Expires:201806042000;;410049
FPUS51 KBTV 040723
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
321 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018
VTZ006-042000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
321 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018
.TODAY...Showers. Highs in the mid 50s. South winds 15 to 20 mph
with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
.TONIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in the
upper 40s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph until
midnight.
.TUESDAY...A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely
in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 50s. Light and variable winds.
Chance of rain 70 percent.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Light and
variable winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 60s. Light and variable winds.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 50s.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
around 70.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 50.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.
$$
Expires:201806041100;;417597
ASUS41 KBTV 041030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON JUN 04 2018
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-041100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON LGT RAIN 50 42 74 S12 29.84R
MONTPELIER LGT RAIN 45 44 97 S12 29.90S
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 47 42 83 S7 29.86S
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 49 43 80 MISG 29.86R
LYNDONVILLE* DRIZZLE 46 40 79 SE8 29.89R
MIDDLEBURY* RAIN 46 44 93 S6 29.86F
RUTLAND* LGT RAIN 45 43 93 S12G17 29.88F
SPRINGFIELD RAIN 46 45 96 CALM 29.92R FOG
HIGHGATE* LGT RAIN 47 45 90 S5 29.82R
NEWPORT* LGT RAIN 45 44 95 CALM 29.86S
BENNINGTON LGT RAIN 47 43 86 SE5 29.85F FOG
ISLAND POND* N/A 46 N/A N/A E5 N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 45 N/A N/A MISG N/A
UNION VILLAGE* N/A 46 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 36 N/A N/A E29 N/A WCI 23
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 50 46 87 S15G23 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 50 43 76 S36 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 48 43 81 S18 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;411093
FXUS61 KBTV 040752
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
352 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A developing trough of low pressure will produce cool and unsettled
weather across northern New York into Vermont to start the new work
week. A steady rain this morning will taper off to scattered showers
this afternoon with temperatures mainly in the 50s to near 60. More
showers are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday with below normal
temperatures. Drier and warmer weather returns toward the end of the
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 351 AM EDT Monday...Water vapor shows deep layer moisture
with pws btwn 1.25 and 1.50 advecting ahead of negatively
tilted mid/upper level trof across the northern Great Lakes.
This deeper moisture axis will shift east of our cwa this
morning, along with a surface occluded front, as steadier precip
ends by 14z cpv and exits eastern VT by 16z. Well defined dry
slot will move across our cwa, but with plenty of moisture below
700mb, expect mostly cloudy skies to prevail. Potent short wave
energy will rotate around ulvl trof and impact northern NY this
aftn with additional showers. However, thinking areal coverage
of precip will be scattered in nature given the lack of deep
layer moisture. HRRR soundings at KMSS show weak instability
with sfc based cape values of 200 to 400 j/kg and li's around
-2c, so a rumble of thunder is possible, especially given the
strong upper level forcing associated with vort. Best chance
would be slv/western dacks btwn 20z-00z this aftn. Soundings
also support some breezy winds across the slv and parts of
northern ny/cpv this aftn, especially in the aligned sw to ne
slv. Thinking localized gusts btwn 25 and 30 knots looks
reasonable. Temps are tricky today with cooling aloft with trof,
but if some breaks in the overcast develop we could be several
degrees warmer than forecast. Thinking upper 40s to lower 50s
eastern/central vt to mid 50/lower 60s cpv/northern ny,
including the slv.
Tonight into Tuesday...Little overall change in forecast with
regards to large scale synoptic features and associated impacts.
Mid/upper level trof prevails with embedded spokes of energy and
moisture rotate around trof and impact our fa. This will produce
unsettled conditions tonight into Tuesday with temps remaining below
normal. Tuesday will not be a completely washout with many hours of
dry weather expected, however some scattered showers are likely from
time to time. Best concentration of shower activity looks to be
focused over the mountains of central/northern VT as weak upslope
flow develops from vertically stacked low pres over southern Canada.
Progged 850 to 925mb thermal profiles change very little from today,
so highs once again mid 50s to lower/mid 60s for Tuesday with lows
tonight mainly in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Little diurnal change with
clouds and winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 339 AM EDT Monday...Mid-level low should become an open
wave with trough axis expected to translate sewd across NY/VT
Tuesday night and eventually toward the New England coast by 12Z
Wednesday. Should see scattered rain showers (40-60% PoPs)
associated with this feature, with shower activity gradually
becoming more focused across s-central VT toward the latter half
of Tuesday night. N-NW flow develops in the wake of the trough
by early Wednesday morning, with partial clearing expected from
north to south. May see just a chance of a lingering shower
across central/ern VT during the daylight hrs Wednesday (PoPs
around 20%). Lows Tuesday night expected to be in the mid 40s,
with highs on Wednesday in the low-mid 60s.
Generally in northwesterly 700-500mb flow Wednesday night, Thursday,
and Thursday night. An embedded shortwave trough and associated weak
sfc cold front may bring isold/sct showers (20-30% PoPs) as it moves
across the North Country late Thursday or Thursday night. Any
rainfall should be relatively light (generally 0.10" or less). Highs
on Thursday should reach the upr 60s to lower 70s, with overnight
lows in the low-mid 50s for Thursday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 339 AM EDT Monday...The 00Z ECMWF and 00Z GFS are generally
consistent Friday and Saturday building high pressure across
the region. Should see generally fair and seasonable conditions,
with valley highs in the low-mid 70s Friday and Saturday, with
lows Friday night ranging from the mid 40s in the
Adirondacks/Northeast Kingdom, to the mid 50s in the Champlain
Valley. The 00Z NWP guidance suite begins to diverge Saturday
night into Sunday. The 00Z ECMWF has a more robust mid- level
trough and more northern track to sfc frontal zone suggesting
widespread rainfall Saturday night into Sunday across northern
NY and Vermont. The 00Z GFS portrays a weaker system that is
suppressed to the south. The GFS has shown better run-to-run
consistency to this point, so kept PoPs in the 20-30% range -
highest south. Highs on Sunday currently expected in the low-mid
70s, but the ECMWF suggests temperatures could be several
degrees cooler than the official forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Crnt obs show a mix of vfr/mvfr with band
of light to moderate rain approaching the cpv. Expect mainly
mvfr cigs to develop with periods of 3-5sm vis in moderate rain
btwn 06-12z this morning. Southeast upslope flow at mpv will
result in lower cigs developing by sunrise with some ifr
possible. Also, watching the potential for ifr cigs at mss as
winds shift to the southwest and low level moisture from lake
ontario works up the slv. Rain should taper off from west to
east btwn 10z-15z today, with additional scattered showers
redeveloping btwn 18z-00z today. Mainly mvfr cigs prevail on
Monday. Southeast winds this morning at 5 to 15 knots with
localized gusts to 25 knots possible at rutland, will shift to
the southwest on Monday.
Outlook...
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Taber
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