Expires:202301051900;;135745
FPUS51 KBTV 051113
ZFPBTV
Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
609 AM EST Thu Jan 5 2023
VTZ018-051900-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
609 AM EST Thu Jan 5 2023
.TODAY...Cloudy. A chance of light rain this morning, then a
slight chance of rain showers this afternoon. Highs in the upper
30s. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph this
morning. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.TONIGHT...Cloudy with a chance of freezing rain. Snow and rain
likely, mainly until midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. Southeast
winds around 10 mph until midnight, becoming light and variable.
Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
.FRIDAY...A chance of freezing rain in the morning. Cloudy with a
chance of snow and rain. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch possible.
Highs in the mid 30s. Light and variable winds. Chance of
precipitation 50 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. Light and
variable winds.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of snow
showers. Light snow accumulation possible. Highs in the mid 30s.
Northwest winds around 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows 15 to 20.
.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 20s.
Lows around 20.
.MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 30s.
Lows in the mid 20s.
.TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower
30s. Lows in the mid 20s.
$$
Expires:202301051200;;136569
ASUS41 KBTV 051130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST THU JAN 05 2023
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-051200-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 38 35 89 S7 29.90R
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 39 34 82 S7 29.98R
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 39 36 89 VRB3 29.92F
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 36 34 92 MISG 29.95R
LYNDONVILLE* N/A 34 33 95 E6 29.95F WCI 29
MIDDLEBURY* DRIZZLE 39 39 100 S6 29.92R
RUTLAND* LGT RAIN 41 39 93 SE12 29.94R
SPRINGFIELD LGT RAIN 37 37 100 CALM 30.00R
HIGHGATE* N/A 35 34 96 SW3 29.90R
NEWPORT* CLOUDY 36 35 96 S7 29.93R WCI 30
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 44 37 76 CALM 29.95R
LAKE EDEN* N/A 37 N/A N/A W3 N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 30 N/A N/A E13G31 N/A WCI 20
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 34 34 100 SW7 N/A WCI 28
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 37 36 93 S23 N/A WCI 26
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 37 36 93 S13 N/A WCI 29
$$
Expires:No;;131490
FXUS61 KBTV 050922
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
422 AM EST Thu Jan 5 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain and a few pockets of freezing rain will wind down this
morning with mainly cloudy and quiet conditions through the rest
of the day. Chances of light snow increase on Friday and linger
into Saturday, especially in higher terrain. Otherwise, mainly
dry conditions are expected into the middle of next week while
temperatures trend back above normal following chilly conditions
on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 422 AM EST Thursday...An additional, widespread area of
moderate precipitation, associated with an organizing low level
warm front, is currently moving northeastward into the Champlain
Valley. Where temperatures are just below freezing, such as in
portions of Clinton and Essex Counties, New York, some hazardous
travel conditions are expected and winter weather advisories
remain in place. Thankfully, temperatures are largely just above
freezing in most locations farther east, so moving through this
morning, mainly higher elevations and portions of the Northeast
Kingdom will see chances for freezing rain with otherwise still
a cold rain for much of our region.
For the rest of the day between the Adirondacks and the Greens,
on the heels of the warm front, much warmer air will make it to
the surface on southeasterly flow. High temperatures have
trended even warmer, with temperatures in the mid 40s in most
areas. Meanwhile, cold air damming around surface high pressure
in southeastern Canada will keep temperatures relatively steady
and cool east of the Greens aside from locally downsloped areas,
with temperatures mainly in the mid 30s. Finally, across the St.
Lawrence Valley and western Adirondacks, low clouds and drizzle
will pockets of light rain are expected for much of the day
with temperatures mainly in the mid and upper 30s.
Tonight there remains ill-defined areas of forcing for light
precipitation. Best chances for light rain/snow or even freezing
drizzle based on lack of cloud ice will be over Vermont
overnight. Continued southerly low level flow should keep
temperatures warm enough for all rain west of the Greens, with
some light, wet snow accumulation possible in the higher terrain
and likely inconsequential mixed precipitation in lower
elevations.
On Friday, accumulating light snow should become more widespread
in our region associated with better upper level forcing.
However, there is too much model variation to bring
precipitation chances into the likely category at this time with
some indications the northern extent of precipitation misses our
region entirely. Generally have higher chances of light snow
over southern and eastern Vermont Friday afternoon, which would
be somewhat elevation dependent based on thermal profiles when
it comes to accumulations. Temperatures at the surface will tend
to be near or above freezing but will be below freezing aloft
given the cold pool moving across our region, so precipitation
type should be a high density (wet) snow if it materializes.
Otherwise, skies will tend to remain cloudy and winds rather
light with lack of a significant surface low development.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 259 AM EST Thursday...Mid/upper lvl trof sharpens on
Friday night into Sat as additional s/w energy crosses
central/southern cwa. Did bump pops to chc/low likely for the
favorable upslope regions of the northern Dacks and parts of the
central/northern Greens during this time frame. Looks like a low
qpf/snowfall for the mtns. Better 850 to 700mb moisture is
quickly exiting our cwa by 00z Sunday, as drier air develops on
modest 925mb to 850mb winds of 25 to 35 knots and associated
caa. The flow is not overly strong and low level uvv fields are
minimal, so any snowfall accumulation wl generally be in the
dusting to a few inches acrs the trrn. Any positive gain at this
point is good news. Progged 925mb temps btwn -4C and -6C on
Saturday morning, cool to -10C to -12C by 06z Sunday, supporting
lows finally returning close to normal by Sun morning. However,
given caa arrives during the day on Saturday, have kept temps in
the mid/upper 20s mtns to mid/upper 30s warmer valleys, with
some mix rain/snow possible. Lows drop back into the teens with
locally near 20F near Lake Champlain, as water temp is in the
lower 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 259 AM EST Thursday...A relatively quiet and uneventful
period anticipated as mid/upper lvl trofs quickly lifts and
zonal flow returns to the eastern conus. This general idea
supports temps returning to above normal lvls by early next week
with mainly dry conditions prevailing. Watching weak embedded
s/w energy passing to our south on Monday, but given fast
confluent flow aloft acrs our cwa, expect most of the
moisture/forcing to stay south of cwa. Progged 925mb temps warm
btwn -2C and -4C by Monday and warm btwn 0C and +2C by Tuesday,
supporting highs in the 30s Monday and mid 30s to lower 40s by
Tuesday. Some signs toward mid week that additional northern
stream energy may try to deepen mid/upper lvl trof acrs the
eastern conus and provide cwa with quick shot of cooler air. The
timing and evolution of this potential is not handled very well
with latest guidance, so have kept close to NBM for now. Plenty
of time to trend temps and make necessary adjustments to
pops/qpf over the next 3 to 4 days.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Challenging aviation forecast with a
variety of ceiling heights and visibilities as rain becomes
more intermittent over the next six hours as a warm front lifts
north of the region. Currently seeing VFR conditions at RUT,
MVFR at MSS, and IFR or LIFR elsewhere as steady precipitation
exits northern New York. Precipitation, mainly a cold rain, will
end last at EFK as soon as 09Z. While ceilings should improve
to MVFR at most sites aside from MSS, expect a mix of low
ceilings and visibilities by 00Z associated with plentiful low
level moisture and light surface winds.
As with ceilings, winds will be changeable. While
surface winds will generally be under 10 knots once the warm
front passes, at MPV and RUT there will be mainly 12 to 18 kt
southeasterly winds through much of the period, with winds
relaxing below 10 knots towards 00Z. At BTV, expect
southeasterly LLWS to diminish as northerly surface winds
become likewise southeasterly by 10Z, with a similar scenario of
southerly LLWS at PBG. Meanwhile, gusty northeast winds at KMSS
will trend light and variable by 10Z with southwesterly low
level wind shear between 10Z and 13Z. Similar scenario of
directional LLWS at SLK with southwest winds at 2000 feet
associated with the warm front with northeasterly surface winds
until about 10Z when surface winds become southerly.
Outlook...
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance
SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
VTZ003-004-007.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
NYZ026>028-030-031-034.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Kutikoff
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