Expires:200603150015;;198480
FPUS51 KBTV 141001
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
500 AM EST TUE MAR 14 2006


VTZ006>008-010-017-018-150015-
LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...
MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
500 AM EST TUE MAR 14 2006

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL MID MORNING. A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING ON. A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO 1 INCH. 
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S EARLY...THEN FALLING INTO THE MID 20S 
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
60 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO
2 INCHES. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 17.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS 10 TO 15. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 

$$




   REFRESH(900 sec): [1]http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html

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FXUS61 KBTV 141041
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
540 AM EST TUE MAR 14 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS WITH SOME RAIN
SHOWER FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. HAVE PUT A WIND
ADVISORY TODAY FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AS
WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AS STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS
SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS.

HAVE KEPT THE FLOOD WATCH UP FOR NOW AS RAINFALL STILL OCCURRING
ACROSS THE REGION AND THE MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
SOME SNOW MELT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL SO FAR
HAS NOT BEEN AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED...AND
DAYSHIFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO REEVALUATE WHETHER A FLOOD WATCH WILL
STILL BE NEEDED. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS SOME LAKE
EFFECT IS POSSIBLE. WILL ALSO KEEP IN A MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED AND WILL FALL
DURING THE DAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EARLY THIS
MORNING. HAVE WORDED FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

COLDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HAVE PUT IN A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS OR SNOW LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC TONIGHT AND MOVE
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS AT KMPV THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
TO VFR AT KBTV...KSLK...KMSS. FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THRU 12-13Z
KBTV-KMPV WITH VIS DOWN TO MVFR. AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP WITH
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT...EXPECT S WINDS TO INCREASE AT KMPV AND
CLEAR OUT LIFR DECK TO VFR. STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT KMSS
WHERE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY ORIENTED SW TO NE INLINE WITH WIND
GRADIENT. G40KT FORECAST FOR KMSS FROM MIDDAY ON.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH FOR VTZ002>012-016>019 UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087 FROM 9 AM TUESDAY
     TO 7 PM TUESDAY.
  ...FLOOD WATCH FOR NYZ028-031-034-035 UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...HANSON









FXUS61 KBTV 132123
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
420 PM EST MON MAR 13 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SEVERAL CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FLOODING
TONITE/TUE...PSBL TSRA TONITE...AND GRADIENT WINDS WHICH MAY APRCH
ADVISORY CRITERIA TUE INTO WED.

LOW PRESSURE MOVG SLOWLY THRU CENTRAL GRTLKS THRU TONIGHT. WRMFNT
STILL SOUTH OF FA ATTM...BUT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO FA OVERNIGHT.
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUES. FIRST AREA OF
OVERRUNNING RAIN IS EXITING FA ATTM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER
TO ONE HALF INCH WERE COMMON...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO AN
INCH. A BRIEF SLOT OF MSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOWS...BUT ANOTHER
LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND SCT THUNDER NOW OVERSPREADING WRN NY AND WILL
BE ARRIVING THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PCPN OVERNIGHT
WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE PCPN TOTALS...BUT EXPECT MANY LOCATIONS TO
SEE ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN...WITH LOCALIZED AMTS OF 2 INCHES PSBL.
THESE AMOUNTS COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS/STREAMS OVERNIGHT INTO TUES...THUS FLOOD
WATCH ISSUED FOR MUCH OF FA. IN ADDITION...SOME ICE REMAINS ON FAR
NRN RIVERS...SO POTENTIAL OF ICE JAMS STILL EXISTS ON A FEW RIVERS.
NEW YORK PORTION OF OUR FA RMNS IN SLITE RISK TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT IN
MENTION OF TSRA FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION...BUT RISK OF SEVERE APPEARS
MINIMAL...WITH GREATER THREAT FURTHER SOUTH.

DURING TUESDAY...COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHES EAST OF FA DURING
MORNING. MUCH OF FA WILL START THE DAY ON DRY SIDE...WITH LINGERING
RAIN ERN ZONES ENDING MID MORNING. WIDELY SCT RAIN SHWRS ACRS FA
FOR REST OF MORNING...THEN CAA AND WRAPAROUND MSTR WILL RETURN
DURING PM AND AT NITE CHANGING RAIN SHWRS TO SNOW SHWRS. SOME
ACUMULATING SNOW PSBL TUES NITE...MAINLY ACRS ADRNDKS/ST LWR VLY
(WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO) AND ACRS HIR TRRN OF NW
VT. IN ADDITION...WINDS EXPECTED TO APRCH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACRS NRN
NY TUES WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED...ALONG WITH
PSBL GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

AS CLOSED LOW MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY EAST ACRS QUEBEC INTO CANADIAN
MARITIMES WED THRU THURS...GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH
THE THREAT OF SNOW SHWRS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIR TRRN.
ACCUMULATING SNOWS EXPECTED OVER UPSLOPE FAVORED PORTIONS OF ADRNDKS
AND NRN VT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
REGION WILL BE UNDER N/NW FLOW FOR MUCH OF EXTENDED PERIOD. CUTOFF
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER EASTERN CANADA/MARITIMES DURING THIS
TIME...PINWHEELING PRECIP/CLDS DOWN OVER FA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST WILL REINFORCE THIS...WHICH MEANS CHANCE/SL CHANCE
FOR -SW...W/ HIR POPS IN NE VT. MDLS HAVE FRI SYSTEM STAYING TO OUR
SOUTH...BUT GETS CAUGHT UP IN CIRCULATION OVER EASTERN CANADA LATE
IN WEEKEND...AND MVS SOUTH TOWARDS CWA BY MON. HAVE GONE W/ INCR IN
POPS TO SHOW THIS SYSTEM APPROACHING AREA...WITH HIR POPS STILL IN
NORTHERN CWA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH/LOW SHOULD
KEEP WINDS UP DURING ALMOST ENTIRE TIME. HAVE GONE MOSTLY W/ HPC
GUIDANCE BUT HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS...AND INCR WINDS A BIT TO REFLECT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
COND WILL RANGE FROM VFR DOWN TO LOW IFR AT TIMES W/ FRNT MVG THRU
THE FA. CEILINGS WILL BE VAR DURING THIS TIME W/ KSLK/KMPV DOWN BLW
OVC010 AT TIMES. PSSBL 02Z-07Z -TSRA. WINDS MAINLY VAR/LGT...BUT
WILL SLOWLY SWITCH SW THEN WEST AND INCR 10 TO 20 KTS BETWEEN
12Z-18Z. KMSS TAF NIL DUE TO WIND SENSOR DOWN. WILL ISSUE TAF WHEN
SITE UP FULLY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH FOR VTZ002>012-016>019 UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FOR NYZ028-031-034-035 UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN









   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

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