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May 2020, Week 4

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Subject:
From:
Wesley Alan Wright <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Thu, 28 May 2020 06:50:03 -0400
Content-Type:
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Expires:202005282000;;878403
FPUS51 KBTV 281020
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont
National Weather Service Burlington VT
616 AM EDT Thu May 28 2020


VTZ006-282000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
616 AM EDT Thu May 28 2020

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy this morning, then becoming partly sunny.
Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers after
midnight. Lows in the upper 60s. South winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance
of rain 20 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. A chance of showers with a slight chance
of thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and thunderstorms
likely in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty
winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall in the afternoon. Highs in
the mid 80s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may
produce gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall. Lows in the
lower 60s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
Chance of rain 90 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Not as warm with highs in the lower 70s. West winds 10 to 15 mph
with gusts up to 25 mph. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 60s. 

$$


Expires:202005281100;;878844
ASUS41 KBTV 281030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2020

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-281100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    72  61  68 S12       30.10R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    67  61  81 S7        30.17R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    63  61  93 SW3       30.13R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     67  61  81 MISG      30.12R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      65  61  88 CALM      30.17R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    MOCLDY    69  62  78 S12G17    30.15R                  
RUTLAND*       MOCLDY    64  64 100 SE3       30.17R                  
SPRINGFIELD    PTCLDY    62  60  93 VRB3      30.18R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      74  65  72 S7        30.10R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      67  65  94 S5        30.14R                  
BENNINGTON     MOCLDY    64  61  90 CALM      30.19R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     66 N/A N/A SW6         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     59 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     61 N/A N/A SW1         N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     63 N/A N/A SW15        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     68  61  77 S10         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     64  59  82 S22         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     72  64  78 S10         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;878298
FXUS61 KBTV 281016
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
616 AM EDT Thu May 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm, but not recording breaking day is expected as
temperatures warm into the lower to middle 80s today. Rain 
showers will move into northern New York Thursday night into 
Friday morning, followed by the potential for strong to severe 
thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening with the passage of 
the first of 2 cold fronts. A few storms will be capable of
strong, gusty winds and locally heavy downpours. An additional 
cold front on Saturday will bring the return of near normal to 
slightly below normal temperatures Sunday and through the first 
half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 615 AM EDT Thursday...Updated sky grids based on satellite
obs. Everything else is on track. Have a great day!

Previous Discussion...
Period of active weather will continue. A ridge axis connected 
to the strong Bermuda High that helped create record-breaking 
warmth will lift northeastward. Upper ridging is expected to 
weaken throughout the day and intermittent clouds will keep us 
from warming as dramatically as the last couple days. Still well
above normal with highs in the low 80s to mid 80s forecast. Not
anticipating scattered showers or storms like yesterday as mid-
level temperatures warm, resulting in poor lapse rates and 
relative stability. Still, plenty of moisture in place, and we 
should see some precipitation develop as the result of warm 
advection during the evening hours associated with the remnants 
of Tropical Storm Bertha. The bulk of the precipitation will 
remain west of the St. Lawrence River, but portions of the St. 
Lawrence River Valley could see a couple tenths with decreasing 
amounts expected as you head east with little or no 
precipitation across Vermont.

Overnight, precipitation will gradually taper off. Warm, muggy air
will remain in place, so low temperature forecasts are still in the
mid 60s to lower 70s across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 352 AM EDT Thursday... Watching the potential for severe 
weather Friday afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction 
Center has much of Northern New York and western Vermont in a 
slight risk category (Level 2 of 5). The most likely threat will
be strong, gusty winds. Additionally, we'll be monitoring the 
potential for training cells that may result in localized minor 
flash flooding.

Friday will be the muggiest day of the week as dewpoints climb into 
the mid 60s. Temperatures should be relatively similar to Thursday, 
perhaps a degree or two warmer. By late morning into the early 
afternoon hours, anticipate convection to begin as surface based 
CAPE quickly rises to 800-1500 J/kg. There could be some brief 
capping that delays the onset of precipitation towards the mid-
afternoon, but think convection will get started earlier than later 
due to terrain interactions and a developing prefrontal trough. The 
first storms to pop for the day could produce locally heavy rain, 
strong downdraft wind, and perhaps some small hail. Later in the 
day, a digging trough will begin to approach the area and bulk shear 
values are anticipated to increase. A meridionally-oriented jet will 
develop and support additional convection. Combined with little 
change in wind direction with height, we could be looking at 
training convection from a sluggish cold front. These forcing 
mechanisms and increasing 0-6km bulk shear of 35 to 40 knots 
should also allow storms to begin to cluster and form transient 
linear structures or mini bowing-segments. Warm cloud depths up
to 13000ft, PWATs upwards of 1.7", and 850mb winds of 35 knots 
to our south providing moist inflow will play a role in where
the potential for training convection. Wherever the front and 
speed convergence line up will be where the threat for locally 
heavy precipitation is greatest. Based on the 00Z HREF, this 
appears to be from Essex County, New York northeastwards to 
Orleans County, Vermont. Antecedent dry conditions should 
mitigate the threat to some degree, but probability of 1" in 3 
hrs is greater than 70 percent for portions of our area. It will
be something to watch closely.

Around midnight, the first chunk of the piecemeal front will begin 
to head eastwards and expect the severe threat and heavy rain threat 
will begin to wane thereafter. Some elevated instability remains, so 
a rumble of thunder could still take place as scattered showers 
continue ahead of the wind shift to northwest, which will take place 
later in the day. We will finally start to usher in cooler weather. 
Forecast highs generally in the 70s and noticeably less muggy.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 352 AM EDT Thursday...Cold front #2 with the real push of
cooler, drier air moves through with the help of a shortwave
rotating around the bottom of the trough. There still will be enough
low level moisture and increasing lapse rates that can't rule out a
few showers will get rung out, especially in favored terrain. After
that...folks will need to put on sweatshirts as we go from 95
degrees yesterday (Wed) to Lows in the 30s/40s by Monday morning.
Well, it's been a crazy May with snow into the second week and then
the hottest May day on record on Wednesday.

Surface high pressure from Great Lakes slowly moves into area while
upper level trough steepens Monday which provide enough instability
for a sprinkle or two. Otherwise...high pressure in control through
Tuesday with building heights as upper trough shifts east and
Southern Plains Ridge attempts to build NNE but disturbances in
northern stream flow across Canada will likely dampen any heat ridge
for now. As the first disturbance moves through Tues ngt-
Wed...expect some rain showers.

Temps start cool in the upper 50s-L60s Sunday/Monday moderating into
the 60s/70 Tue/Wed. Lows in the 40s Sat Ngt...30s/40s Sun/Mon Ngts
and 40s/50 Tue Ngt.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions will prevail through the 
period. Broad SW flow aloft and deep moisture with the remnants
of Bertha will bring high clouds for much of the day. After a
few hours of surface heating some building cumulus near summit 
levels and eventually showers developing from NY by mid-late
afternoon and slowly moving east into VT largely ard/aft 00z
Fri. Vsby should be VFR except briefly MVFR in any heavier
downpours. SSW winds will increase to 10-15 kts with gusts 20+
knots aft 15z.

Outlook...

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW

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