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April 2014, Week 1

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Subject:
From:
"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Sat, 5 Apr 2014 06:50:02 -0400
Content-Type:
text/plain
Parts/Attachments:
text/plain (220 lines)
Expires:201404052000;;190827
FPUS51 KBTV 051046
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
645 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014

VTZ006-052000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
645 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO
2 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...
BECOMING SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.
LOWS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 40. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 50. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN
90 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 30. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
$$

Expires:201404051100;;190609
ASUS41 KBTV 051030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT APR 05 2014
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-051100-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  37  34  89 S8        29.69R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    33  32  96 S6        29.73S FOG              
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    35  30  82 CALM      29.71F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     33  32  96 MISG      29.70S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   DRZL/FOG  33  31  93 CALM      29.71F VSB 1            
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    37  36  97 E3        29.68S                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    36  30  80 SE15G22   29.69S                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       33  33 100 CALM      29.73F VSB 1/4          
HIGHGATE*      MIX PCPN  41  36  81 S5        29.67R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    35  32  87 S8        29.68S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    40  35  83 CALM      29.68F                  
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     34 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     27 N/A N/A S8          N/A                   
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     37  34  87 S13         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     36  34  93 S20         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     36  34  93 S7          N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;185464
FXUS61 KBTV 050821
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
421 AM EDT SAT APR 5 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH 
SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS. 
SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING ABOVE 1500 FEET WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S 
MOUNTAINS AND 40S VALLEYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY 
CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE POTENTIAL FOR
UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN FOLLOWED BY
TEMPS/WINDS. SFC ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRNT ACRS CENTRAL NY ATTM
WITH GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 30 TO 40 KNOTS OBSERVED
BEHIND THIS FEATURE. ALSO...NOTED SECONDARY 5H VORT DROPPING ACRS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE IN
TROF AXIS...WHICH WL IMPACT OUR CWA THIS AFTN. SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ACCUMULATING UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTN/EVENING...WITH GOOD MOISTURE FROM SFC THRU
700MB...FAVORABLE 270 TO 290 FLW OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...AND SOME
ENHANCED 1000 TO 700MB OMEGA...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE WESTERN
SLOPES/NORTHERN DACKS BTWN 18Z-03Z. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE FREEZING
LEVEL DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS STRONG LLVL CAA DEVELOPS AND
PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL BTWN -8C AND -10C. THINKING THIS WL RESULT
IN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 20S ACRS THE MTNS WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL EXPECTED DOWN TO 1200 FEET EXPECTED BY THIS AFTN/EVENING.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE BTWN 3-5 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET BY 06Z
TONIGHT WHERE RATIOS WL BE HIGHER TO A DUSTING TO 3 INCHES ABOVE
1200 FEET...WITH LOWER SNOW RATIOS ASSOCIATED WITH WARMER BL
CONDITIONS. ONCE AGAIN THIS ACCUMULATIONS WL BE BY 06Z SUNDAY. WL
MENTION LIKELY TO CAT POPS ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM SUGARBUSH
TO STOWE TO JAY PEAK AND ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS...WITH BEST TIME
PERIOD FOR PRECIP BTWN 18Z-03Z. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLW WL LIMIT
PRECIP/QPF ACRS THE CPV AND LWR CT RIVER VALLEY TODAY...THEREFORE
WL MENTION CHC POPS. EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUD SKIES WITH UPSTREAM
SATL PICS SHOWING PLENTY OF STRATUS CUMULUS CLOUDS. TEMPS WL BE
TRICKY WITH LLVL CAA...BUT THINKING L/M 40S VALLEYS TO TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE U20S/L30S MTNS ABOVE 1200 FT. IN ADDITION...THE
LLVL CAA WL BE ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY WEST WINDS AT 15 TO
30 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE ALIGNED VALLEYS
AND EXPOSED TRRN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC 
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NE CONUS...WHICH WL PROVIDE IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR SUGARING WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS. ANY
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE/WEAKEN BY 06Z
SUNDAY...AS MOISTURE AND WINDS DECREASE. WL CONT TO MENTION
CHC/LIKELY POPS THRU 06Z...THEN TAPER TWD MORNING. LOWS WL RANGE
FROM THE L20S DEEPER MTN VALLEYS TO M/U 20S ELSEWHERE. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS BTWN -2C AND -4C ON SUNDAY WITH GOOD MIXING FROM INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE WL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE M/U 30S MTNS
TO M/U 40S VALLEYS. EXPECTING A 15 TO 20 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN HIGH
TEMPS ON SUNDAY...BTWN THE VALLEYS AND MTN SUMMITS. ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE U10S TO M20S BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH A MID SLOPE THERMAL BELT LIKELY GIVEN
WARMING 925MB TO 850MB TEMPS OVERNIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL
PRODUCE LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES.
MONDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST WITH DEEP DRY
LAYER OVERHEAD THRU 18Z MONDAY. MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS/RH INCREASE
PER 1000 TO 500MB RH FIELDS FROM SW TO NE AFT 18Z MONDAY. PROGGED
85H TEMPS NEAR 2C AND 925MB NEAR 7C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO THE
50S...WITH MAYBE A 60 POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER CPV AWAY FROM LAKE
CHAMPLAIN. AS ALWAYS THIS TIME OF YEAR...WL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LLVL
THERMAL INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH COLD/FROZEN LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...RESULTING IN LIMITED MIXING WITH LIGHT WINDS. RAIN
ARRIVES TWD 00Z TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 416 AM EDT SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM OHIO 
VALLEY MONDAY EVENING INTO EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY 
MORNING...SUPPORTED BY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH 
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH. DEEP MOISTURE FROM GULF OF MEXICO ADVECTS 
NORTHWARD...AND OVERSPREADS FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING.
GREATEST FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ROUGHLY
BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z TUESDAY...WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE STEADIEST.
ITS LOOKING TO BE A MAINLY RAIN EVENT WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40...ALTHOUGH SOME COOL AIR WITH TEMPS NEAR 0C
BEING DEPICTED BETWEEN 925 AND 850 MB. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET.
DURING TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM EASTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS 
FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE AS DRY 
SLOT WORKS INTO REGION AND BEST FORCING LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. 
EXPECT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S TO 
NEAR 50. TOTAL QPF MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.25 
TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD NOT POSE ANY MAJOR 
HYDRO CONCERNS...BUT COMBINATION OF THE RAIN...AND SNOWMELT FROM
MILD WEATHER PRECEDING THE RAIN...WILL RESULT IN RISING RIVER
LEVELS AND BREAKUP AND MOVEMENT OF ICE ON SOME RIVERS...WHICH WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.
AS LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...COLD 
AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED 
RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY 
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER
UPSLOPE FAVORED NORTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. MAX TEMPS
WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH MODERATING 
TEMPERATURES. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS 
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL TO OUR NORTH SENDS ASSOCIATED FRONT ACROSS
FORECAST AREA. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 40S...WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...STEADY PRECIPITATION EXITING FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT MPV/RUT WHERE LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS AT SLK.
HAVE GONE WITH VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. CIGS
MOSTLY MVFR THROUGH 14Z...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE AT MPV.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z EXCEPT MVFR CIGS AT SLK/MPV.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...THEN
SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY MORNING AND WEST
15 TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MOSTLY MVFR IN RAIN. GUSTY SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR AT TIMES IN RAIN
SHOWERS...CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK.
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE
MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS SLK/MPV.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

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