Expires:201507062000;;158393
FPUS51 KBTV 060732
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
329 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015


VTZ006-062000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
329 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.TODAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TONIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN
SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
50 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. 
.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. 

$$


Expires:201507061100;;165467
ASUS41 KBTV 061030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-061100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    60  57  89 CALM      30.13R                  
MONTPELIER     FOG       54  53  97 CALM      30.20S VSB 1/4          
MORRISVILLE    FOG       56  54  93 CALM      30.18R VSB 1/4          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     56  54  93 MISG      30.16R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       53  52  97 CALM      30.20R VSB<1/4          
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      58  58 100 CALM      30.14S FOG              
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     57  52  82 S5        30.17R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       55  54  96 CALM      30.18S VSB 1/4          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      59  58  97 CALM      30.14R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      55  55  99 SW6       30.17R FOG              
BENNINGTON     PTCLDY    54  52  93 CALM      30.17S FOG              
SUTTON*          N/A     54 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     55 N/A N/A W7          N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     64  61  88 SE7         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     64  63  94 SW5         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     63  63 100 S6          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;158710
FXUS61 KBTV 060744
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
344 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY 
TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. CLOUDS 
WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL 
INCREASE...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY OUTSIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL 
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON 
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX PATTERN 
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGE OVER TROF TYPE SCENARIO. STRONG 
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS DIRECTLY 
OVERHEAD ATTM...WITH TRENDS SHOWING MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE STREAMING 
TWD NY. THINKING THIS MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE 
RIDGE THIS MORNING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY 
THIS AFTN. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...WITH 
VALUES BTWN 14 AND 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO 
THE 80S. SFC DWPTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB FROM THE 50S INTO THE 
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MAKING IT FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE TIMING OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY
SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TO SLOW FROPA TIMING BY 3 TO 6 HOURS ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS OUR
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING...WHEN INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE MINIMAL. FIRST...S/W ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. NAM/GFS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS VERY MINIMAL. PWS SURGE BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75"...BUT OVERALL MODEL QPF OUTPUT IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THINKING THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT JET ALOFT AND
WEAKENING SYSTEM INTO STRONG RIDGE WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. STILL SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...BUT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ON TUES
AFTN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL YET GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. THINKING WITH THICK CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...TEMPS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE U70S MTNS TO L80S VALLEYS. MAYBE A FEW MID 80S IF
MORE SUN DEVELOPS THAN EXPECTED. ALSO...SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BTWN 64 AND 68F BY TUES AFTN...WITH SOME VALUES NEAR 70F
POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...MAKING IT FEEL VERY HUMID OUT.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE 
SLV AROUND 00Z WEDS...AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NY AROUND 
06Z...AND INTO THE CPV BY 12Z WEDS. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY 
MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH CAPE VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 
J/KG...AND BEST 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WELL NORTHWEST OF 
OUR CWA...CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LVL TROF. THE BOUNDARY WILL STILL 
BE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PW VALUES...SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN 
POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET 
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST JET 
ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW 
YORK BTWN 00Z AND 06Z...WITH THIS FEATURING WEAKENING OVER VT DURING 
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDS. A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED 
ON TUES...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F CPV. SFC BOUNDARY 
WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY 16Z WEDS...WITH PWS DROPPING QUICKLY BELOW 
1.0" BY 18Z...ASSOCIATED WITH DRYING ALOFT. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST 
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CPV THRU 16Z WEDS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF 
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U 70S DACKS 
TO LOWER 80S VALLEYS. 

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A SLIGHT A
GENERAL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NE CONUS. BASICALLY
...SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND BUILDING INTO SE CONUS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW AND SLIGHT BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS
NECONUS THROUGH UPCOMING WEEK WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL CHANGE AS WE
GET TO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY BACK TO EASTERN NOAM
TROFINESS AGAIN.

SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS/TSTORMS TUE NGT/WED EXITING LATER WEDNESDAY 
WITH ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR 
THU BUT LOOKS LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE...THUS CONTINUING DRY TREND. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES A BIT ANTI-
CYCLONIC LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED BUT SAME 
STORY AS ABOVE THUS STILL LOOKING DRY INTO EARLY WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODELS ON EARLY/LATE SUNDAY...SOME 
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE 
REGION AND WITH SE CONUS RIDGE BASICALLY REBUILDING BACK INTO 
SOUTHERN PLAINS IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ANOTHER TROF ACROSS REGION 
WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG/BR.
MPV/SLK AT GREATEST THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...WITH SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY
IFR BR POSSIBLE AT PBG AS WELL. FOG/BR LIFTS AFTER 12Z MONDAY
MORNING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS REDEVELOPING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE 6-8 KTS AT
RUT) BECOME S/SW 4-9 KNOTS ON MONDAY (EXCEPT SE LAKE BREEZE AT
PBG).

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
06Z TUE - 12Z TUE: VFR. NO SIG WX. 
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR. SCT MVFR TSRA POSSIBLE. 
00Z WED - 00Z THU: VFR/MVFR. SHRA LIKELY. CHANCE TSRA. 
00Z THU - 00Z SAT: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
KMPV/KSLK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...MUCCILLI/SLW
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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