the northern Greens into the
NEK of VT. As sfc low pres tracks to our northeast, winds quickly
shift to the north/northwest and a sharp cold frnt surges down the
CPV btwn 22z-02z this evening. Given northerly flow and rapidly
falling temps below freezing, would expect a period of accumulating
snowfall and poor travel conditions this evening. Have tried to
highlight this potential with likely/cat pops and a quick inch or
two of snow possible for central/northern CPV into parts of central
VT. Total snowfall ranges from 2 to 6 inches northern NY/SLV near
the International Border to 1 to 5 inches acrs parts of
central/northern VT with highest amounts acrs the northern Greens
near the border, with <1.0 southern sections. Expect a very sharp
contrast in temps from near 20F northern SLV/MSS to lower 40s near
VSF/Lower CT River Valley today for highs. Lows tonight wl be driven
how far south shallow llvl caa develops, but have kept close to NBM
which supports lows ranging from single digits to mid 20s.
On Monday, boundary continues to be draped acrs our cwa with temps
ranging from the upper teens near the border to mid 30s near VSF.
Additional s/w energy and better mid lvl moisture arrive toward 18z,
so have expanded pops into the high chc range for late aftn/evening.
If trends continue some low likely maybe needed for additional light
snow shower activity.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 404 AM EST Sunday...Scattered snow showers should develop ahead
of a polar cold front, following any lingering widespread
precipitation Monday evening. Snow amounts will be limited by
duration of precipitation along with a shallow cloud depth,
although the temperatures of this cloud layer are supportive of
snow growth. Snow accumulations of up to an inch are mainly
shown in higher terrain, with Froude numbers in the 0.5 to 1
range during this period suggesting western slopes should do
well to maximize snow out of limited moisture.
The front will usher in very dry air, with skies clearing
potentially by daybreak Tuesday in western portions of northern
New York and trending partly cloudy areawide. It will also
provide below normal temperatures aloft, and with daytime
heating, some instability snow showers may develop. As such,
there are a lot of low chance (15-24%) snow showers lingering
through the midday hours before high pressure noses more over
the region. While a stronger pressure gradient will be
established in eastern New England, enough northwesterly flow
and deep mixing due to the low level dry air will make for a
breezy day with some gusts to around 20 MPH being common before
easing off in the afternoon. The aforementioned high pressure
will support a very cold night, with temperatures Tuesday night
expected to be near or below zero areawide.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 404 AM EST Sunday...Quiet conditions and seasonably cold
weather is expected Wednesday through Thursday with a broad surface
ridge in control. Some lake effect snow downwind of Lake Ontario is
expected, which may briefly push into St. Lawrence County as
westerly flow becomes southwesterly late Wednesday. A weak upper
level wave passing mainly to our north may also bring snow showers
on Thursday, especially towards the International Border. However,
at this time precipitation chances appear low (mainly 15 to 30%)
with little significant precipitation.
The main story in this period will be bitterly, and dangerously,
cold temperatures and wind chills for the late week period. The
latest GEFS shows an ensemble mean 2 meter temperatures Saturday
morning bottoming out in the 15 to 25 below zero range, or greater
than 30 degrees below normal, when the heart of the Arctic outbreak
is anticipated. A similar 20 to 25 below zero range is shown in the
EPS mean, while the CMC mean is slightly "warmer" at mainly 10 to 15
below zero. This suggests high confidence of a significant cold
wave. The one saving grace will be its short length, as the extreme
cold begins late Friday, peaks Saturday morning, and will ease on
Sunday as the piece of Arctic air departs.
The event will be unleashed by an Arctic cold front pushing through
northern New York and Vermont Thursday night. It will be associated
with a polar vortex rapidly pushing southeastward towards northern
New England. Per regional collaboration, precipitation chances were
increased from the NBM during this period with widespread snow
showers favored associated with the front. In the coming days as we
get into the range of mesoscale model guidance, we may highlight
potentially organized snow squalls given how potent/sharp the low
level boundary is depicted in global model guidance at this time.
Following the frontal passage, an extended period of cold air
advection will occur on Friday before the surface high pressure area
builds in. High temperatures, if timing of the front remains on
track, will occur early in the day with temperatures generally in
the 5 to 15 degree range, and with brisk northwest winds, wind
chills are currently forecast to be below zero during the day. Noted
that ensemble clusters are relatively disparate on temperatures
during this period, as some guidance is not quite as quick to bring
the bitterly cold air southward. Better agreement occurs Friday
night into Saturday; as strong high pressure builds in from Ontario,
extremely cold air will settle in and winds will tend to relax. As
skies trend clear, calming winds would only help temperatures
plummet to the aforementioned potential values 20 to 25 degrees
below zero, or near record daily lows. Therefore, while current
forecast lows for Saturday morning in the 10 to 20 degree below zero
range for most locations looks reasonable, temperatures Friday night
into Saturday could actually be even colder than the already frigid
values in the forecast. Similarly, with weak mixing and extreme low
temperatures in the morning, highs on Saturday may trend colder than
what is currently being offered. Noted that aside from the deep
freeze, light northerly flow and large air to water instability
over Lake Champlain should result in some lake-effect clouds
and diamond dust, while sunny skies exist elsewhere. Despite the
sunshine, would not be surprised if most spots fail to reach
above zero. However, given this is still almost a week out and
the NBM high temperatures on Saturday is already lower than the
NBM 50th percentile, it looks sufficiently cold. Most
importantly, the combination of these temperatures and winds
currently forecast do support the message of wind chill advisory
and warning level potential.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...TAFs will be challenging today with periods
of precip anticipated and varying vis/cigs expected associated
with different ptype and intensity. Highest confidence of mainly
IFR/LIFR for the next 6 to 12 hours wl be at MSS with light to
occasional moderate snow expected and vis ranging between 1/2sm
and 2sm most of the day with northeast winds 5 to 15 knots.
Expect intervals of IFR vis in light snow at SLK this morning
and again to develop toward 18z this aftn, with a similar type
scenario at EFK. Elsewhere, at PBG/BTV/RUT and MPV expect mostly
VFR to start but cigs trending toward MVFR with a period of IFR
vis possible in a mix of snow/rain btwn 16z-22z today. A sharp
cold front with associated wind shift to the north/northwest
occurs btwn 22z-02z this evening, expect cigs to quickly become
IFR with rain changing to snow and vis btwn 1-3sm for several
hours this evening. Vis improve aft 06z with a mix of IFR/MVFR
cigs expected thru Monday morning.
Outlook...
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
Observations had returned overnight at MSS, but have become
intermittent again this morning, as comms issues continue.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ026-027-
029-030-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Taber
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV
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