Expires:200603082215;;035142
FPUS51 KBTV 080853
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 AM EST WED MAR 8 2006


VTZ006-008-016>018-082215-
LAMOILLE-WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE...MONTPELIER...
ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON
352 AM EST WED MAR 8 2006

.TODAY...SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN 
THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS. LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE WINDS. 
.THURSDAY...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. A 
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OR SLEET DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. HIGHS 
IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE 
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL 
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 30S EARLY...THEN RISING INTO THE MID 40S 
BY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH 30 
PERCENT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 50. SOUTH 
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS 
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. 

$$




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FXUS61 KBTV 080852
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
351 AM EST WED MAR 8 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH ONLY SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION.  CIRRUS WILL NOT BE VERY
DENSE...SO GOING FROM SUNNY CONDITIONS TO JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SEEMS
TO BE THE MOST REASONABLE SCENARIO.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.  TRENDS NOW SUGGEST
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY
ACROSS THE AREA.  WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL HELP TO WARM THE AIRMASS AND THUS
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE SLOWER ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.  IT NOW APPEARS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OR
SLEET DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RAIN LIKELY IDEA ALL AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS FRONTOGENESIS IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE AREA...THEN LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.  WILL ONLY CARRY A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AREA IS IN WARM SECTOR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO MOST OF FRIDAY.  THUS HAVE
MENTIONED NO PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S BY MORNING.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREE RANGE.  STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION...SO WITH MIXING EXPECT WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO
45 MPH RANGE.  WILL INCLUDE THIS IN THE FORECAST.  DYNAMIC FORCING
MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY
NOT BE THAT STRONG TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.  THUS WILL
ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NO CHANGES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME. FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO NO REAL SURGES OF COLD AIR ALONG
WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD THEREFORE BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS AREA WIDE OVER COURSE OF NEXT 24 HOURS AS
SFC RIDGE AXIS CRESTS ATOP REGION. CLR SKIES TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY
TO SCT-BKN MID/HI CIGS FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS BROAD WAA
ALOFT OVERSPREADS AREA FROM SW. CONDS TO REMAIN DRY HOWEVER...WITH
ANY PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER 06Z THUR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...JMG





FXUS61 KBTV 080235
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
935 PM EST TUE MAR 7 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER FA TONIGHT RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN PARTS OF
ADRNDKS TO LOW TO MID TEENS IN SC VT. GOING FCST HAS IT ALL
COVERED...SO NO UPDATE NEEDED ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 433 PM EST TUE MAR 7 2006/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION...WITH
PRECIPITATION LIKELY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
COLD ENOUGH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...THAT A MIX
OF PRECIPITATION OF SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. EXPECT RAIN TO
TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS
MOS MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK TOO COOL...SO HAVE UPPED
MINS THURSDAY NIGHT ABOVE GFS MOS GUIDANCE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO WILL
GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE WL SHIFT INTO WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE TROF
DEVELOPS ACRS THE CENTRAL HIGHS PLAINS. THIS WL PROVIDE EASTERN
CONUS WITH BROAD SW FLW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOWS TRACKING TO OUR WEST. THIS TRACK WL PLACE FA IN WARM SECTOR
WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP FALLING AS LIQUID INSTEAD OF SNOW...AND
TEMPS WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF
ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES WL BE DIFFICULT...BUT CRNT DATA
WOULD PLACE BEST CHCS FOR POPS ON SUNDAY...THEN AGAIN ON NEXT
TUESDAY. THERMAL PROFILES BCM COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON SUNDAY NITE INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. OTHERWISE...HPC TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
SOUNDING AND 85H DATA.

AVIATION...
VIS SAT PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CLR SKIES ACRS FA THIS AFTN ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC RIDGE...THEREFORE EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS THRU 18Z WEDS. NAM
BUFKIT LLVL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE HIGHLY OVERDONE DUE TO
EVAPORATION/SNOW MELT/COOLER LLVL TEMPS...THEREFORE THE MODEL IS
DISPLAYING TOO MUCH LLVL MOISTURE. WL MENTION LIGHT WINDS/CLR SKIES
TONIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$









FXUS61 KBTV 072133
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
433 PM EST TUE MAR 7 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION...WITH
PRECIPITATION LIKELY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
COLD ENOUGH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...THAT A MIX
OF PRECIPITATION OF SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. EXPECT RAIN TO
TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS
MOS MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK TOO COOL...SO HAVE UPPED
MINS THURSDAY NIGHT ABOVE GFS MOS GUIDANCE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO WILL
GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE WL SHIFT INTO WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE TROF
DEVELOPS ACRS THE CENTRAL HIGHS PLAINS. THIS WL PROVIDE EASTERN
CONUS WITH BROAD SW FLW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS AND ASSOCIATED
SFC LOWS TRACKING TO OUR WEST. THIS TRACK WL PLACE FA IN WARM SECTOR
WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP FALLING AS LIQUID INSTEAD OF SNOW...AND
TEMPS WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF
ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURES WL BE DIFFICULT...BUT CRNT DATA
WOULD PLACE BEST CHCS FOR POPS ON SUNDAY...THEN AGAIN ON NEXT
TUESDAY. THERMAL PROFILES BCM COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW ASSOCIATED
WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON SUNDAY NITE INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. OTHERWISE...HPC TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
SOUNDING AND 85H DATA.
&&

.AVIATION...
VIS SAT PIC SHOWS PLENTY OF CLR SKIES ACRS FA THIS AFTN ASSOCIATED
WITH SFC RIDGE...THEREFORE EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS THRU 18Z WEDS. NAM
BUFKIT LLVL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE HIGHLY OVERDONE DUE TO
EVAPORATION/SNOW MELT/COOLER LLVL TEMPS...THEREFORE THE MODEL IS
DISPLAYING TOO MUCH LLVL MOISTURE. WL MENTION LIGHT WINDS/CLR SKIES
TONIGHT.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER








   This data is from the [3]IWIN (Interactive Weather Information
   Network)

References

   1. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/vt/discussion.html
   2. http://www.weather.gov/inlr.php
   3. http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/main.html

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