Expires:201506292000;;825481
FPUS51 KBTV 290806
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
402 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015


VTZ006-292000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
402 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.TODAY...CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...
BECOMING WEST AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN
40 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY DENSE FOG. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. WARMER WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
80 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. 
.INDEPENDENCE DAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. 

$$


Expires:201506291100;;831474
ASUS41 KBTV 291030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-291100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    56  53  90 S6        29.76R FOG              
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    51  49  92 S7        29.80R FOG              
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    54  51  90 S3        29.78R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     54  49  83 MISG      29.76R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    51  49  93 SE3       29.79R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    56  56 100 CALM      29.77R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    54  46  76 CALM      29.79R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    52  50  93 S5        29.80R                  
HIGHGATE*      HVY RAIN  54  54  98 CALM      29.75R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    51  49  93 S3        29.77S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    56  54  93 CALM      29.80R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     50 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     50 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     45 N/A N/A NW13        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     57  55  94 S10         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     57  55  94 SW13        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     55  54  94 S2          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;826631
FXUS61 KBTV 290827
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
427 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION, LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WILL TREND TOWARDS DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR
FLOODING. DRIER CONDITIONS DO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT MONDAY...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN THE TO
REGION YESTERDAY CONTINUING TO PULL NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. WHILE WATER VAPOR SHOWS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT EXITING TO
OUR EAST AND WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ADVECTING BACK INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST, RADAR RETURNS ARE VERY SPOTTY AND LIGHT. WINDS
ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR NOW, BUT EXPECT A SHIFT TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
IN SOME TERRAIN DRIVEN SHOWERS, BUT OVERALL WE'RE LOOKING AT A
GENERALLY DRY BUT SEASONABLY COOL DAY. MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE
WAY TO SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON, BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT MONDAY...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS GOING CALM AND SKIES GOING PARTLY
CLOUDY. DON'T EXPECT US TO CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY AS WE REMAIN IN A
GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, BUT WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL AND
CALM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IT'S A GOOD BET FOR SOME LOCALLY DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAVORED VALLEY LOCALES. THE TREND OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUES AS WELL TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

CONDITIONS BECOME UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AS THE FIRST OF
TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEK
COMES AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE ATTENDING WARM FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
LIFTS THROUGH, BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER MEAGER SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY REAL STRONG STORMS. TEMPS FINALLY RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO +10-12C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN
THE 70S. WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER
TUESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BUT
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY. FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT KEEPING TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. BTV CWA WILL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY WITH PWATS RISING TO AROUND 1.5" AND GROWING
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS CAPES 800-1200
J/KG DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY ALONG WITH LI'S AROUND -4 AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS. AS IT HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS, GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT WHICH WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
INSTABILITY, BUT IT APPEARS THERE WILL LIKELY BE A WINDOW FOR
STRONGER STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS WHICH
COULD CREATE SOME HYDRO CONCERNS DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND HIGH
WATER FLOWS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 419 AM EDT MONDAY...MAINTENANCE OF INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL RESULT IN CONTINUATION OF SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND EPISODES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN ASSOCIATION WITH MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTATION IS FOR MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO BE EXITING THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS)
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE A DRIER NW FLOW PATTERN
SET UP BRIEFLY PROVIDING FOR A GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH POTENTIALLY SHIFTS EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY
(SATURDAY) PER 00Z ECMWF. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
00Z GFS IS SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE AND
SUGGESTS GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE DAY
SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED 30-40 POPS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
SATURDAY AFTN AT THIS POINT...AS 00Z ECMWF HAS BETTER CONTINUITY
WITH PREVIOUS ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE MID-UPR 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...AND
GENERALLY LOW 60S FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AREAS OF DRIZZLE/MIST WILL PREVAIL AT THE
NORTH COUNTRY TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING AS
UPPER LOW TRANSLATES NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. IT APPEARS IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MSS/SLK...WITH MAINLY MVFR-VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AS
WELL...THOUGH THEY SHOULD BE BRIEF IN DURATION BASED ON 0530Z
RADAR TRENDS. CONDITIONS TREND VFR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH
LIGHT (5-8KT) W TO NW WINDS. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO
PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMATION AFTER 05-06Z...WITH LIFR ANTICIPATED AT
MPV/SLK/MSS AND POSSIBLE AT THE REMAINING TAF LOCATIONS GIVEN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS. 

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
BRINGS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. INTERVALS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. TRENDING DRIER BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT COULD SEE NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THURSDAY AM AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY AM...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...IT'S BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WET JUNE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ONE MONTHLY RECORD HAS ALREADY BEEN SET
AT MONTPELIER, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN LATE TUESDAY, THE
RECORDS AT BURLINGTON AND MOUNT MANSFIELD WILL BE APPROACHED.

MONTPELIER HAS BROKEN ITS MONTHLY JUNE RAINFALL RECORD. AS OF 5
PM, 8.92 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN IN JUNE 2015 AT MONTPELIER.
THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 8.36 INCHES SET IN 2013.

A SUMMARY OF CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS FOR BURLINGTON AND MT.
MANSFIELD, AND WHAT IT WILL TAKE TO BREAK THE JUNE RECORD FOLLOWS
BELOW. NOTE THAT CITED RAINFALL VALUES REFLECT AMOUNTS AS OF
MIDNIGHT 06/29.

AT 8.62 INCHES, BURLINGTON NEEDS 1.30 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 9.22 INCHES SET BACK 
IN 1922.

AT 14.87 INCHES, MT. MANSFIELD NEEDS 0.41 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN TO BREAK THE JUNE RAINFALL RECORD OF 15.28 INCHES SET IN
1998.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
CLIMATE...TEAM BTV

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