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May 2020, Week 4

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Subject:
From:
Wesley Alan Wright <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Tue, 26 May 2020 06:50:03 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
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Expires:202005262000;;775477
FPUS51 KBTV 261037
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
634 AM EDT Tue May 26 2020


VTZ006-262000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
634 AM EDT Tue May 26 2020

.TODAY...Mostly sunny. Warmer with highs in the mid 80s. Light
and variable winds. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear until midnight, then becoming partly
cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. South winds around 10 mph until
midnight, becoming light and variable. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. Light and
variable winds. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Southwest
winds around 10 mph. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Southwest winds
around 10 mph. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 60s. 
.FRIDAY...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in
the lower 80s. Chance of rain 60 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Lows in
the lower 60s. Chance of rain 80 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 70s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 60. 

$$


Expires:202005261100;;775376
ASUS41 KBTV 261030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-261100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      66  58  75 S5        30.15R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    59  58  96 S3        30.23R                  
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY    53  52  96 CALM      30.19R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     63  58  83 MISG      30.18R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    61  57  88 E3        30.22R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      60  58  90 SE3       30.18R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      58  57  97 SE12      30.20R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    57  55  93 CALM      30.21R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      68  62  81 S6        30.14R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      59  59 100 S3        30.19R                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      57  55  93 CALM      30.19R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     63 N/A N/A S2          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     61 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     55 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     61 N/A N/A W21         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     63  59  88 S12         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     61  57  88 S20         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A    N/A N/A N/A S8          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;775917
FXUS61 KBTV 261045
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
645 AM EDT Tue May 26 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A very warm airmass will develop across the North Country today and 
continue through mid week. Temperatures will soar into the mid 80s 
to lower 90s for both Tuesday and Wednesday, with just a slight 
chance of a shower or thunderstorm. The chances for showers and 
thunderstorms increase late Thursday into Friday, as a surface cold 
front impacts the region. Some localized heavy downpours are 
possible with the stronger convection on Friday. Much cooler and 
drier weather is anticipated for the weekend as strong high pressure 
building into the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 634 AM EDT Tuesday...Early morning vis shows llvl clouds
east of the Green Mtns acrs central/eastern VT, which should
burn off in the next 1 to 3 hours. These clouds might slow hrly
rate of sfc heating this morning, but should warm quickly this
aftn under mostly sunny skies. Did some tweaking to hrly temps,
dwpts and sky grids, otherwise rest of fcst in good shape. Still
thinking aftn highs mid 80s to lower 90s most locations with
south winds 5 to 15 mph. 

Previous discussion below:
The near term concerns will be increasing heat/humidity, along 
with chances for showers/storms. Water vapor with RAP analysis 
shows building 700 to 500mb heights acrs our cwa, along with a 
large scale area of subsidence. Better moisture and associated 
embedded 5h vorts are located over southern Canada in the fast 
westerly flow aloft on northern periphery of mid/upper lvl 
ridge. Large scale forcing is minimal today acrs our fa, along 
with soundings showing deep dry layer btwn 850mb and 300mb, 
which should limit areal coverage of convection. NAM3km and 
BTV4km continue to show a few isolated showers possible in their
respective composite reflectivity fields, developing from llvl 
lake breeze convergence and lift provided by trrn, especially 
acrs the eastern Dacks. In addition, sfc based CAPE parameters 
look to be around 1500 j/kg, helping to support convective 
updrafts if anything can fire. Have continued with previous 
couple of days thinking and just mentioned 15 to 25% chc acrs 
the eastern/central Dacks. Progged 925mb temps in the 21-23c 
range support highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s acrs our cwa, 
while dwpts values climb into the l/m 60s most locations. This 
will create heat index values in the 87F to 93F range today, 
with warmest values in the urban areas of the CPV/SLV. Another 
mild night anticipated with dry conditions prevailing on 
southerly winds. Expect lows ranging from the l/m 50s NEK/deeper
valleys of the dacks to near 70f CPV urban areas.

On Wednesday, fcst challenge will be potential for showers/storms
and associated areal coverage, followed by very warm temps. Large
scale synoptic pattern shows very little change with mid/upper lvl
ridge anchored acrs the Mid Atlantic/NE Conus. Upstairs forcing and
moisture will be limited again, but high resolution models are
slightly more aggressive with development of convection along lee
side trough/lake breezy boundary on Weds aftn. BTV4km and NAM3km
show sharp llvl convergence btwn the two mesoscale features, along
with building CAPE profiles in the 1800 to 2400 j/kg. Have bumped
pops into the chc (30 to 40%) range acrs most of northern NY and
schc (15 to 25%) for mtns of central/northern VT on Weds aftn. Given
the large CAPE profiles in localized soundings a few stronger
convective elements are possible with very localized gusty
winds/brief down pours. However, overall threat is limited and will
not mention in fcst at this time. Progged 925mb temps remain in the
22-24c range again supporting highs 87F to 93F acrs our cwa, 
with warmest values acrs the central/northern CPV. Slightly 
cooler temps wl prevail near Lake Champlain with values in the 
lower/mid 80s associated with well pronounced lake breezy 
boundary. Once again heat index values range in the upper 80s to
l/m 90s, just shy of the 95f degree heat advisory threshold.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 403 AM EDT Tuesday...After a hot day on Wednesday, a pocket of
slightly cooler air advects into the North Country overnight, along
with some relatively drier air. With the steady south winds and
occasional mid-level cloudiness ahead of a weak shortwave anticipate
our area will have another night in the 60s, though. Thursday
afternoon, temperatures at 925 hPa are still around 20-21 C, but
there should be greater cloud cover and heights will be falling as a
shortwave currently impacting south Florida lifts into our region
during the day. With that, max temps should top out in the lower to
mid 80s for our region. Scattered showers or light rain develop
later in the day, as warm, moist advection ahead of the shortwave
trough will provide forcing for ascent, along with subtle
deformation along the vort. The warming temperatures at 700mb will
result in a modest mid-level inversion that should preclude
thunderstorm development, but an isolated rumble of thunder cannot
be ruled out.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 403 AM EDT Tuesday...Light precipitation will gradually lift
north and east overnight, dropping a few hundredths across portions
of our area. A stronger upper trough digging southeast from the
Hudson Bay in Canada will follow Friday into Saturday. Southwesterly
flow will accelerate as pressure gradients tighten, and our offshore
upper level high will begin to deamplify and shift east, placing us
at the end of a Gulf- of-Mexico airmass. Our PWATs climb to 1.6"-1.9"
across our region Friday and 925 hPa temps will rise to about 22 C.
A prefrontal trough should amplify along a lee-side trough along the
Adirondacks and initiate convection by late Friday morning/early
afternoon. CAPE values should be around 1000 J/kg and a
strengthening upper jet will provide effective ventilation for
developing convection. 0-6km bulk shear of 40-50kts could even allow
for some organization. Brief training of convection will be possible
based on initial depictions of meso-beta element vectors, which will
need to be watched due to the anomalously moist air mass in place.
Anticipate numerous showers and a few thunderstorms that will
coalesce as it exits the state, or does so downstream, into some
kind of linear structure. More temporal/spatial details to come as
we get in the range of CAM models over the coming days.

Upper shortwave and main frontal axis will shift southeastward
Saturday. A few scattered showers could remain on Saturday along
northwest facing slopes from orographic lift as temps cool aloft
while surface temps warm during the day. Saturday's highs will be in
the 70s with some areas near 80 in the Connecticut River valley.
Bulk of the cooler air will settle for the start of next week with
highs in the mid to upper 60s and lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Return flow appears to become re-established sometime next week, so
we will be relatively dry as well.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Expecting LIFR cigs to quickly improve
to VFR conditions at MPV by 13z. Otherwise, building sfc high
pres both aloft and at the sfc will result in VFR conditions at
all taf sites. Light winds, combined with clear skies and temps
reaching cross over values, may produce some localized patchy
fog again at MSS/SLK and PBG with IFR/LIFR. The combination of
low cigs and vis could impact MPV aft 06z and have mentioned in
TAF. Otherwise, south winds 5 to 15 knots prevail today, before
becoming light trrn driven overnight. 

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
High temperatures near 90 degrees are forecast Tuesday through
Thursday this week. Here is a look at record high temperatures,
and year of occurrence, for the May 26th through May 28th 
period:

Date     KBTV     KMPV     K1V4     KMSS     KPBG     KSLK
05-26  92|2010  87|2010  89|2010  96|2010  94|2010  90|2010
05-27  91|2016  88|1960  86|2016  89|2016  94|2016  88|1914
05-28  92|1978  88|1978  90|2016  90|2016  90|1972  91|1911

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Taber
CLIMATE...Banacos

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