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April 2014, Week 1

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Subject:
From:
"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Fri, 4 Apr 2014 06:50:02 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
Parts/Attachments:
text/plain (194 lines)
Expires:201404042000;;138290
FPUS51 KBTV 040830
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
430 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

VTZ006-042000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
430 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EDT SATURDAY...
.TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...RAIN OR SLEET. SLEET ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO 1 INCH.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. RAIN OR SLEET LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN A
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SLEET ACCUMULATION.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 20S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 50. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN
90 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.
LOWS IN THE MID 20S. 
$$

Expires:201404041100;;144083
ASUS41 KBTV 041010
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI APR 04 2014
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-041100-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     SUNNY     25  20  81 S3        30.11F                  
MONTPELIER     SUNNY     19  15  84 CALM      30.13F                  
MORRISVILLE    MOSUNNY   18  15  88 CALM      30.13F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     21  18  88 MISG      30.12R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      21  14  75 CALM      30.11S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      24  23  98 CALM      30.11R                  
RUTLAND*       MOSUNNY   30  19  64 S9        30.09F                  
SPRINGFIELD    MOSUNNY   28  24  85 CALM      30.13F                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      26  20  80 E5        30.13S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      20  16  84 CALM      30.12S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    39  21  48 E6        30.05S                  
SUTTON*          N/A     21 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     28  23  80 NW7         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     28  25  86 NE5         N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;140236
FXUS61 KBTV 040902
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
502 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AND WILL BRING RAIN ALONG WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 502 AM EDT FRIDAY...SKIES WILL START OUT PARTLY SUNNY THIS
MORNING AND THEN CLOUD OVER BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING RAIN TO
BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 502 AM EDT FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TONIGHT ...WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS TO THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER EASTERN VERMONT LATER
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE
GONE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
TONIGHT...EXCEPT EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE COLD AIR
DAMMING WILL HELP TO KEEP COLDER AIR IN LONGER THERE...AND THUS A
PERIOD OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE.
A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...SO
EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED AND MORE SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION. EXPECTING SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO LINGER INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL CONT
TO BE PROGRESSIVE WITH BEST CHC FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF DIGGING ACRS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON MONDAY...WITH POTENT 5H
VORT ENHANCING SFC LOW PRES ACRS THE MS/OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WL ADVECT DEEP GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO OUR
REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT AT THE SAME TIME A WELL DEFINED 850
TO 500MB DRY SLOT WL BE SURGING INTO OUR REGION. THIS WL QUICKLY
END THE STEADIER/HEAVIER PREICP BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTN. THE COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE
RRQ OF 25H JET...GOOD MID WAA AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/LIFT...AND
TRACK OF CLOSED 7H/5H CIRCULATION WL RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD
MODERATE COLD RAIN EVENT ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HAVE NOTED
A COOL LAYER BTWN 925MB AND 850MB WITH TEMPS NEAR 0C...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE MIDSLOPE ELEVATIONS
BTWN 1800 AND 2800 FT. GIVEN PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND
PRIMARY SFC LOW TRACK TO OUR WEST...THINKING QPF WL BE TRRN
DRIVEN...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON THE SE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF
GREEN/DACK MTNS. HAVE NOTED IN THE QPF FIELDS OFF BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF...THAT THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SPLIT OUR CWA...EITHER TO
THE WEST CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF AXIS OR TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST...ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT LLVL JET AND DEEPER/HIGHER PWS. THIS
SUGGESTS QPF AMOUNTS BTWN 0.25 AND 0.75" WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
NEAR 1.0 IN THE MTNS ACRS OUR FA. NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD HYDRO
PROBLEMS GIVEN THIS AMOUNT OF QPF...BUT COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE
50S ON MONDAY...PRIOR TO THE EVENT...SOME LOCALIZED ICE JAM AND
MINOR LOW LYING FLOODING WL BE POSSIBLE. WL CONT TO MONITOR WITH
LATEST DATA FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MINOR FLOODING.
OTHERWISE...PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 4-6C MONDAY SUPPORT HIGHS M40S
MTNS TO M50S VALLEYS...IF CLOUDS DEVELOP QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED
TEMPS WL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER. A DAMP AND COOL DAY IS EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE U30S MTNS TO M40S VALLEYS. IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS IN THE LATE AFTN...A FEW TEMPS NEAR 50F WL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. COOLER AND DRIER WX ARRIVES ON
WEDS INTO THURS...AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEVELOPS. BEST CHC FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WL BE ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 30S MTNS TO 40S VALLEYS...SEVERAL DEGREES BLW NORMAL FOR
THE 2ND WEEK OF APRIL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AS SFC
LOW PRES TRACKS WEST OF OUR TAF SITES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...A BAND OF
PRECIP...AND LOWERING VIS/CIGS ACRS OUR TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HRS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS WL CONT
OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AND LWRING THRU 18Z FRIDAY.
PRECIP MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN ARRIVES BTWN 20Z-22Z TODAY WITH
CIGS/VIS DROPPING TO MVFR AT MOST SITES. IN ADDITION...LLVL JET OF
45 TO 50 KNTS WITH FAVORABLE SE DOWNSLOPE FLW SIGNATURE ON
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SFC WIND GUSTS BTWN 30 AND 40 KNTS THIS
AFTN/EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT RUT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WL GUSTS BTWN
20 AND 30 KNTS WITH AREAS OF LLWS/TURBULENCE LIKELY. BRIEF PERIODS
OF MODERATE RAIN MIXED WITH FREEZE RAIN/SLEET WL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT MPV/SLK WITH SOME IFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFT 06Z SATURDAY. 
OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STEADY AND HEAVIER PRECIP
WL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS BY 12Z
SAT...WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT SLK/MPV.
WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM 18Z SAT THRU
00Z TUESDAY. SOME LEFTOVER MTN SNOW SHOWERS SAT AFT INTO SAT NIGHT
MAY PRODUCE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS AT SLK. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES
AFT 00Z TUESDAY WITH LWRING CIGS AND MAINLY RAIN DEVELOPING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS FROM
00Z TUES TO 12Z TUESDAY...ALONG WITH DEVELOPING GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND ASSOCIATED AREAS OF TURBULENCE AND LLVL WS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT 
     SATURDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER

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