Expires:201807312000;;327496
FPUS51 KBTV 311025
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
621 AM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018
VTZ006-312000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
621 AM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018
.TODAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers this morning, then
partly sunny with a slight chance of showers this afternoon. Highs
in the upper 70s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain
40 percent.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Light and variable
winds.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a slight chance of showers in the
morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers with a slight
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s.
Light and variable winds, becoming south around 10 mph in the
afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
Humid with lows in the upper 60s. South winds around 10 mph. Chance
of rain 70 percent.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest winds around
10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in
the mid 60s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 70s.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 60s.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the upper 80s.
$$
Expires:201807311100;;327554
ASUS41 KBTV 311030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2018
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-311100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON MOCLDY 67 64 90 NE5 30.12S
MONTPELIER MOCLDY 60 60 100 CALM 30.19S
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 60 60 100 MISG 30.14R
LYNDONVILLE* CLOUDY 58 57 97 CALM 30.18S
MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 64 63 96 CALM 30.14S
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 62 60 93 SE5 30.16R
SPRINGFIELD FAIR 61 61 100 CALM 30.16R
HIGHGATE* LGT RAIN 66 64 93 SE3 30.11S
NEWPORT* FAIR 59 58 96 S3 30.15S
BENNINGTON MOCLDY 62 60 93 CALM 30.16R FOG
ISLAND POND* N/A 55 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 57 N/A N/A MISG N/A
UNION VILLAGE* N/A 61 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 57 N/A N/A NW10 N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 70 64 83 S9G15 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 70 64 83 S9 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 68 68 100 S3 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;323082
FXUS61 KBTV 310825
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
425 AM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Strengthening high pressure across the western Atlantic will
keep warmth across the region well into next week along with
increasing humidity levels. The best threat of showers will
occur across northern portions of New York and Vermont this
morning, then across the entire area on Wednesday and again by
Friday. By next weekend generally dry weather returns, though
with increasing confidence of very warm to hot temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 333 AM EDT Tuesday...A mainly cloudy morning is unfolding
across the area as mid level moisture returns on strengthening
southwesterly flow aloft. Indeed, a fairly impressive 100 knot
jet near 250 mb continues to build into the northeast this
morning. This along with a weaker surge near 850 mb are
bolstering modest isentropic lift from 850-700 mb beneath which
scattered shower activity has blossomed across northern NY into
far western VT. Expect this activity to continue across these
areas and into portions of northern VT this morning before
waning in coverage by this afternoon as advective processes
weaken somewhat. Given a general lack of large scale
instability, precipitation will fall mainly as showers, though
by this afternoon a few/isolated storms may pop as clouds thin
and buoyancy peaks. Areas across the northern SLV and across far
southern VT counties to largely stay rain-free today. Given the
abundance of morning clouds, I did temper high temperatures
back just a bit, going about 2 degrees below blended guidance.
This supports readings from the mid 70s to lower 80s.
Isolated late afternoon showers then wane for a brief period this
evening under partly cloudy skies before a stronger surge of warm
advection pushes northeast later tonight when precipitation chances
will rise once again. The latest model trends keep the best
dynamical forcing across our northern NY counties and points
immediately west and highest chance PoPs will be offered in these
areas accordingly with VT counties holding mainly dry overnight. Low
temperatures to range through the 60s with a few upper 50s far
northeast, and a few spot 70F readings in the Champlain Valley.
By Wednesday a deeper moisture surge spreads across the area under
persistent southwesterly flow aloft. This factor along with weakly
diffluent flow ahead of a dampening longwave trough across the Ohio
Valley/Great Lakes and some modest instability should be sufficient
for better coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms. Deep layer
shear will also be fairly robust, though with rather paltry lapse
rates aloft convective buoyancy will be modest at best. SPC
maintains a marginal severe risk across our area, which seems
reasonable at this point with most storms remaining below severe
limits. Highs to run seasonably warm from the upper 70s to mid
80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 420 AM EDT Tuesday...Showers will continue into the
evening hours Wednesday as a deep moisture plum continues to
push north into the region. High pressure from the Bermuda high
and an upper level trough will squeeze higher PWATs over the
region and lead to some potential of some higher precipitation
efficiency from any showers. Anticipated totals range from
between 0.1" to as much as 0.5" of rainfall.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to linger into Thursday
and Thursday night as the positively tilted trough drifts east.
I'd anticipate most of the showers being scattered and not
necessarily a washout. The flow at this time will remain out of
the southwest and will continue to just pump warmer air into the
North Country. 925mb temps support temps in the mid to upper
80s with a spot 90 not really out of the question.
A weak cold front finally drags through the Thursday night into
Friday and should bring another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms. There's some potential for another surge of
rainfall across southern Vermont but I'd like to see some more
consistency in that axis of heavy precip.
Humidity values will creep up during daytime hours as dew
points move into the upper 60s. Unfortunately that will push
temps up into the somewhat uncomfortable levels.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 420 AM EDT Tuesday...High pressure dominates into the
weekend as chances for showers dwindle over the area. With the
high pressure building and warm air advection continuing expect
the Champlain Valley to make another run at a heat wave with
temps warming into the upper 80s to low 90s. The challenge will
be if and how much precip actually falls. The GFS is convecting
quite a bit and leads to more showers but I think thats
slightly over done. So I've maintained the idea of between
10-20% chances for showers. There's some indication that the
ridge will break down coming out of the weekend which may lead
to some showers early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR expected through the forecast
period as area of BKN/OVC mid level cigs in the 060-120 AGL
range affect the area. Within this area of clouds scattered
showers to affect KSLK/KPBG and possibly KBTV in the 06-14Z time
frame. Brief reductions to visibility into the MVFR range
possible with any showers with confidence on occurrence highest
at KSLK during this period. Elsewhere mainly dry wx expected.
After 18Z skies trend SCT VFR with perhaps a lingering pop-up
shower across northern NY. Winds light and variable, trending
light southerly in the 4-8 kt range after 12Z before becoming
light once again by 00Z Wed.
Outlook...
Wednesday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...JMG
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