Expires:202008212000;;572688
FPUS51 KBTV 210713
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
310 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020
VTZ006-212000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
310 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020
.TODAY...Partly sunny this morning, then becoming mostly cloudy.
A chance of showers. A chance of thunderstorms this afternoon.
Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds this afternoon. Highs
in the lower 70s. West winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain
50 percent.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms
until midnight, then a slight chance of showers after midnight.
Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds until midnight. Lows
in the mid 50s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain
40 percent.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Light and
variable winds.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Light and
variable winds.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest winds around
10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid
70s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in
the upper 50s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 50s.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 60s.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 50s.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the lower 70s.
$$
Expires:202008211100;;580447
ASUS41 KBTV 211010
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2020
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-211100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON MOCLDY 67 52 58 S15 29.87R
MONTPELIER MOCLDY 60 53 77 SW6 29.93F
MORRISVILLE MOCLDY 59 57 93 CALM 29.88F
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 61 53 75 MISG 29.88F
LYNDONVILLE* MOCLDY 58 51 78 CALM 29.92F
RUTLAND* PTCLDY 54 52 93 CALM 29.94S
SPRINGFIELD CLEAR 50 48 93 CALM 29.95S
HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 63 57 79 S8 29.84F
BENNINGTON CLEAR 51 48 89 CALM 29.95F
LAKE EDEN* N/A 57 N/A N/A CALM N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
$$
Expires:No;;574132
FXUS61 KBTV 210750
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
350 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move south across the North Country,
today. This will produce scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms across the region today. A few stronger
thunderstorms will be capable of locally gusty winds this
afternoon into early this evening. Saturday is expected to be
mostly dry, with an isolated shower near the higher summits.
Additional weather disturbances will pass through our area,
bringing intervals of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
throughout much of the next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Friday...A weak warm front is currently
shifting eastwards. Warm advection and low-level convergence
noted in Q-vectors fields has allowed light showers to develop,
though amounts have not been high due to low-level dry air. A
few moderate showers are beginning to cross into the St.
Lawrence Valley. Shower activity is moving eastward, following
zonal flow across the mid-levels. A east-west oriented cold
front will slowly sag southwards later this morning. North of
the boundary, temperatures will generally remain in the 70s, but
south of the boundary, some low to mid 80s will develop. The
thermal contrast with modest destabilization up to 500-1000
J/kg, subtle height falls as the base of an upper trough reaches
our forecast area, and 0-3km shear values of 30 knots support
the potential for at least some organization of shower activity
and a few thunderstorms. Any storms that congregate into
clusters could produce strong, gusty winds, but will struggle as
noted through tall, skinny CAPE profiles and poor lapse rates
making it difficult to mix these winds down though. The SPC
maintains marginal risk severe weather outlook for our region
today, indicating the potential for isolated, short-lived severe
weather.
Cold front sags south of our region tonight with waning shower
activity. Lows generally in the 50s across the region. It
appears the front will push far enough south that we should see
partial clearing. It will not be ideal for fog given shortwave
ridge and surface high are not directly overhead, but given the
precipitation, think some valley fog will be possible. Frontal
boundary generally remains south, and that will be the
convective focus for Saturday. A few showers could try to
develop near Mt. Marcy and in the southern Greens, but height
rises and mid-level capping appears to stymie storm potential.
Thus, mostly dry for Saturday with highs in the mid 70s to lower
80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EDT Friday...The front will lift northward
overnight into Sunday morning as a warm front, eventually
pushing very near or just north of the international border. In
the meantime, a weak area of low pressure will push eastward
through Ontario and into Quebec. This feature passing by just to
our north will allow showers and thunderstorms to develop
during the afternoon. The most concentrated activity will likely
occur over southern Quebec/Ontario and slide southeastward
across the border during the late afternoon- evening hours.
Areas south of the warm front will warm well into the 80s. CAPE
values will approach or even exceed 1000 J/kg, along with shear
of 25-35 kt. Hence some stronger storms capable of gusty winds
will be possible , mainly in northern areas closest to the best
shear and dynamic forcing. A weak frontal boundary will move out
of Canada Sunday night once the low moves to our east, which
should shunt any lingering convection out of our area during the
evening hours. Flow turns more to the west/northwest, and note
that some of the guidance indicates another round of possible
convection late Sunday night with an upper disturbance passing
through the flow aloft. Highs on Sunday will mostly be in the
lower to mid 80s. Overnight lows both Saturday and Sunday nights
will be in the mid 50s to around 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Friday...It will remain unsettled through much
of next week as we'll remain under west/northwest flow aloft,
with a series of upper shortwaves and surface fronts will
traverse across the region. This makes for a bit of a complex
forecast as models continue to have a hard time agreeing on
exact timing/placement of these features. Regardless, we will be
in for several rounds of precipitation through the week, with
the best chances to occur on Tuesday with the passage of a
sharper shortwave and cold front. Note that the GFS keeps
Wednesday dry with high pressure building over the North
Country, while the other guidance including the ECMWF and CMC
bring yet another weak shortwave and showers to the region.
After near normal temperatures earlier in the week, the
aforementioned cold front will usher in cooler air with highs in
the 70s areawide for the latter half of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Anticipate VFR conditions with scattered
showers crossing eastwards over KMSS/KPBG/KSLK/KBTV through
about 08Z-11Z. Still some LLWS for KPBG and KMSS the next few hours
as a low-level jet pushes east with a warm front through about
10Z. Coverage of showers decreases briefly during the morning
before reinvigorating after 14Z and then sagging south towards
KMPV and KRUT as well towards 18Z with a few storms possible.
Winds will be terrain driven or out of the south to southwest,
increasing from 3 to 7 knots up to 5 to 9 knots with some gusts
up to 15 knots at KBTV and KRUT. As a cold front crosses
southward around 21Z, winds become more west to northwesterly at
5 knots or less. Showers and storms wane after 00Z. Ceilings
fall to 2500-5000ft agl, with possible MVFR ceilings most likely
at KSLK and KMPV after 00Z.
Outlook...
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Haynes
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