Expires:202301041900;;076577
FPUS51 KBTV 041105
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
601 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023
VTZ018-041900-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
601 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 AM EST THURSDAY...
.TODAY...Cloudy. Patchy dense fog this morning. A chance of rain
this morning, then rain likely this afternoon. Near steady
temperature in the mid 30s. Light and variable winds. Chance of
rain 70 percent.
.TONIGHT...Rain. Freezing rain likely after midnight. Ice
accumulation of up to a tenth of an inch. Lows in the lower 30s.
East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
.THURSDAY...Cloudy with a chance of rain. A chance of sleet or
freezing rain or snow in the morning, then a chance of snow in
the afternoon. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation. Ice
accumulation around a trace. Highs in the lower 30s. Southeast
winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Little
or no snow accumulation. Near steady temperature in the lower
30s. Southeast winds around 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. Little
or no snow accumulation. Highs in the mid 30s. Light and variable
winds.
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper
20s. Highs in the lower 30s.
.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows 16 to
21. Highs in the upper 20s.
.MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 30s.
Lows in the lower 20s.
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 20s.
$$
Expires:202301041200;;078117
ASUS41 KBTV 041130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST WED JAN 04 2023
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-041200-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON LGT RAIN 36 34 92 N6 29.84R WCI 31
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 36 31 82 CALM 29.85R HAZE
MORRISVILLE LGT RAIN 36 33 89 CALM 29.83R FOG
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 34 33 96 MISG 29.80S
LYNDONVILLE* HVY RAIN 33 32 98 CALM 29.81R VSB 1/4
MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 34 34 100 CALM 29.83R FOG
RUTLAND* MIX PCPN 35 35 100 N3 29.82R FOG
SPRINGFIELD LGT RAIN 34 33 96 CALM 29.83R VSB 3/4
HIGHGATE* N/A 34 33 96 CALM 29.86R FOG
NEWPORT* DRIZZLE 35 34 97 N6 29.83R WCI 29
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 40 35 83 CALM 29.80R HAZE
ISLAND POND* N/A 34 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 34 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 34 N/A N/A CALM N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 37 N/A N/A CALM N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 34 34 100 N1 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 36 34 93 N10 N/A WCI 28
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 37 36 93 N8 N/A WCI 31
$$
Expires:No;;078505
FXUS61 KBTV 041141
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
641 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
After a brief break this morning, another round of
precipitation will spread across the North Country this
afternoon and persist overnight and into Thursday morning. Much
of the precipitation is expected to fall as a wintry mix across
the north, central and southern locations should remain rain
until colder air starts to move southward during the day on
Thursday. Snow, sleet, and ice accumulation could make for
difficult travel, especially the Wednesday evening and Thursday
morning commutes. Precipitation will wind down to scattered snow
showers by late Thursday afternoon.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 630 AM EST Wednesday...A few showers are still crossing
the region this morning, but seeing areas of fog and drizzle, as
well. This will persist for another few hours, then some minor
improvement by mid morning. Temperatures are still mostly at or
above freezing, with most webcams/surface obs indicating rain.
Still expect some cooling to occur on the eastern side of the
Adirondacks, so some brief freezing rain will be possible there,
along with a few sheltered locations east of the
central/southern Greens, but overall the bulk of the
precipitation will hold off until this afternoon. The forecast
has this covered, so just made some slight tweaks to
temperatures and precipitation type to match the latest trends.
Previous discussion...Still anticipating a wintry mix of
precipitation later today into Thursday morning, with
significant icing likely in the St Lawrence Valley and along the
eastern side of the Adirondacks down into the western Champlain
Valley. Hazardous travel is expected, and winter Weather
Advisories are in effect from early this afternoon through
Thursday morning. Total ice accumulations of a tenth to a third
of an inch, locally higher in spots, is expected across much of
northern NY, with up to two tenths for much of VT. Snow and
sleet accumulations will be an inch or less.
Scattered showers are shifting eastward across our forecast area
early this morning. Precipitation type has mainly been rain with
this activity, but have seen some reports of snow, freezing rain,
and perhaps sleet or rain/snow mix, as current temperatures are in
the lower to mid 30s. This precipitation should exit to our east by
daybreak or so, and we should see a break in the action for at least
a few hours with weak ridging shifting overhead. Since little
appreciable precipitation is expected after this initial batch
this morning until this afternoon, have delayed the Winter
Weather Advisory start time until 1 pm today.
Although there have been a few changes in the details, the overall
forecast and main messaging remains unchanged. A decaying cold front
lies poised to our north, while a nearly stationary warm front
stretches across southern NY/New England. The triple point low
associated with this front will lift north and east into the lower
Great Lakes today into tonight, allowing the warm front to lift
slightly northward as it does so. A swath of precipitation,
currently positioned well to our south, will lift northward through
the day and begin shifting into our region by mid/late afternoon. By
this time, temperatures will mainly be in the mid and upper 30s, so
most areas should start out as rain. However, colder air will start
to push southward along the northern and eastern sides of the
Adirondacks, so precipitation will likely start out as freezing
rain in these areas. As the low shifts off the New England
coast overnight, the colder air will push southward on
increasingly northeast winds, down the St Lawrence Valley, the
western Champlain Valley, and into the northern Greens/Northeast
Kingdom, undercutting warmer air aloft as it does so. Hence
expect the freezing rain to expand into these areas overnight,
eventually mixing with/changing to sleet and or snow as the cold
wedge at the surface grows deeper. For the western Adirondacks,
east of the Greens, and much of the eastern side of the
Champlain Valley, winds will have a more easterly/southeasterly
component, and this should allow temperatures to remain above
freezing through at least midnight or so, but colder air will
eventually win out, and expect all areas from the Greens
eastward will see a mix of snow, sleet, and some freezing rain
by daybreak Thursday morning. All that being said, the
precipitation will lift fairly quickly across our region, and
the steadiest activity should shift north into Canada by mid
morning Thursday, tapering to showers thereafter. Therefore, the
current ending time of 10 am for the Advisory still looks good.
However, cold air will continue to slowly spread over the
region through the rest of the day, eventually replacing the
warmer air aloft and changing precipitation over to primarily
scattered snow showers. Some additional snow accumulation will
be possible, and untreated roadways may become icy as any
standing water freezes.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 445 AM EST Wednesday...Tricky, potentially hazardous weather
continues into the short term period due to temperatures near
freezing, while ill-defined areas of light precipitation move
through associated with weak lift ahead of a decaying upper level
trough. Given light southerly flow and cloud cover, temperatures
will tend to be steady Thursday night. Surface temperatures in the
Champlain Valley and southern portions of northern New York are
currently forecast to be just above freezing, although any slight
cooling may lead to development of icy spots. Precipitation type
will be all snow, however, as temperatures aloft no longer should
have a melting layer. The combination of light snow Thursday night
and snow showers during the day on Friday will provide at least a
coating to an inch, with locally 1 to 2", of new snow in most
locations. With weak wind fields, not looking at much of an
orographic enhancement with this precipitation. Model guidance tends
to show best upper level forcing for precipitation passing just to
our south, so coverage of snow showers may be higher across southern
portions of northern New York and Vermont. However, there isn't a
strong enough signal for the probabilities to vary much outside of
the general 30 to 50% chance, only that measurable snow on Friday
will tend to be in those southern areas. Snow ratios of the light
snow will be generally rather low in the 7:1 to 9:1 range, and this
very wet snow is supported by near-freezing temperature profiles in
the precipitating cloud layer and surface temperatures near or
slightly above freezing. By comparison, snow ratios with snow
showers on Friday will tend to be closer to average, generally in
the 10:1 to 12:1 range, as temperatures aloft cool a bit.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 445 AM EST Wednesday...Some lingering snow showers are possible
Friday night, primarily in higher elevations with ridging moving
into the region helping minimize lift aside from terrain-driven
ascent. Ridging may be accompanied by a cold frontal passage
Saturday morning, although degree of low level advection is unclear
based on model variance of the strength of the front. Regardless,
temperatures should trend colder and skies more clear as the weekend
progresses, with generally seasonable conditions.
A mix of deterministic and ensemble data now supports a light
snowfall for Monday associated with a southern stream shortwave
trough, with greater probabilities south and east with development
of a weak coastal storm. Precipitation is currently in the slight
chance category, but if these trends continue, will see much greater
probabilities as we get closer. While air temperatures are forecast
to rise above freezing in most spots, would expect wet bulb
temperatures to be low enough that if precipitation does occur highs
will be lower than currently indicated. The configuration of the jet
stream does not suggest a big storm for our region, but any snow
would be welcome given the lack of snow in recent weeks. Following
this system, as is often the case once we move into day 7 there is
particularly large model disagreement with large scale weather
systems, so have followed the NBM with the idea of seasonably cold
and dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions expected
to continue through 14z, with ceilings and visibilities
gradually improving to MVFR as showers/drizzle wind down and
ceilings lift. Precipitation moves back in after 18z, mainly as
rain from KBTV southward, and a wintry mix in the north through
06z, then all sites transitioning to wintry precipitation.
Visibility to be restricted to 3-5SM, and ceilings likely lower
to MVFR/IFR by 03z. Winds will be less than 5 knots and
variable, but with a preference for a north to northwest
direction at times.
Outlook...
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA, Chance
SN, Chance FZRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN.
Friday: MVFR. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
Thursday for VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
Thursday for NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Hastings
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