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September 2021, Week 5

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Subject:
From:
Wesley Wright <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Wed, 29 Sep 2021 06:50:02 -0400
Content-Type:
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Expires:202109292000;;356485
FPUS51 KBTV 290925
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
520 AM EDT Wed Sep 29 2021


VTZ018-292000-
Eastern Addison-
Including the cities of Bristol and Ripton
520 AM EDT Wed Sep 29 2021

.TODAY...Partly sunny this morning, then mostly cloudy with a
slight chance of showers this afternoon. Highs in the lower 50s.
Northwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain
showers. Lows in the lower 40s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 40s. North winds 15 to 20 mph. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Northwest
winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. Northwest winds
10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Patchy dense fog. Lows in the
lower 40s. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Patchy dense fog. Highs in the mid 50s.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 50s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the lower 40s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 50s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. 

$$


Expires:202109291100;;358512
ASUS41 KBTV 291030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2021

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-291100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    46  44  93 CALM      29.95S                  
MONTPELIER     FOG       40  39  97 CALM      29.99R VSB 1/4          
MORRISVILLE    FOG       38  38 100 CALM      29.97R VSB 1/2          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     40  39  97 MISG      29.95R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       33  33  99 CALM      29.96S VSB 1/4          
MIDDLEBURY*    MOCLDY    40  40  99 CALM      29.96R                  
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     38  38 100 SE6       29.97R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       38  38 100 CALM      29.96S VSB 3/4          
HIGHGATE*      MOCLDY    46  46  97 CALM      29.96R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    37  34  92 S3        29.96S                  
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     40  39  97 CALM      29.97R FOG              
ISLAND POND*     N/A     34 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     30 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     37 N/A N/A NE1         N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     39 N/A N/A NW14        N/A  WCI  31          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     52  48  87 SE3         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     52  46  82 W9          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     48  45  87 SE5         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;356389
FXUS61 KBTV 290921
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
521 AM EDT Wed Sep 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will deepen across the region today 
and continue through the rest of the week. This will provide the
North Country with unsettled weather and cool temperatures, as 
plenty of clouds prevail. This fall like pattern looks to 
prevail into the upcoming weekend with temperatures slowly 
returning to near normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 520 AM EDT Wednesday...Quick update to increase areal
coverage of fog acrs eastern VT, including parts of the NEK for
the next 1 to 2 hours.

Water vapor showing deep closed mid/upper lvl circulation north
of the Saint Lawrence Valley, with mid lvl moisture moving 
toward our fa. The closed circulation is expected to move 
southward into our fa by tonight, resulting in plenty of clouds 
and areas of light showers. A rather cool and raw late Sept day 
is anticipated as strato cumulus clouds develop, along with 
pockets of showers, especially higher trrn of the dacks into 
mtns of central/northern VT. Best short wave energy arrives 
toward 18z today, so anticipate an increase in areal coverage of
showers this aftn, especially as weak instability develops from
cold pocket of 500mb temps of -20c to -25c. In addition, modest
850 mb upslope flow of 15 to 25 knots wl help to enhance precip
acrs the mtns this aftn/evening. Have noted some meso- scale 
models developing some enhanced lake effect off Lake Champlain 
this evening, associated with moderate lake induced instability 
and aligned northerly flow with vort. Have increased pops to 
cover this potential, along with placing slightly higher qpf in 
the cpv/western slopes, but still mostly light precip 
anticipated. Guidance has warmed 925mb to 850mb thermal profiles
just a little on latest runs with 850mb temps just above 0C, 
while 925mb values cool btwn 4-5C by 12z Thurs. Not super crazy 
about snowfall potential, given warm profiles, but a few flakes 
are possible overnight above 4000 feet acrs the dacks and 
highest peaks of the Greens. Highs today struggle in the upper 
40s mtn towns to mid/upper 50s warmest valleys. Lows tonight 
generally 30s and 40s given winds/clouds with highs similar 
again on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 359 AM EDT Wednesday...Upper level low pressure system 
will linger to our northeast during the Thursday night into 
Friday timeframe. Our region will remain under cyclonic flow, 
and have mentioned scattered showers in the Northeast Kingdom 
closest to the upper level low center. Minimum temperatures 
Thursday night will be quite cold, dipping into the lower 30s in
the Dacks and mid 30s in the Northeast Kingdom where there will
probably be a bit more clouds hanging around. The wider St 
Lawrence and Champlain valleys will have lows in the lower 40s. 
A ridge of surface high pressure to our southwest will build 
into the area on Friday, though upper level low remains anchored
northeast of Maine. Have continued mention for some scattered 
showers across Northeastern Vermont through Friday. High 
temperatures on Friday will be a bit cooler than seasonal 
normals, ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 359 AM EDT Wednesday...By Saturday night into Sunday 
stubborn upper level low will finally drift away from the 
region, allowing for another weak system to approach the north 
country. A low pressure system will track from the Great Lakes 
region to our southwest, and have mention of showers across our 
southwestern zones in the Saturday through Sunday timeframe. 
From later Sunday through mid week upper level ridging will 
build into our area and quieter weather is anticipated. There is
still lots of uncertainty amongst the models that far out, but 
have gone with a generally drier forecast for that period.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...VFR conditions with pockets of mid level
clouds are impacting our taf sites this morning. Expecting some
brief fog/br possible at MPV/EFK as temps fall below cross over
values with light winds and clear skies. However, clouds wl 
increase toward sunrise and should limit duration of potential 
IFR conditions. Clouds wl continue to lower and thicken on Weds 
with MVFR cigs developing at SLK by aftn and expanding to most 
TAF sites by 00z Thurs. Winds are north/northwest 4 to 8 knots 
with some higher values during the aftn hours. 

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Isolated SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Taber

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