Expires:202207052000;;719008
FPUS51 KBTV 051042
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
637 AM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022
VTZ018-052000-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
637 AM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022
.TODAY...Cloudy. A chance of showers this morning, then showers
likely this afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s. South winds around
10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.TONIGHT...Cloudy. Showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms
until midnight, then a chance of showers after midnight. Lows in
the upper 50s. South winds around 10 mph, becoming west after
midnight. Chance of rain 80 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning, then clearing. Highs
in the lower 70s. North winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Northeast
winds around 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Southwest winds
around 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 70s.
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s.
Highs in the upper 60s.
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...Clear. Lows around 50. Highs in the
lower 70s.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
$$
Expires:202207051100;;718639
ASUS41 KBTV 051030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2022
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-051100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON MOCLDY 59 54 83 CALM 30.05F
MONTPELIER MOCLDY 56 51 84 CALM 30.13S
MORRISVILLE MOCLDY 52 50 93 CALM 30.09S
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 52 49 89 MISG 30.09S
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 52 50 92 CALM 30.12S
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 57 55 91 CALM 30.07F
RUTLAND* LGT RAIN 59 53 80 SE7 30.10S
SPRINGFIELD MOCLDY 58 55 90 CALM 30.11S
HIGHGATE* FAIR 60 59 96 SE3 30.04S
NEWPORT* FAIR 55 52 92 SW5 30.09S
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 60 55 83 CALM 30.09F
ISLAND POND* N/A 48 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 50 N/A N/A MISG N/A
LAKE EDEN* N/A 54 N/A N/A CALM N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 59 N/A N/A CALM N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 57 52 82 S20 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;719389
FXUS61 KBTV 051047
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
647 AM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A developing area of low pressure over the Great Lakes will bring
scattered light showers to the region this morning, followed by
round of more moderate showers and some embedded thunder this
afternoon through midnight. Drier weather returns for Wednesday and
Thursday, with a chances for showers on Friday. Another beautiful
weekend is expected with sunny skies and seasonal temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 647 AM EDT Tuesday...Forecast is good shape at this time
with the only change made was to delay timing of chance PoPs
across the St. Lawrence Valley by a couple of hours based on
latest radar trends.
Previous Discussion from 322 AM...
Overall no major changes made to the forecast through Wednesday
with the highlight being a developing area of low pressure over
the Great Lakes this morning which will dive into central NY
this afternoon and off the New England coastal waters tonight.
While there remains some differences in model output on the
exact timing and intensity of rainfall, consensus is for 2
batches of rain to move through the forecast area, the first of
which being very disjointed and very light along the leading
edge of a weak frontal boundary and enhanced area of PWATs >
1.5". Upstream obs show precipitation along this boundary
falling out of a mid- level cloud deck with no surface
visibility restrictions and accumulations generally 0.1" or
less. The second and more substantial batch comes later this
afternoon as the surface low shifts into western NY and on the
nose of a 40-50kt 850mb jet which tracks through the southern
Adirondacks and central/southern VT. Little convective
development is expected as the best instability will be south of
the region, but a little MUCAPE up to 250 J/kg may provide a
few rumbles across central/southern portions of the region.
After midnight, precipitation will diminish from west to east as the
surface low pulls offshore and much drier air at the mid-levels
begins to work into the region. Storm total rainfall amounts will
vary widely, especially if any convective elements develop, but
basin averages will likely be around 0.5" with some higher amounts
possible. The trailing cold front and some additional shortwave
energy don't pass through until closer to 12Z Wednesday so there
could be a few lingering showers across northern areas in the
morning, especially across the higher terrain under severely blocked
flow, but overall rapid clearing is expected through the day with
clear skies developing by sunset.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 322 AM EDT Tuesday...West to northwest flow aloft prevails as
1016mb high pres from central Canada builds into our fa. This wl
result in dry conditions with comfortable temps. Have noted guidance
trending cooler for lows on Weds Night/Thurs morning associated with
mainly clear skies and light winds. These conditions should support
lows in the l/m 40s NEK/SLK to mid 50s urban islands of the CPV. A
few spots in the upper 30s definitely possible in coldest mtn
valleys on Thurs morning. Otherwise...expecting mostly sunny and
mild conditions on Thurs with some mid/upper lvl debris clouds in
the westerly flow aloft crossing our cwa from time to time. Progged
925mb temps 18 to 20C, support highs very similar to the 4th of
July, with values in the mid 70s to lower 80s in the warmest valley
cities. Did lower aftn dewpoints into the mid 40s to lower 50s,
which is toward the 10% NBM values and supported by soundings
indicating mixing of drier air around 850mb toward the sfc.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 322 AM EDT Tuesday...Mid/upper lvl trof wl prevail acrs the ne
conus into the upcoming weekend with only window for unsettled wx on
Friday. Still some uncertainty on potential phasing of southern and
northern stream s/w's and how robust sfc low pres becomes. Latest
00z ECMWF is more aggressive with phasing energy and sfc low pres
development and associated qpf acrs our cwa, while NAM/GFS shows a
split system wl minimal impacts. For now have continued with
schc/low chance pops as modeling and tracking potential convective
induced s/w energy and low pres is challenging at day 4. However
expecting the better moisture and instability to remain south of our
fa, given west- northwest flow at 700 to 500mb, helping to deflect
the heat/humidity. By the weekend guidance in very good agreement
showing another Canadian high pres building into our cwa from
central Canada. This wl result in dry conditions with cool nights
and mild days. Have lowered mins on Sat and Sunday nights, based on
position of sfc high pres and potential for clear skies and light
winds. In addition, GFS/ECMWF show progged 850mb temps anomalies of
4 to 5C below climo normals on Sat. Lows upper 30s to l/m 50s looks
reasonable with coolest values in the NEK/SLK region and warmest in
the urban heat islands of the CPV. Highs generally in the mid 70s to
near 80F for the weekend. Next system approaches sometime early next
week with chance pops in the fcst, as temps climb back into the
upper 70s to mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...VFR conditions look to prevail through
much of the day until this afternoon where a mix of MVFR/VFR is
expected. An approaching frontal boundary to our south will
spread scattered light rain showers into the region this morning,
with areal coverage increasing this afternoon through evening
where periods of MVFR visibility will be likely. Ceilings should
remain generally VFR through the afternoon until lowering to
MVFR in the more moderate rain, and after the rain subsides in
the evening further lowering to IFR is likely at KSLK. Light and
variable winds this morning will become south at 5-10 knots
between 12-14Z with gusts up to 18 knots possible, especially at
KBTV and KRUT. Brief low level wind shear is also like at KMPV
and KRUT from 02-06Z as winds aloft increase to 30-40kts.
Outlook...
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Lahiff
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