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SKIVT-L  February 2006, Week 3

SKIVT-L February 2006, Week 3

Subject:

Impressive Temperature Differences...

From:

Scott Braaten <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 16 Feb 2006 12:20:34 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (94 lines)

I'm down in Albany right now...its in the low 50's.  Burlington has fallen 
from a morning high of 32 to 27F at the noon hour.  Plattsburgh has fallen 
even further down to 23 with light snow.  Massena is at 19 with moderate 
snow from 33F at 3am this morning.  That's an impressive daytime fall.  

Just over the Green Mountains its 37 to 38 at Morrisville and Monpelier.  
That's some low level cold air...and its reached all the way to 
Burlington.  But there's freezing rain back towards Watertown and the 
northerly drainage flow continues to dump colder and colder air into the 
area.

VAD profile from Burlington indicated a northerly wind up to 1,000ft but 
then a southerly wind (it does a 180 degree change) at 2,000ft and then a 
SW wind from 3,000ft up through 10-15K feet.  Very impressive, dense cold 
air.  It looks like the 2,000ft layer should start to mix to the surface 
this afternoon and temperatures will slowly rise in the Champlain Valley 
and continue to rise elsewhere.

High Wind looks like a serious threat later today.  60kt jet already 
overhead at 10K feet and will continue to strengthen.  Jet max tomorrow 
will be mixed down by the arctic cold front and all bets are off.  BTV's 
morning AFD was great.  This front is going to be plowing through at 50kts 
on its own if you leave upper level winds out of it.  Just picture a line 
of trucks moving through at 50kts and then add in a 70-100kt jet streak 
overhead.  Mix the upper level winds down and we should see power outages, 
tree damage, etc in a gust front situation tomorrow afternoon and evening.

I was looking at snowfall potential and the winds just look too strong for 
much in the way of upslope or significant snowfall.  A coating to isolated 
3" along the Green Mountains looks like my forecast right now.  The wind 
is just going to transport moisture so fast that it'll have a hard time 
rising, saturating, then then falling.  With this wind, anything that 
falls from 10K feet in the sky will end up 25 miles downwind. 

Just another sketchy Friday evening travel time.  Black ice, snow squalls, 
and SUV's being blown all over the place.

-Scott

Here's BTV's morning discussion...pretty entertaining.

ISSUED 602 AM EST THU FEB 16 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WELL...A THREE-RING CIRCUS WITH ICE SKATING...ROLLER COASTERS...A
WIND MACHINE AND MORE.

A VRY DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND THAT'S RATHER EVIDENT WITH A 60KT JET ARD
2-3K BFR AND AFT ARCTIC FROPA. INITIALLY...INVERSION CAPPING WNDS TO
HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT AFT FROPA..."WATCH OUT".

FIRST...BEGINNING OF SHFT STNRY BDNRY WAS STL N OF ST LWRNC VLY WITH
TMPS WELL ABV FRZG AND BEHIND THE CURVE TO ALLOW CAA DRAINAGE FM ENE.
HWVR...PATIENCE AND CLIMO WON OUT WITH AT 10Z 04008KT 28/17 WITH
COLDER...DRIER UPSTREAM (NE). THIS HAS MADE IT DOWN THE VLY TOWARDS
KART AND NOW ITS JUST AWAITING PCPN FM SW TO NE. LATEST COMPOSITES
INCLDG BUFCAN SHWS ITS COMING AND WL LKLY START AS A WINTRY MIX BUT
WITH TIME AS H8 WAA INCRS BCM A PRIMARILY FZRA EVENT FOR NRN ST LWRNC
VLY BUT EVENTUALLY CHG TO RAIN IN SW ST LWRNC VLY WHERE COLD AIR IS
NOT AS ENTRENCHED. THEREFORE...FOLLOW YDY THINKING AND CONT WNTR WX
ADV FOR ST LWRNC VLY. ATTM...XPCTG 0.1-0.25 INCH ICE ACCRETION AND
JUST NEED TO LOOK AT QPF.

SECOND...SFC LOW DEPARTS INTO QUEBEC FRI MRNG FOLLOWED BY STG ARCTIC
FNT THAT WL BE TRVLG SOME 50+ KTS IN FORWARD SPEED MVG FM KART-KCON
BTWN 12 AND 18Z!!! INCREDIBLE ISALLOBARIC FALL/RISE COUPLETS AND VRY
STG CAA WITH H8 TMPS AT KBTV FM +5C TO -10C BTWN 15-18Z AND -18C AT
21Z. MOMENTUM TRANSFERS SHLD BE INCREDIBLE AND LOOKING AT A PTNL
WIDESPREAD HIGH WND EVENT WITH NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES AND ADD
SUB-ZERO TMPS AND COLDER WNDCHLS...SOME PTNL PROBLEMS
FRI AFTN/NGT!!!

THIRD...HOW COLD?! AND WITH STG WNDS WL NEED TO BE LOOKING AT WNDCHL
CONCERNS FOR FRI NGT/SAT. GIVEN H8 TMPS AND REFERRING TO BUFKIT I AM
MUCH COLDER THAN 3 HRLY ON ANY MOS GUIDANCE AS -18C AT H8 AND 27F AT
SFC FOR 00Z SAT DOESN'T ADD UP!

ON SAT...ANTR STG ARCTIC S/W AND REINFORCING COLD SHOT ON SAT
DELIVERS H8 TMPS -24 TO -28C...THUS DON'T BUY DEFAULTED MEX VALUES OF
TEENS AND WENT 10 DEGS COLDER WITH TMPS BARELY NUDGING UPWARDS FM SAT
MRNG LOWS.

SOME GRADIENT AND RETURN FLOW CLDS CUD PREVENT A MAJOR COOL DOWN
SAT NGT...THUS HAVE PLACED IT CLOSE TO THE VEST.

GRDL MODERATING WITH SFC HIGH ACRS OH RVR VLY AND H8 WAA PTTRN WITH
SOME MINOR ENERGY FOR SOME FLURRIES/-SHSN SUN AND TMPS REBOUNDING
INTO THE TEENS.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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August 2002, Week 1
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