Expires:201511122100;;239204
FPUS51 KBTV 121134
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015


VTZ006-122100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
630 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

.TODAY...CLOUDY...RAIN...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...RAIN UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO
20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN
90 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID
30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. 
.TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. 

$$


Expires:201511121200;;239033
ASUS41 KBTV 121130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-121200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    49  44  83 S9        29.84F                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    44  43  96 S7        29.90F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     45  43  93 MISG      29.86F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       43  42  97 SE5       29.88F VSB 1/4          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    49  49  99 S5        29.86R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    45  44  97 SE6       29.91F FOG              
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    46  42  86 SE5       29.83F                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    43  41  92 S8        29.86F                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    49  45  86 S7        29.88F                  
SUTTON*          N/A     43 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     41 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     45 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     41 N/A N/A S15         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     46  46 100 S17         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     46  46 100 SE10        N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;239391
FXUS61 KBTV 121138
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
638 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND THEN PASS
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TODAY...AND PERSISTING TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EST THURSDAY...ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPS AND POPS FOR THIS MORNING TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. LOW PRESSURE (986 MB) OVER WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY THIS EVENING. RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE
DAY TODAY. A LOT OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS
FORECAST AREA EARLY TODAY. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
INITIAL SURGE OF 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY BETWEEN 15-18Z AND WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FOR ABOUT A 3-6 HR
PERIOD. WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BE INCREASING TODAY. EXPECT WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35
MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUDS AND ARRIVAL OF
RAIN...TEMPS WILL BE MILD AS WE WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S EAST OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EST THURSDAY...RAIN CONTINUES THIS EVENING...THEN
BECOMES MORE SHOWERY WITH PASSAGE OF OCCLUDED FRONT BETWEEN
02-06Z. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 40-50 KTS AT 4-5 KFT MAY RESULT
IN SOME LOCALIZED SHADOWING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER PRECIPITATION TOTALS. TEMPS REMAIN MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S. SOME GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE WITH SOUTH WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH...BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH PASSAGE OF
FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS WHERE SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.

BLUSTERY AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. EXPECT NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
VERMONT...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY SOUTH. PRECIPITATION MORE
OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE AS FLOW BECOMES WEST-SOUTHWEST...WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OVER
ADIRONDACKS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY STRONG
GRADIENT FLOW WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK . EXPECT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS 40 MPH. TEMPS GRADUALLY COOLING WITH 850 MB TEMPS
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING...SO RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW
OVER THE SUMMITS DURING THE AFTERNOON. VALLEY TEMPS STILL RATHER
MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY DURING FRIDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND OROGRAPHIC ACTIVITY SHOULD TURN OVER TO A
PERIOD OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS BEFORE ENDING LATER FRIDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY AS SNOW LEVELS LOWER FROM 2500-3000FT AT 00Z SAT TO
500FT OR LESS BY SATURDAY MORNING. SUMMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2-4"
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY MT. MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK...WITH A COATING TO
2" OR SO AT ELEVATIONS 500 FT AND UPWARD 06-15Z SATURDAY. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...BUT LOCALLY IN THE
UPPER 20S IN THE 1-2KFT ELEVATIONAL BAND.

UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE FLOW DISSIPATES
BY AROUND 18Z SATURDAY WITH SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW.
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -5C AND -8C SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE
30S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 249 AM EST THURSDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW FROM DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
SLOW TREND TOWARDS CLEARING AND A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. BY SUNDAY MORNING,
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT SHOWING DEEP RIDGING BEGINNING
TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS AND GREAT
LAKES, WHICH WILL TAKE RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS,
PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES AND A WARMING TREND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS. TYPICALLY HIGHS FOR MID-NOVEMBER RANGE THROUGH THE 40S,
AND LOWS RIGHT AROUND 30 WHICH IS WHAT WE'LL SEE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THEREAFTER THOUGH, 925-850MB TEMPS WARM TO +5-10C
RESPECTIVELY RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 50S MONDAY/TUESDAY TO NEAR
60 FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
MONDAY/TUESDAY NIGHTS, WARMING INTO THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME-FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH VSBY MAINLY VFR/MVFR AND
CIGS MVFR/IFR IN LOW STRATUS. RAIN SHOWERS SHIFT INTO THE REGION
MID-DAY TODAY AND PERSIST FOR MOST SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5-15
KNOTS AFTER 14Z, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z, THEREAFTER
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND REMAINING GUSTY.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRI - 18Z SAT...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN AREAS OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND STRATUS...LOWEST AT MPV/SLK. RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH
AND/OR CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
MPV/SLK. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...MAINLY AT KMSS.
18Z SAT - 00Z TUE...TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH A BIT OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE
BROAD LAKE TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
RUTLAND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AWOS SYSTEM ARE STILL UNAVAILABLE.
FAA TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM. WE DO NOT HAVE ANY
ESTIMATE ON WHEN DATA WILL BECOME AVAILABLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...BTV STAFF

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