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September 1999, Week 3

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From:
Wesley's Ski Hut <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Wed, 15 Sep 1999 06:50:02 -0400
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572
FPUS51 KBTV 150743
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECASTS FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 AM EDT WED SEP 15 1999

NYZ028-035-VTZ001-002-005-009-151500-
ADDISON-CHITTENDEN-E ESSEX NY-FRANKLIN VT-GRAND ISLE-NE CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURLINGTON...MIDDLEBURY...PLATTSBURGH...
ST. ALBANS
342 AM EDT WED SEP 15 1999

.TODAY...CLOUDY THIS MORNING...PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH IN THE LOWER 70S. LIGHT WIND.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY.  LOW 55 TO 60. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10
MPH.
.THURSDAY...BECOMING CLOUDY...WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN.  HIGH
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BREEZY WITH RAIN LIKELY. LOW IN THE 50S.
HIGH IN THE 60S.
.SATURDAY...RAIN ENDING AND CLEARING.  LOW 50 TO 55. HIGH IN THE 60S.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY.  LOW IN THE 40S.  HIGH 65 TO 70.

$$

VTZ003-004-006>008-010-151500-
CALEDONIA-ESSEX VT-LAMOILLE-ORANGE-ORLEANS-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTPELIER...NEWPORT...ST. JOHNSBURY
342 AM EDT WED SEP 15 1999

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH AROUND 70. LIGHT WIND.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARD
MORNING. LOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. LIGHT WIND.
.THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN.  HIGH IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BREEZY WITH RAIN LIKELY. LOW IN THE 50S.
HIGH IN THE 60S.
.SATURDAY...RAIN ENDING AND CLEARING.  LOW AROUND 50. HIGH IN THE
60S.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY.  LOW IN THE 40S.  HIGH 65 TO 70.

$$

VTZ011-012-151500-
RUTLAND-WINDSOR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD
342 AM EDT WED SEP 15 1999

.EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING.
.TODAY...CLOUDY THIS MORNING...PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
IN THE LOWER 70S. LIGHT WIND.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW 55 TO 60. NORTH WIND 5 TO 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGH IN THE MID 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70
PERCENT.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BREEZY WITH RAIN LIKELY. LOW IN THE 50S.
HIGH IN THE 60S.
.SATURDAY...RAIN ENDING AND CLEARING.  LOW AROUND 50. HIGH IN THE
60S.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY.  LOW IN THE 40S.  HIGH 65 TO 70.

$$

NYZ026-027-151500-
N FRANKLIN NY-N ST LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MALONE...MASSENA
342 AM EDT WED SEP 15 1999

.TODAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.  HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. LIGHT
WIND.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 50 TO 55. LIGHT WIND.
.THURSDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS...WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON.  HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BREEZY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOW IN THE
50S. HIGH IN THE 60S.
.SATURDAY...DECREASING CLOUDS.  LOW IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S.
HIGH IN THE 60S.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY.  LOW IN THE 40S.  HIGH IN THE MID 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S.

$$

NYZ029>031-034-151500-
S FRANKLIN NY-S ST LAWRENCE-SW CLINTON-W ESSEX NY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LAKE PLACID
342 AM EDT WED SEP 15 1999

.TODAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH IN THE UPPER 60S. LIGHT WIND.
.TONIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
TOWARD MORNING. LOW 50 TO 55. LIGHT WIND.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN.  HIGH
IN THE LOWER 60S.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BREEZY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOW 50 TO
55. HIGH 55 TO 65.
.SATURDAY...DECREASING CLOUDS.  LOW IN THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
HIGH IN THE 60S.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY.  LOW IN THE 40S.  HIGH 65 TO 70.

$$

ST. JEAN





                          National Weather Service
     Click for - [1]Internet problems during major weather? EMWIN live
               weather broadcast information available here.

     _________________________________________________________________

FXUS61 KBTV 150700
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 AM EDT WED SEP 15 1999

A LITTLE SPEED MAX SHOWED UP NICELY IN THE WATER VAPOR WINDS AND
THE 00 UTC RUC MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO EASTERN NEW
YORK. THIS FEATURE ALIGNED WELL WITH THE VORT CENTER MOVING INTO
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT...SETTING OFF WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
HAVE ADDED EARLY MORNING PERIOD TO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND ADIRONDACKS
ZONES TO HANDLE THIS.

WEAK FRONT TO STALL TODAY FROM THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY INTO
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...LEAVING MORE CLOUDS IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.  HAVE GONE WITH A DECREASING CLOUDS TREND IN WESTERN ZONES.
FRONTAL FORCING WEAK FOR NO MENTION OF POPS IN ANY ZONES TODAY.  MAX
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM UPPER 60S IN THE DACKS TO THE LOWER TO MID
70S IN WESTERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY.

TRYING TO USE SOME REASONABLE COMBINATION OF ETA/AVN/NESTED MODELS...
WILL ESTIMATE THAT THE GREATEST THREAT OF TROPICAL-BASED
PRECIPITATION WILL GET INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTY OVERNIGHT.  LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIP AT BEST IN NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AND THE DACKS.  LESS
CLOUD COVER BACK TO THE NORTHWEST IN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.  MIN
TEMPERATURES 50 TO 60F.

PRECIP LIKELY INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
UNCERTAINTY OF FLOYD'S TRACK LEAVES ME WITH NO CHOICE BUT TO CONTINUE
ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  CLOUDS WILL KEEP
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.

3 TO 5 DAY...THANKS BUFFALO FOR HELPFUL COORDINATION.  WILL BUMP ALL
ZONES' POPS TO LIKELY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  HAVE WORDED
PRECIP AS RAIN IN VERMONT AND AS SHOWERS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK.  WILL
ALSO ADD BREEZY WORDING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS NORTHERLY
GRADIENT INCREASES.  THE COMPARATIVELY SLOW AVN STORM TRACK TAKES
PRECIP OUT OF FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING...SO WILL GO WITH A
CLEARING TREND FOR SATURDAY PERIOD.

ST. JEAN

.BTV...NONE.





     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 150143
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
942 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 1999

BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...AND MODEL GUIDANCE...EXPECT SCT SHWRS TO
BE ENDING OVRNGT IN VT. SHWR AREA DCRSNG ON RADAR ATTM. NO NEED
TO MENTION SHWRS IN NY ADIRONDACKS OR ST LAW VLY OVRNGT. OTRW
CLDY OR BCMG PTLY CLDY NRN NY.

VORT EXITS OUR AREA TWD THE NE OVRNGT WITH VORTICITY PATTERN
CHANNELED THEREAFTR ACRS OUR AREA. ASOCD MSTR MAX EASES E AND SE ACRS
SRN/ERN VT BY MRNG WITH DRIER AIR INTO NRN NY ON WED AND PRBLY INTO
NW VT.

MSTR SLOLY RETURNS N AS MSTR ASOCD WITH FLOYD MOVS N. BY 12Z THURS
MSTR IS ACRS SRN AND ERN VT WITH RN DVLPG A GOOD BET AS NOTED IN
CURRENT FCST. SHWRS OR RN ACRS NW VT AND NRN NY LKS REASONABLE FOR
THE AFTN.

WL CONT TO MONITR FCST TRACK OF FLOYD AS ISSUED BY TPC/NHC FOR
DETAILS CONCERNING EXTENDED FCST. CURRENT NHC TRACK SEEMS TO BE IN
LINE MORE WITH PREV AVN RUNS...ALTHO CURRENT AVN RUN SLOWER.

SFH

.BTV...NONE.





     _________________________________________________________________


FXUS61 KBTV 141817
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
216 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 1999

STILL DEALING WITH SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS
THAT HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THIS AFTERNOON.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT MAX AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SPEED SHEAR THAT MOVED UP ALONG THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION.  THIS APPEARS TO HAVE ENHANCED THE PRECIPITATION
ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
THE CAHMPLAIN VALLEY OF VERMONT.  THIS POINTED OUT EARLIER BY ALBANY
AND APPEARS TO BE A VERY ACCURATE ASSESSMENT. WITH THIS VORT/SPEED
MAX NOW MOVING OUT OF THE AREA...TREND SHOULD BE FOR A DECREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.  THUS WILL MENTION SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF VERMONT...BUT
ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF VERMONT.  BAND OF
MOISTURE HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO PUSH EAST AND MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT
VERY FAR INTO VERMONT BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.  BUT WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH...STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS.

PLENTY OF MOSITURE TO LINGER AROUND ON WEDNESDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.  CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

SOME CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE POTENTIAL INFLUX
OF MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE FLOYD.  STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW FAR NORTH FLOYD WILL GET.  IT APPEARS TO BE DEPENDENT UPON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND HOW FAR
IT DIGS SOUTH.  THIS WOULD HELP BACK THE UPPER FLOW TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND ALLOW FOR THE MOISTURE TO SPREAD ON UP INTO
NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WOULD THUS BRING A THREAT OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.  WILL JUST MENTION A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE MOST AREAS.  THIS APPEARS TO WORK WELL WITH ALBANY'S
THINKING.

IN THE EXTENDED...AGAIN UNCERTAINTY ARISES WITH THE PATH OF FLOYD.
OLD MRF STILL KEEPS TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BEFORE SHRTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
TROUGH.  THUS WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THEN GO MOSTLY SUNNY ON SUNDAY.

EVENSON

.BTV...NONE.





     _________________________________________________________________


   This data is from the [2]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/emwin/winven.htm
   2. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html


319
ASUS51 KALB 151002
SWRVT

VERMONT STATE HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED SEP 15 1999

CITY           SKY/WX   TEMP DEWPT RH  WIND    PRES    REMARKS

VTZ001>014-151100-

.... VERMONT ....

BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    60   58   93  CALM    30.10R
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  61   60   97  CALM    30.15R
RUTLAND         N/A      63   61   93  CALM    30.10S
ST JOHNSBURY    N/A      64   61   90  CALM    30.10R
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    63   62   97  CALM    30.12S
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY    60   59   96  CALM    30.13R  FOG
BENNINGTON     MOCLDY    62   62  100  CALM    30.12R  FOG

.......... KEY ..........
    WCI - WIND CHILL INDEX
    VSB - VISIBILITY IN MILES
    HX  - HEAT INDEX
    FAIR- INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET, WITH NO
          SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY

$$



                        _LSC WEATHER CENTER FORECAST
                    11:00 PM, Tuesday September 14, 1999
                    STUDENT METEOROLOGIST: Jason Dollard_
       _** The latest forecast for Northeast & North Central Vermont**
       ** The area bounded by Waterbury, St. Johnsbury, and Newport**_


   _
   Tonight: Cloudy with the chance of a scattered sprinkle this evening
   as the cold front to the West pushes near us. Low's overnight will be
   in the low to mid 50's and winds will be out of the Southeast at 5 to
   10 mph.

   Wednesday: Clouds will begin to clear up and we will see a mix of sun
   and clouds throughout the day. High's will be right near 70 and winds
   will be out of the West at 5 to 10 mph.

   Wednesday Night: Continued clearing early in the evening hours, but
   then clouding right back up. Low's will be in the low to mid 50's and
   winds will remain out of the West at 5 to 10 mph.

   Thursday: Cloudy with a chance of rain late in the day as the first
   bits of Hurricane Floyd moves in. High's will be in the low to mid
   60's, with low's in the mid to upper 40's.

                             Extended Forecast

   Friday: A chance of rain, may be heavy and accumulating at times
   depending on where Floyd ends up. High's will be in the low to mid
   60's and low's will be in the upper 40's to lower 50's.

   Saturday: Once again we have a chance of rain. This will not be as
   heavy as Friday's and anything hitting the ground should be over
   towards the end of the day. High's will be in the mid 60's and low's
   will be in the upper 40's to low 50's.

   Sunday: The unsettled weather moves on out and we will see mostly
   sunny skies. High's will be in the mid to upper 60's and low's will be
   in the mid 40's.

                            Forecast Discussion


   Our slow moving cold front is still to our West and should pass over
   us Wednesday night and into Thursday. Any precipitaion we will get
   from this frontal passage will be scattered and very minimal. Our next
   concern is how much precipitation we will get from Hurricane Floyd and
   when it will hit our area. Right now the models show the first bands
   of precipitation moving in Wednesday night and into Thursday. It looks
   like the bulk of the storm will stay off to the coast and
   accumulations over our area will be significantly lower than
   anticipated and all should be said and done by Saturday afternoon.
   Then the skies will start to clear up for Sunday. Keep in mind that
   this is still to early to give and EXACT estimate of where the
   precipitation will fall and when it will fall, so keep in touch with
   the weatherphone to find out the latest changes.

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