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March 2020, Week 1

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Subject:
Daily Morning Vermont Weather
From:
"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Thu, 5 Mar 2020 06:50:03 -0500
Content-Type:
text/plain
Parts/Attachments:
text/plain (220 lines)
Expires:202003052100;;525957
FPUS51 KBTV 051053
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
549 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2020


VTZ006-052100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
549 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2020

.TODAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. Northwest winds
10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph this morning. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy until midnight, then becoming mostly
cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. North winds around 10 mph until
midnight, becoming light and variable. 
.FRIDAY...Cloudy. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then a
chance of rain or snow in the afternoon. Little or no snow
accumulation. Highs in the upper 30s. Light and variable winds,
becoming east around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of
precipitation 50 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow
showers. Little or no snow accumulation. Lows around 13. North
winds around 10 mph. 
.SATURDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 10 to
15 mph. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows 15 to 20. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. 
.MONDAY...Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain showers. Highs
in the upper 40s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Rain showers likely. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance
of rain 60 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Rain showers likely. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of
rain 60 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...A chance of snow or rain showers likely. Lows in
the mid 20s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Cloudy with a chance of snow or rain showers. Highs
in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 

$$


Expires:202003051200;;527752
ASUS41 KBTV 051130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST THU MAR 05 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-051200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    33  25  72 CALM      29.97R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    32  24  72 NW15G24   29.94R WCI  22          
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    33  24  69 VRB5      29.93R WCI  29          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     33  23  66 MISG      29.88R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      30  22  73 W9        29.91R WCI  21          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    30  28  90 CALM      29.97R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    33  25  72 NW5       29.96R WCI  29          
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    35  24  64 W12G18    29.94R WCI  27          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      33  29  85 W3        29.97R                  
NEWPORT*       MOCLDY    29  24  84 W10       29.92R WCI  19          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    33  25  72 W10       29.98R WCI  25          
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     28 N/A N/A NE2         N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     21 N/A N/A W18         N/A  WCI   6          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     34  30  86 W8          N/A  WCI  27          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     36  30  80 NW14        N/A  WCI  27          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     37  28  70 W12G21      N/A  WCI  30          

$$


Expires:No;;527164
FXUS61 KBTV 051119
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
619 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier weather forecast for today as high pressure briefly builds
overhead with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Light rain and 
snow returns Friday as a weak clipper low tracks through the 
North Country. Overall snowfall accumulations of an inch or less
is expected. Below normal temperatures will follow this system 
on Saturday but we quickly warm back above normal with 
temperatures in the 40s for Sunday and Monday. The next weather 
system to impact the North Country will move through on Tuesday 
when it looks like widespread rainfall will be possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 610 AM EST Thursday...Main area of cloudiness currently
resides over the mountains. Adjusted sky cover based on IR
satellite data with minor tweaks to winds as areas east of the
Greens are occasionally gusting to 25 mph. We have a window of 
clearing this afternoon, but as a weak clipper system begins to 
approach from the Great Lakes, some mid-level clouds will begin 
to stream into the region. High temperatures should be similar 
to yesterday, with mid 30s to mid 40s across our region. Unlike 
yesterday, it will not be so breezy as the day progresses. Lows
fall into the 20s for much of the region with increasing clouds
from the west. Thus, parts of eastern Vermont (like Island 
Pond) could briefly radiate out before these clouds arrive.

Clipper system will begin to approach late Thursday into the
overnight hours on Friday. If it were not for the coastal low well-
removed from the coast, it would provide us some decent
precipitation. As it stands though, all the synoptic forcing will be
stretched apart as northerly winds develop across the area under the
developing coastal's influence. The clipper low will quickly open
into a trough and its warm front will begin to slide south as a cold
front. Valleys will be warm enough that some rain or rain/snow mix
will take place as temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s.
Once winds turn northerly, this should quickly become all snow.
Precipitation amounts are very light, generally 0.10" possible over
parts of the Adirondacks, but everywhere else will be a few
hundredths.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 208 AM EST Thursday...Decaying northern stream energy 
continues to sink quickly south Friday evening as it becomes 
absorbed in deepening offshore energy well southeast of the 
40N/-70W benchmark. As such only minor affects will be felt, 
mainly in the form of scattered light snow shower activity with 
any accumulations generally less than 1 inch. Building high 
pressure then brings clearing skies for Saturday. This will be 
the coolest period of the 7 day forecast with overnight lows 
generally from 8 to 16 above and highs in the upper 20s to mid 
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 208 AM EST Thursday...Quiet weather then persists 
Saturday night into the first half of Monday under high pressure
and moderating temperatures. Sunday highs mainly in the 40s 
with 50s likely in many spots by Monday. Late in the day on 
Monday, but more so for Monday night into Tuesday chances for 
precipitation increase as low pressure advances east from the 
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This morning's GFS continues to be 
a faster outlier among global solutions, not uncommon at these 
time ranges and a known bias with eastward propagating mid- 
latitude systems. P-type looks to be mainly rain showers given 
relatively mild boundary layer to mid level temperatures, though
some mix with snow will be possible north Monday night, and 
again Tuesday night as system exits.

The forecast becomes more uncertain by the middle of next week as 
additional energy may affect the region with more rain/snow chances. 
Not a lot of agreement on timing and track of this feature at this 
point, so only chance PoPs will be offered. Temperatures remain 
slightly above normal for the first half of March.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Mostly VFR at this time. Currently MVFR at
KMPV for 2400ft agl ceiling, and IFR at KSLK for 900ft agl 
ceilings. Expect these conditions to persist at least the next 
several hours and perhaps build into KMSS until roughly 21Z. 
Mid- level clouds around 8000ft to 12000ft agl will pass into 
the region towards 00Z. Most terminals experiencing west to 
northwest winds at 5 to 10 knots, with some 15 to 20 knots gusts
at KMPV. Winds briefly become variable around 00Z at 5 knots or
less, with generally an easterly preference.

Outlook...

Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN, Chance
RA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Haynes

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