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May 2020, Week 5

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Subject:
From:
Wesley Alan Wright <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Sun, 31 May 2020 06:50:02 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
Parts/Attachments:
text/plain (222 lines)
Expires:202005312000;;032748
FPUS51 KBTV 311042
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
638 AM EDT Sun May 31 2020


VTZ006-312000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
639 AM EDT Sun May 31 2020

.TODAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. Northwest winds
15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain showers after
midnight. Lows in the upper 30s. West winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance
of rain 20 percent. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. A slight chance of rain showers in the
afternoon. Highs in the upper 50s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Chance of rain 20 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 40. Southwest winds
around 10 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. West winds around
10 mph. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 40s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 60s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 50s. Chance of
rain 60 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the lower 70s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows around 50. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the lower 70s. 

$$


Expires:202005311100;;032488
ASUS41 KBTV 311030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-311100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    47  38  71 NW10      30.05R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    43  37  79 NW10      30.04R                  
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  43  39  86 N9        30.03R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     46  39  76 MISG      29.97R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   MOCLDY    41  37  86 W8        30.00S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    46  37  73 N8        30.05R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    46  41  82 NW8       30.02R                  
SPRINGFIELD    PTCLDY    50  37  61 VRB7      29.99R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      46  42  88 NW3       30.06R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    40  38  93 NW10      30.02R                  
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     47  37  68 VRB5      30.01R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     41 N/A N/A NW10        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     41 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     41 N/A N/A NW1         N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     36 N/A N/A W38G52      N/A  WCI  21          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     46  41  81 W9G22       N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     46  39  76 NW20        N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;025837
FXUS61 KBTV 310744
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
344 AM EDT Sun May 31 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler today into early next week. A warm front will usher in 
moderating temperatures from Tuesday onward. Scattered shower 
activity will be possible as several weak systems propagate 
through the region through the middle of the week. The highest
chances are expected on Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Dry
weather is then expected the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 336 AM EDT Sunday...Cool conditions expected today under
northwest flow at 10 to 20 mph, with periods of 25 mph gusts. A few
sprinkles continuing to move across Vermont at this time. At 850 hPa
the 0 C degree isotherm has made it through northern New York with
Whiteface summit reporting a temperature of 30 F. Expect most to
wake up to temperatures in the 40s. A longwave trough will be
positioned over our area with a couple weak embedded shortwave
troughs moving across in the northwest flow. The question for today
will be whether we can warm above 60 degrees. Latest forecast update
only has a few spots over the southernmost areas reaching 60s.

During the overnight hours, we begin with mostly clear skies and
calming winds. However, during as we approach midnight, pocket of
mid to high level clouds will begin to stream overhead. The main
reason this will be important is the frost potential. For now, have
left out the mention within grids. The most likely area for frost
would be portions of the Northeast Kingdom. Along with some of those
increasing clouds could be some light scattered showers.
Precipitation will struggle to measure though given how dry it will
be, though. Monday will be a few degrees warmer with the second of
the embedded troughs moving across. This feature will have a bit
more moisture to work with, but still marginal for anything more
than a few hundredths. Greatest chances will be over Northern New
York mid to late afternoon into the evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 336 AM EDT Sunday...Weak surface ridge in place across the
North Country should maintain dry conditions across VT and nrn NY
for Monday night. A shortwave trough traversing a developing NW-SE
oriented warm frontal zone may result in scattered light rain
showers for Tuesday, but best frontal forcing remains south and west
of the forecast area. Should mainly see an increase in mid-level
clouds Tuesday, with the highest PoPs for -SHRA across the
Adirondacks and St. Lawrence County (40-50%). Temperatures will be
moderating a bit during the short-term period. Looking for lows
mainly in the 40s for Monday night, except upper 30s possible across
Vermont's Northeast Kingdom. Mainly upper 60s for highs Tuesday
across the St. Lawrence Valley and Adirondacks with greater cloud
cover expected. Some VT valleys should reach the lower 70s for highs
Tuesday afternoon. Winds will be relatively light thru the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 336 AM EDT Sunday...A persistent northwesterly mid-level flow
pattern should yield seasonable early June temperatures (highs
generally in the 70s) and low humidity levels for most of the long-
term forecast period. Will see several chances for shower activity,
but shortwave troughs embedded in fast mid-level flow result in
considerable timing uncertainties and continued differences in NWP
guidance suite. For now, appears best chances for showers will be
Tuesday night, and again Wednesday night (PoPs 50-60%). All in all,
precipitation that does occur should be relatively light and not
anticipating any hazardous weather thru the period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...Currently MVFR due to ceilings of
1500-2500ft with localized pockets of IFR and VFR. Isolated
showers occurring as well with only minimal impacts to
visibility. Clouds scatter out and showers dissipate after 09Z 
and VFR conditions will prevail. Steady northwest winds around 8
to 14 knots with 18 to 23 knot gusts continue through about 09Z
as well. However, winds are expected to pick up again after 
14Z. After 00Z Monday, winds become more westerly around 5 
knots. A weak system will produce scattered shower activity near
KMSS and KSLK around 01Z-05Z Monday.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake winds have been periodically gusting to 30 knots behind a
cold front pushing south. Cooling temperatures aloft should 
cause favorable mixing conditions over the lake and should allow
these winds to continue during the early to mid-morning. After 
9 AM, pressure gradients start to relax and the stronger lake 
winds will begin to slowly subside.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Haynes
MARINE...BTV

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