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December 2004, Week 1

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Subject:
From:
Scott Braaten <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Mon, 6 Dec 2004 20:31:08 -0500
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On Mon, 6 Dec 2004 18:45:43 -0500, Mike Bernstein <[log in to unmask]>
wrote:

>According to the NWS interpretation of the latest model runs, the storm
>track is trending further south - about 150 miles on the latest ETA.  This
>is good news, as it means less significant warming for VT.  I wouldn't be
>surprised if a place like Jay never does get to all rain.  Regardless, it
>looks like there will probably be a net positive in terms of snowcover
>coming out of tomorrow's system with the looming possibility of a coastal
>low for Friday into Saturday.  Me likey.

Although the storm is going to be slightly further south, its still going
to be far enough north for 90% of Vermont to change to all rain at some
point.  I do think with the warming aloft it might create a situation with
rain at the highest elevations followed by freezing rain or sleet lower
down depending on how deep the cold layer is.

Anyway for those of you who are interested in this...here's a cool website
that will show what the two main American models (ETA and AVN/GFS) are
showing as far as precip type.  You can also find accumulated precip in
the form of snow, sleet, and freezing rain.
http://www.coolwx.com/ptype/

With the low later in the week...could be snow just as easily rain.  The
Euro and UKMET models were showing a coastal low yesterday but now have it
moving up west of New England again.  The GFS is having trouble with the
northern stream energy being too strong.  And it shows phasing in tonights
18z run but looking more into that run, although it looks good, I think I
could see how the GFS could go from that to a storm coming up west of New
England too.

We'll have to see...should be interesting either way.
-Scott

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