Expires:202306251400;;716737
FPUS51 KBTV 250647
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
244 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023


VTZ018-251400-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
244 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

.TODAY...Patchy fog this morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of
showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms this morning, then
partly sunny with showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms
this afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall
this afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. Light and variable winds.
Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy until midnight, then becoming mostly
cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly until
midnight. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Humid
with lows in the mid 60s. Northeast winds around 10 mph, becoming
southeast after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.MONDAY...Showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may
produce heavy rainfall. Humid with highs in the mid 70s.
Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Some
thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Lows in the lower 60s.
Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Humid with
highs in the lower 70s. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of
rain 90 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.
Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Lows in the lower
60s. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Locally
heavy rainfall possible. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain
near 100 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Some
thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Lows in the lower 60s.
Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the
lower 70s. Chance of rain 80 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.FRIDAY...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in
the lower 70s. Chance of rain 60 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 50s. 
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain
60 percent. 

$$


Expires:202306251100;;726988
ASUS41 KBTV 251030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN JUN 25 2023

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-251100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    70  68  93 CALM      29.83R TC  21           
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    66  64  93 CALM      29.89R FOG     TC  19   
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     65  64  97 MISG      29.80R TC  18           
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       64  63  97 CALM      29.86R VSB 1/4 TC  18   
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    65  65 100 CALM      29.84R FOG     TC  19   
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    67  67 100 CALM      29.85R TC  19           
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    67  65  93 CALM      29.84R TC  19           
HIGHGATE*        N/A    N/A N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
NEWPORT*       MOCLDY    64  64  99 W3        29.85R TC  18           
BENNINGTON     MOCLDY    66  65  96 CALM      29.85R FOG     TC  19   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     66 N/A N/A W3          N/A  TC  19           
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     64 N/A N/A MISG        N/A  TC  18           
LAKE EDEN*       N/A      0 N/A N/A MISG        N/A  TC -18           
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     61 N/A N/A NW16        N/A  TC  16           

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     70  70 100 CALM        N/A  TC  21           
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     68  66  94 S6          N/A  TC  20           
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     68  68 100 S6          N/A  TC  20           

$$


Expires:No;;717870
FXUS61 KBTV 250712
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
312 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Rainfall will be less widespread today with the main focus of 
showers and thunderstorms being across southern Vermont. Patchy 
smoke is likely to move into northern Vermont and northern New York 
this afternoon and evening before lifting north Monday morning. 
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected on Monday with 
many places seeing between a quarter and a half of an inch of rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 311 AM EDT Sunday...A few rain showers linger across the North
Country early this morning but these should be out of the area prior
to daybreak. With many places across the region seeing in excess of
a half of an inch of rain yesterday coupled with very light
gradient/synoptic winds, we have seen a lot of fog and low stratus
develop thus far. The trend should be to see fog continue to
overspread much of the North Country through the pre-dawn hours and
continue through around 8 or 9 AM before finally lifting and
allowing for pockets of sunshine through the morning hours. Rainfall
isn't expected to be as widespread today given the best forcing will
remain south of the forecast area in the form of a decaying upper
level low across Pennsylvania. This tiny feature will have quite an
interesting impact of us today as it should allow for some scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the southern half of Vermont while
also ushering in smoke from Canadian wildfires across northern
Vermont and northern New York this afternoon.

The location of the decaying low to our south will switch our
surface winds to the north across northern Vermont and northern New
York this afternoon. Taking a look at air quality sensors across
Canada, there are high concentrations of the PM 2.5 which will
advect into the region this afternoon under these northerly winds.
We have been in contact with state partners and will likely be
issuing an air quality alert for northern counties. Stay tuned for
more on the smoke front by 9 AM. Looking back at the rainfall
potential today, the areas that got hit hardest yesterday, northern
New York through northwestern Vermont, should mainly stay on the dry
side today while southern areas that received less rain will be
under the bullseye today. Weak instability should allow for some
decent convection to couple with an anomalously moist air mass to
produce localized amounts in excess of an inch but most places will
likely see less than half of an inch of rain throughout the day.

Rain chances will spread northward tonight into Monday morning as a
piece of shortwave energy lifts north. Models expect the surface
layer to stabilize overnight but some elevated instability could
still yield a few rumbles of thunder through the overnight period.
Rain chances will greatly increase Monday afternoon as a combination
of instability, increasing shear, and increasing upper level
diffluence sets up across the North Country. This should allow for
widespread showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon with the
potential for a few strong thunderstorms given the increased shear
and deep layer ascent. Severe potential looks very unlikely but
given the moist air mass, we will need to watch for potential
precipitation loading in stronger storms that could result in an
isolated wet microburst. The bigger story will be yet another heavy
round of rain with many places seeing between a quarter and half of
an inch of rain with isolated locations easily exceeding an inch of
rain. Rivers still remain low at this time but soils have begun to
saturate so with each subsequent day the potential for areal
flooding slightly increases.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 311 AM EDT Sunday...The next upper level low to cutoff and
grudgingly fill and slide east across our area will be located 
across the Great Lakes spinning shortwaves across the northeast 
interacting with unstable moist air for showers/t-storms. One 
such activity will be exiting/abating our area Monday evening 
with t-storm activity upstream across PA/southern NY likely to 
diminish in intensity yet still bring about some heavy rain 
showers Monday night. Actually some decent deep shear of 35-40+ 
knots moving across may maintain some t-storms overnight.

Trying to time individual shortwaves is difficult and almost foolish
yet it looks like a decent break for Tuesday morning along with some
mid-level drying with PWATS going from over 1.5 inches to between 1-
1.25 inches for some drying and potential sunshine to help heat and
destabilize the atmosphere. Deterministic models/soundings differ
but possibly 500-1000 j/kg with 0-6km 25-30 knot shear and
replenishing PWATS of 1.5+ inches advecting back may lead to
scattered t-storms and will just have to see how unstable for
isolated wind threat, although low.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 311 AM EDT Sunday...The overall big picture as you have heard
already is that it will be wet, not raining all the time but when it
does, some good soakers with increasing flood threat each successive
day.

The aforementioned upper low trudges slowly east through late week
with continued daily chances of showers and a few storms. Again,
best coverage should occur in the afternoon/evening hours with
locally heavy rainfall remaining possible. Some uncertainty arises
by Friday/Saturday as models slow the feature's progression to a
near stall as potential remnants of TS Cindy track northward toward
the Canadian Maritimes. Models show broad agreement on this scenario
despite some differences in timing/strength of the tropical feature.
As such, chances of showers will likely linger through these latter
periods.

The timing of which day/where the heaviest activity will be is
tricky but will likely focus on the existing and filling upper low
and surface features. This would mean more NY/SNE on Tuesday with
very gradual shift eastward through Thursday then more scattered in
nature as the main synoptic support has stalled just east of our
area Fri/Sat.

My concern is the potential interaction with a dual upper jet
structure Tuesday through Thursday. Although the best divergence and
lift are well south of the area, it should lead to organized
convection that will lift north on deep, southerly mid-level flow
and dissipate in intensity as it lifts but still provide some heavy
rainfall with PWATS approaching 2 inches in the development region
but still around 1.5 inches in our area. Saturday we just saw 1-2
inches of rain in a somewhat less organized set-up. Again, the main
threat appears south, but close enough to pay attention.

Any day has a localized flood threat if some training of heavy rain
showers/t-storms with chances increasing Tuesday-Thursday due to
increased ground saturation from previous rainfall and more synoptic
lift/organization but Thursday susceptible as well.

Everyone, but especially decision makers and residents of known poor
drainage, flash flooding areas need to monitor future forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Rainfall is quickly tapering off across the
region but widespread rainfall today is likely to lead to
widespread fog tonight/Sunday morning. Sites like KPBG and KSLK
are already under IFR conditions due to fog and many sites are
expected to follow suit over the next few hours. IFR to LIFR fog
is expected at all terminals except KRUT with the fog lifting
between 12Z and 13Z. Ceilings will quickly improve with all
sites VFR by 16Z. Showers and thunderstorms will largely stay
south of our terminals today so we have no obstruction to vsby
included at this time. However, patchy smoke from wildfires to
the north will reduce visibilities to 4-6 miles across our
northern terminals this afternoon into the evening hours.


Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected through the
upcoming week. Rainfall with be less widespread today given
weaker synoptic forcing with the main focus of showers and
thunderstorms across southern Vermont. Record rainfall seems
unlikely today but we could see potential records through much
of next week given numerous showers and thunderstorms with an
anomalously moist air mass in place. The table below shows
record rainfall for our climate sites for the next week.

Precip Records
Date      KBTV       KMPV       KMSS       KPBG       KSLK
06-25  2.32|1988  1.59|2012  1.43|2017  1.90|1988  3.59|2014
06-26  1.90|2006  2.31|2006  1.20|1983  0.99|1955  1.42|1958
06-27  1.45|1970  0.75|2002  1.04|1970  1.45|1970  1.86|2002
06-28  1.50|1892  1.57|2010  1.32|2010  1.23|2016  2.12|1994
06-29  1.79|2017  2.43|1982  1.90|2017  1.83|2017  2.19|2017
06-30  1.75|1973  3.33|1973  0.80|1958  1.65|1973  1.50|1998
07-01  2.54|1998  1.35|2017  0.88|2017  1.28|1976  1.82|1968

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Clay
CLIMATE...Clay

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