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Expires:200405282254;;413439
FPUS51 KBTV 280820
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 AM EDT FRI MAY 28 2004
VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>018-282254-
CALEDONIA-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN FRANKLIN-ESSEX-
LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRISTOL...ISLAND POND...MONTPELIER...
NEWPORT...RANDOLPH...RICHFORD...ST. JOHNSBURY...STOWE...UNDERHILL
420 AM EDT FRI MAY 28 2004
.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15
MPH...BECOMING WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15
MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 15
TO 20 MPH.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
.MEMORIAL DAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
$$
REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see
[2]additional information here
_________________________________________________________________
FXUS61 KBTV 280842
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
441 AM EDT FRI MAY 28 2004
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NY. THESE SHOWERS HAVE
HELPED TO INCREASE PRECIPITABLE MOISTURE VALUES/ SURFACE DEWPTS. GPS
IPW READING ACROSS THE AREA RANGED FROM 0.90" EAST TO 1.40" SOUTH
AND WEST..A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MODELS INDICATED. DEW PTS UP THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING
AFTERNOON THUNDER THREAT...WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP BY MIDDAY..MAINLY FROM CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EAST AND SOUTH. CAPE VALUES ANYWHERE FROM 200-1500 J/KG DEPENDING
ON MODEL. BULK SHEAR VALUES 0-3KM AND 0-6KM RUNNING 20KT AND 45KT.
WBZ 6-7K FT. ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH AND EAST OF BTV WITH HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT AND
WIND SECONDARY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW UNSTABLE WILL IT GET.
THE BTV WSETA MODEL SUGGESTS CELLS DEVELOPING BY 18Z ALONG THE FRONT
FROM TICONDEROGA NY TO BTV.
FRONT SHOULD PASS MSS BY 15Z...SLK-PLB 17Z BTV 18Z RUT-MPV 20Z VSF
22Z. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
AND FALLING TEMPERATURES/ DEWPT. IN FACT, NOT FAR TO OUR NORTH
TEMPERATURE ARE IN THE MID 30S WITH WINDS GUSTING FROM THE NORTH AT
20 KT. TONIGHT DESPITE TEMPERATURES DIPPING IN TO THE MID TO UPPER
30S IN THE MOUNTAINS THE WIND SHOULD KEEP FROST FROM FORMING.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
COOL TEMPERATURES. WITH 850 TEMPS BELOW ZERO...IT WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ABOVE 60 MOST PLACES EXCEPT THE NORMALLY WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS.
SAT NIGHT...WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SCATTERED FROST WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S MOST PLACES. A FEW ISOLD UPPER 20S ARE
POSSIBLE. A QUESTION ABOUT THE NE KINGDOM WHERE GRADIENT MAY BE
STILL SUFFUCIENT TO KEEP WINDS BLOWING LIGHTLY.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS 850 TEMPS GET ABOVE ZERO.
MEMORIAL DAY A QUESTION MARK WITH MODELS VARIABLE ON TIMING OF NEXT
SYSTEM WITH ETA FASTER THAN GFS BRINGING IN WARM FRONTAL PRECIP SO
HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE PRECIP ESP AFTERNOON HRS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SISSON
FXUS61 KBTV 280101
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
900 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2004
.UPDATE...
WAA SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS MOVG EWD THRU CNTRL NY. TSTMS CONFINED
TO CNTRL SRN TIER IN AREA OF BEST SFC INSTABY. XPCT AREA OF SHWRS
TO MOVE INTO AND DVLP ACRS FA OVRNGT AS ISEN LIFT AND LL MSTR CNVGC
INCRS AHD OF APCHG CDFNT ADVANCING EWD FM LKS. SFC INSTABY MINIMAL
TNGT BUT SOME ELEVATED INSTABY NOTED AFT 06Z SO CANT RULE OUT A
TSTM. GOING FCST/GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY CHG WAS TO ADD CHC
SHWRS BFR MIDNGT FOR W ZNS BASED ON CRNT RDR TRENDS.
&&
KJC
*** PREV DISCUSSION ***
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING FA WITH MSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
PM WITH TEMPS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING AND IMPACT OF
FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE ADVANCING EAST FROM GRTLKS TONITE AND
MOVE ACRS FA DURING FRI. THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS SOLUTION PREFERRED
DUE LAGGING UPPER TROF. EXPECT SHWRS TO OVERSPREAD FA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONITE. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF TSRA UPSTREAM ATTM...BUT KEPT IN MENTION
OF THUNDER FOR LATER TONITE DUE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
COLD/OCCLUDED FROPA EXPECTED ST LWR VLY ARND 12Z...BUT NOT UNTIL
18Z ERN VT. BETTER CHC TSRA DURING FRIDAY NEAR FROPA. BEST CHC WILL
BE FROM CHMPLN VLY EAST WHERE CAPES BRFLY RISE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG
AS TIMING OF FROPA MORE FAVORABLE. DIFFICULT MAX TEMP FCST FRI DUE
UNCERTAINTY OF AMT OF CLD COVER DURING PM. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO MAV
TEMP GUIDANCE.
COOLER AND DRIER FRI NITE ON NW BREEZES. EXPECT WNDS TO CONTINUE
THRU THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM REACHING
FREEZING. THE ONE AREA WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IS
ADRNDKS...WHERE WNDS MAY DECOUPLE.
SAT/SUN: DRY WX EXPECTED OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE
STATIONARY OVER MARITIMES SATURDAY...MOVES SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY. COOL
POOL ALOFT RMNS OVER RGN ON SATURDAY. EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLDNSS
ALG WITH TEMPS ONLY 55 TO 65 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE BLDS INTO FA
SUNDAY ALOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE. AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT (TEMPS APRCHG FRZG IN ADRNDKS)...TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE ON
SUNDAY.
.EXTENDED...(SUNDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY)...
SFC RIDGE OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST
W/ APPROACH OF LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION.
CURRENT MDL RUNS A BIT FASTER BRINGING THE ONSET OF PRECIP INTO SW/W
PORTIONS OF CWA LATE MONDAY VERSUS TUES MORNING. FRONT MVS INTO
WESTERN NY LATE AFTERNOON MON INTO THE EVENING HRS. WILL ADJUST
GRIDS TO SHOW A CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR WESTERN ZONES. WILL CUT TEMPS
DOWN A BIT FOR HIGHS WITH ALL CLD COVER W/ APPROACHING FRONT. MDLS
STILL KEEP BULK OF PRECIP ON TUES AND WILL LET CURRENT FORECAST OF
TRW STAND FOR NOW AND WILL TWEAK POPS A BIT. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF
WED/THURS AS LOW MVS INTO EASTERN CANADA AND WILL TAPER POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE REST OF EXTENDED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
RJS/JN
FXUS61 KBTV 272034
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
430 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2004
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING FA WITH MSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
PM WITH TEMPS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING AND IMPACT OF
FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE ADVANCING EAST FROM GRTLKS TONITE AND
MOVE ACRS FA DURING FRI. THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS SOLUTION PREFERRED
DUE LAGGING UPPER TROF. EXPECT SHWRS TO OVERSPREAD FA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONITE. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF TSRA UPSTREAM ATTM...BUT KEPT IN MENTION
OF THUNDER FOR LATER TONITE DUE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
COLD/OCCLUDED FROPA EXPECTED ST LWR VLY ARND 12Z...BUT NOT UNTIL
18Z ERN VT. BETTER CHC TSRA DURING FRIDAY NEAR FROPA. BEST CHC WILL
BE FROM CHMPLN VLY EAST WHERE CAPES BRFLY RISE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG
AS TIMING OF FROPA MORE FAVORABLE. DIFFICULT MAX TEMP FCST FRI DUE
UNCERTAINTY OF AMT OF CLD COVER DURING PM. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO MAV
TEMP GUIDANCE.
COOLER AND DRIER FRI NITE ON NW BREEZES. EXPECT WNDS TO CONTINUE
THRU THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM REACHING
FREEZING. THE ONE AREA WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IS
ADRNDKS...WHERE WNDS MAY DECOUPLE.
SAT/SUN: DRY WX EXPECTED OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE
STATIONARY OVER MARITIMES SATURDAY...MOVES SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY. COOL
POOL ALOFT RMNS OVER RGN ON SATURDAY. EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLDNSS
ALG WITH TEMPS ONLY 55 TO 65 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE BLDS INTO FA
SUNDAY ALOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE. AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT (TEMPS APRCHG FRZG IN ADRNDKS)...TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE ON
SUNDAY.
.EXTENDED...(SUNDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY)...
SFC RIDGE OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST
W/ APPROACH OF LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION.
CURRENT MDL RUNS A BIT FASTER BRINGING THE ONSET OF PRECIP INTO SW/W
PORTIONS OF CWA LATE MONDAY VERSUS TUES MORNING. FRONT MVS INTO
WESTERN NY LATE AFTERNOON MON INTO THE EVENING HRS. WILL ADJUST
GRIDS TO SHOW A CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR WESTERN ZONES. WILL CUT TEMPS
DOWN A BIT FOR HIGHS WITH ALL CLD COVER W/ APPROACHING FRONT. MDLS
STILL KEEP BULK OF PRECIP ON TUES AND WILL LET CURRENT FORECAST OF
TRW STAND FOR NOW AND WILL TWEAK POPS A BIT. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF
WED/THURS AS LOW MVS INTO EASTERN CANADA AND WILL TAPER POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE REST OF EXTENDED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
RJS/JN
This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
Network)
References
1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
2. http://weather.gov/inlr.html
3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html
027
ASUS51 KBTV 281010
SWRVT
VERMONT STATE WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI MAY 28 2004
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
VTZ001>014-281100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON MOCLDY 62 59 90 S10G16 29.53S FOG
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 57 56 96 CALM 29.62R
MORRISVILLE MOCLDY 57 57 100 VRB3 29.57F
ST. JOHNSBURY N/A 56 55 97 S3 29.59R
RUTLAND CLOUDY 61 57 88 E6 29.58F
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 58 58 100 CALM 29.62R
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 63 59 87 S7 29.58F
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