Expires:202107172000;;000039
FPUS51 KBTV 170752
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
349 AM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021
VTZ018-172000-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
349 AM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021
.TODAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Highs in the
upper 60s. Light and variable winds.
.TONIGHT...Rain likely until midnight, then rain after midnight.
Rain may be heavy at times after midnight. Lows in the upper 50s.
East winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain
near 100 percent.
.SUNDAY...Rain, mainly in the morning. Rain may be heavy at times
in the morning. Highs in the upper 60s. East winds around 10 mph.
Chance of rain 90 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Lows
around 60. East winds around 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 70s. Light and variable winds.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows around 60.
.TUESDAY...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs
in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 70 percent.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 50s.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 50s.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 60s.
$$
Expires:202107171100;;007742
ASUS41 KBTV 171030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT JUL 17 2021
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-171100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 65 61 87 E6 30.11R
MONTPELIER PTCLDY 63 61 93 S3 30.18R
MORRISVILLE CLEAR 60 59 96 CALM 30.13R
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 63 61 93 MISG 30.11R
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 60 59 97 CALM 30.16R
MIDDLEBURY* LGT RAIN 63 62 95 CALM 30.12R
RUTLAND* LGT RAIN 65 65 100 N5 30.12R
SPRINGFIELD LGT RAIN 67 65 93 CALM 30.11R
HIGHGATE* FAIR 64 63 96 CALM 30.10S
NEWPORT* FAIR 60 57 91 SW3 30.15R FOG
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 68 66 93 CALM 30.09S
ISLAND POND* N/A 57 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 57 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 57 N/A N/A E9 N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 68 68 100 SE3 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 68 63 83 NW5 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 68 64 88 SE3 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;002245
FXUS61 KBTV 170823
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
423 AM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain will trend heavier and farther north today into
tonight as low pressure at the surface and aloft advances
through the region. Steady rain will give way to additional
showers lingering longest over eastern Vermont into Sunday
night as the system is slow to depart. Seasonably warm weather
returns for early week with best shower and thunderstorm
chances on Tuesday, then cooler from Wednesday onward with an
upper trough overhead.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 423 AM EDT Saturday...A wet weekend is in store for the
North Country. Regional surface analysis shows high relative
humidity across the area with areas of patchy fog and light rain
showers streaming east-northeastward across much of the
northern portions of New York State into central Vermont. Upper-
air analysis shows that this rain is tied to a mid-level front
with a sharp mid-level moisture gradient gradually lifting
northward. Rain will take its time spreading into northern areas
as sufficient vertical motion for the rain will initially be
tied to this frontal boundary. Heavier rainfall will be tied to
a surge of deeper moisture, characterized by precipitable water
in excess of 2 standard deviations above normal, tied to the
main wave of low pressure that will arrive tonight. The exact
orientation of mid and surface pressure will determine where the
heaviest rain develops, but currently expect steady rain with
briefly heavier rainfall rates to lift north and eastward after
midnight through all but northwestern portions of the St.
Lawrence Valley. Longest duration may be over central Vermont
and the northern Adirondacks where rainfall amounts have trended
upward a little bit. This area now projects to see 1 to 1.25
inches with most of this falling overnight Saturday. Maximum
total precipitation currently looks like 1.5 inches, which would
preclude a flood threat. Compared with our neighbors to our
south, current soil moisture is under 40% area-wide and
groundwater levels are near normal in the wettest areas.
Therefore, it would take a combination of convective, heavy
rainfall and rainfall closer to 3 inches to produce flash
flooding. Even when rain is not falling, thick clouds will be in
place and keep a narrow diurnal range with daytime temperatures
in the upper 60s to low 70s and lows mainly 60 to 65. Stable
conditions and lack of surface gradient flow today will mean
calm winds are expected through tonight.
For tomorrow, surface low pressure will emerge over southeastern
New York promoting an increasing northeasterly flow over the
North Country, keeping temperatures cool. At the same time, an
upper-level trough will still be to our west, so divergence
aloft will combine with the moist, cyclonic surface flow to
promote additional showers during the day. Best chances for
persistent rain is over Vermont, although scattered to numerous
showers are possible farther west under the trough. With this
trend towards a slower end of the wet weather, cloudy skies will
hold on and again limit heating. Trended temperatures quite a
bit lower, and similar to Saturday, with comma head of clouds
associated with the low-pressure system expected to linger over
most of the area, except perhaps far western portions of
northern New York highs could reach into the upper 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 337 AM EDT Saturday...There is an increasing consensus in the
00Z NWP guidance suite that mid-level trough will progress ewd more
slowly than prior thinking. Anticipate a closed 700mb low moving
slowly ewd across wrn New England during Sunday night, and then
gradually becoming an open wave as the trough finally reaches the
Gulf of Maine late in the day Monday. Kept 30-50% PoPs for Sunday
night, focused primarily across VT with the highest PoPs across
s-central VT. Difficult to determine the exact evolution of
precipitation in vcnty of the closed low, but may see some localized
rainfall in excess of 0.25" Sunday night across central/s-central VT
with slow moving shower activity, and likely <0.10" elsewhere.
Should see some partial clearing from NW-SE during the daylight hrs
Monday, along with light N-NW flow. A few daytime showers are
possible with peak afternoon heating, primarily over the higher
terrain of the northern Adirondacks and central/srn Green Mtns. Lows
Sunday night generally upper 50s to mid 60s under cloudy skies, and
then reaching the lower 80s with developing sunshine across the
Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys on Monday. Cloudiness is expected
to be more widespread east of the Green Mtns, where Monday afternoon
highs will generally remain in the upper 70s based on current
indications.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 337 AM EDT Saturday...Not much change from previous forecast
thinking for the long-term period. A strong, high amplitude ridge
across the Intermountain West will result in a nwly flow regime
extending from central Canada into the northern Great Lakes and New
England through much of the period. The strongest embedded shortwave
trough arrives Tuesday afternoon with a period of strong mid-level
height falls and well-defined upper diffluence. Favorable QG
dynamics and an accompanying low-level trough or cold front
should result in scattered to numerous showers and embedded
thunderstorms, especially if best forcing coincides with the
peak daytime heating hrs. Still appears to be the period of
highest PoPs, with 60-75% forecast Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday evening. A few stronger storms are possible, aided by
steep mid-level lapse rates. Valley highs are expected in the
lower 80s on Tuesday, but then we should see slightly cooler
conditions Wednesday and Thursday (highs mid-upper 70s) with
modest humidity levels with broad upper trough in place.
Maintained additional chances for showers (PoPs 30-50%) during
the Wednesday thru Friday time frame.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions will continue through about
14Z at all sites, followed by steady and increasingly heavy
rainfall gradually pushing from south to north. Therefore, have
visibility trending downward beginning at 14Z at RUT, 21Z at
SLK, and 02Z at MPV, with sites farther north less likely to see
steady rain through 06Z. Along with the visibility restrictions,
ceilings will steadily lower with MVFR and possibly IFR
conditions also spreading northward into the three
aforementioned TAF sites. Winds through several thousand feet
will be light with stable boundary layer conditions during the
period, resulting in generally calm or variable surface winds.
Outlook...
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Patchy BR.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Kutikoff
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